Two-a-Days: San Francisco Giants

88-74, 3rd Place 7 GB

Positional MVP – Pablo Sandoval - .330/.387/.556 – Kung Fu Panda was at it again. The Giants’ version of Dustin Pedroia, he doesn’t look like a player, he does everything wrong, but he keeps putting up numbers. Not a patient hitter by any means he had a spectacular jump in his walk rate in his first full season which bodes well for the future.

Cy Young – Tim Lincecum – 15-7, 2.48 – Seabiscuit joins his MVP pal as the best nickname combination among the award winners. Not that he is quite at the same level of talent but he is a Pedro Martinez type, a little guy who can overpower and at the same time bewilder hitters.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Madison Bumgarner – LHP – The 19 year old’s K rate plummeted as he rose in the ranks but he posted a sub-2.00 ERA at both AA Connecticut (19 starts) and AAA San Jose (5 starts) before doing the same in ten innings of Major League work. Suffice it to say, 2009 was a nice year for Madison Bumgarner.

What Went Right – Sandoval blossomed in his first full season while the bullpen proved dominant with Brian Wilson, Brandon Medders and Jeremy Affeldt all pitching very well. One time hot prospect Jonathan Sanchez had a Buchholz-like resurgence (even including a no-hitter) seeming to finally take the step forward that everyone has been waiting for because the Giants clearly need another freakin’ good young pitcher.

What Went Wrong – Not too surprisingly Edgar Renteria was awful and Aaron Rowand also had a poor season. Travis Ishikawa failed to deliver the power that is hoped to be seen from him while on the mound Randy Johnson could not quite recapture his former brilliance.

2010 Outlook – Like I do with their Bay Area brethren I feel good about this team. With some fairly simple offensive improvements there is no reason this team is not playing meaningful baseball the last week of the season. The competitive NL West makes it difficult to confidently predict a playoff berth but they should be right there at the end.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – Resist the urge to trade pitching for hitting. Despite the glut of pitching there is no greater commodity in baseball and if the worst thing is a dominant 1-4 punch of Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner and Sanchez that’s OK. There should be plenty of offensive options out there if the Giants are smart.

(Up next – Florida Marlins)

Two-a-Days: Oakland Athletics

75-87, 4th Place 22 GB

Positional MVP – Matt Holliday - .286/.378/.454 – Contrary to the popular belief that Holliday could not get it done in the AL he actually hit pretty well. After a very poor start he posted an .880 OPS from May 1 until being traded on July 24th.

Cy Young – Andrew Bailey – 6-3, 1.84 – The rookie right-hander took over the closer role and performed more than admirably striking out 91 in 83 1/3 innings while saving 26 games and blowing just four. Bailey looks poised to be an Oakland mainstay for quite awhile.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Brett Anderson – The exciting southpaw was part of the Dan Haren trade a couple of years ago and his future is bright. He finished tenth in the AL in K/9IP and seemed to steadily improve as the season went on.

What Went Right – The pitching staff, largely untested at the start of the season, provided reason for hope with Anderson, Bailey, Dallas Braden and Josh Outman all pitched well. Even a late cameo by highly regarded Henry Rodriguez was hopeful.

Matt Holliday’s acquisition did not go quite as planned but while the team slipped out of the race early GM Billy Beane was able to flip him for promising third baseman Brett Wallace who hit .302/.365/.505 at AAA Sacramento. A bullpen anchored by Bailey, Michael Wuertz and Brad Ziegler was very good. Adam Kennedy played surprisingly well with an .831 OPS.

What Went Wrong – The presumed power of the lineup; Holliday, Jason Giambi and Jack Cust all performed below expectations effectively disassembling the offense. Outman’s terrific season was short-cutted by Tommy John surgery though at age 24 he could still have a nice career. OF Scott Hairston did not really hit after being acquired in a trade.

2010 Outlook – I like what I see here. This is a tough division but there is a nice core forming. With Anderson they may have a future Ace and Bailey can anchor the back end with guys like Dallas Braden and Trevor Cahill can help fill out the rotation. With Daric Barton finally hitting and Ryan Sweeney also impressing the pieces of the offense are coming together. Contention in 2010 may be difficult but for a team that was the fashionable sleeper pick in 2009, 2010 may well shape up as the year 2009 was supposed to be.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – I would love to see Dan Uggla in Oakland. The slugger second baseman is supposed to be available and while he is not much with the glove his lumber would help this team. Beyond that, just stay the course, most of the recent moves have brought in a nice little core.

(Up next – San Francisco Giants)

Two-a-Days: Detroit Tigers

86-77, 2nd Place 1 GB

Positional MVP – Miguel Cabrera - .324/.396/.547 – Miggy probably should have avoided getting beaten up during the final week of the season but he remains one of the most fearsome hitters in the game. Despite his oval shape Cabrera is one of the most durable players in baseball with six straight seasons of over 150 games.

Cy Young – Justin Verlander – 19-9, 3.45 – With a pitching style reminiscent in many ways of Roy Halladay, Verlander bounced back from a tough 2008 with a 269 strikeout virtuoso performance. Still just 26 he is one of the elite pitchers in the game.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Rick Porcello – RHP – Dumped into the rotation to start the year Porcello was treated with kid gloves but without the drama of Joba Chamberlain and rewarded Jim Leyland’s faith with a 3.96 ERA. He had a low strikeout rate but most who watch him pitch seem to think that will come as he grows.

What Went Right – The decision to use Porcello, like the 2006 decision to carry a young Zumaya, proved to be adept. Magglio Ordonez bounced back from a tough start to turn in a good season while Ryan Raburn had a terrific season. Little was as positive as off-season acquisition Edwin Jackson’s excellent year.

What Went Wrong – Well, the last three weeks of the season were a big steaming pile of crap. Beyond that, Joel Zumaya continued to be unable to stay healthy while 2008 sensation Armando Galarraga went over a cliff. Curtis Granderson also dropped off with a disappointing average and performance against lefties though he still showed good power.

2010 Outlook – This team should be competitive again in 2010 though one has to wonder what the struggling economics of Detroit will do to the club. Still, this is a solid team and they should be competitive once again.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – By all accounts the decision to let Polanco go and replace him with minor leaguer Scott Sizemore has already been made and that is the right one. If they can afford it pursuing John Lackey would be a good move for this club as he and Verlander up front would be devastating. On a more realistic front Adam Dunn might be a good fit as a DH for this club.

(Up next – Oakland Athletics)

Two-a-Days: San Diego Padres

75-87, 4th Place 20 GB

Positional MVP – Adrian Gonzalez - .277/.407/.551 – The Padres are insane if they deal Gonzalez for anything less than a massive package of talent. His OPS was 195 points higher than any other player with over 250 at bats on the club. That he hit 40 home runs and drove in only 99 runs was indicative of teams not pitching to him as he had a .970 OPS with RISP.

Cy Young – Heath Bell – 6-4, 2.71 – The Padre closer picked up where Trevor Hoffman left off with 42 saves. He fanned 10.2 per 9IP and gave a lot of credit to getting in shape using his Wii in the off-season.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Kyle Blanks – 1B – Blanks played well at AAA and was promoted to the big boys for his efforts. He rewarded them with an .868 OPS in 172 PA. Blanks and Gonzalez should anchor the middle of the Padre order for several years to come.

What Went Right – Kyle Blanks was a big plus giving the Pads some much needed lumber in the middle while youngsters Chase Headley (OF) and Nick Hundley (C) provided much needed help in the lineup as well. Clayton Richard, acquired in the Jake Peavy trade was decent in his short trial with the club.

What Went Wrong – The pitching was a big disappointment, to finish twelfth in the league in runs while playing at Petco is simply unacceptable. To marry that with an offense that finished 15th in the league in runs scored made even their 75-87 record surprisingly good.

2010 Outlook – If they can straighten out the pitching I think a Blanks/Gonzalez anchored offense can be good enough to improve. With an improved Diamondbacks club it will be difficult for the Padres to avoid the cellar.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – The Padres need to go against type. I believe this of any team in an extreme park and the Padres play in as extreme a park as there is. They need to pile up the hitters and accept that their numbers will be depressed by the yard.

But before they do that they need competent pitching. What they got in 2009 was just unacceptable.

(Up next – Detroit Tigers)

Two-a-Days: Houston Astros

74-88, 5th Place 17 GB

Positional MVP – Lance Berkman - .274/.399/.509 – With his first home run in 2010 Berkman will tie Reggie Smith for fifth place all time in home runs by a switch-hitter. Berkman continues to be money in the bank for the Astros carrying the offense with his 139 OPS+ comfortably pacing the club.

Cy Young – Wandy Rodriguez – 14-12, 3.02 – Wandy has flown under the radar but slowly has become one of the best lefties in baseball. His 193 Ks placed him 8th in the National League.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Jason Castro – C – The former (unsigned) Red Sox’ draft pick (43rd round in 2005) had a strong season putting up a .300/.380/.446 line across two levels with 31 doubles and ten home runs. With J.R. Towles star fading Castro may have a chance to play in the bigs in 2010.

What Went Right – Carlos Lee continued to give the Astros a solid performance while Hunter Pence reclaimed his 2007 status and centerfielder Michael Bourn turned in a nice leadoff style performance a .354 OBP and 61 steals. Miguel Tejada turned in a fine season as well.

What Went Wrong – The pitching staff really disappointed with Roy Oswalt’s 4.12 ERA being disappointing by his standards while the remainder of the rotation was a disaster with Bud Norris’ 4.53 ERA leading the other starters with ten or more starts. The offense was sunk by too many black holes with three regulars having an OPS under .700, even by NL standards that is too many free outs in the lineup.

2010 Outlook – I am frightfully pessimistic about this ballclub. The offense is top heavy and that top group isn’t THAT good while the pitching staff is pretty wretched. Barring a significantly aggressive off-season this team can contend for being the worst in baseball.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – This is another one of those teams where there isn’t much wisdom to be had beyond “get fewer crummy players.” The Astros have acted as if they could steal the division with 85-86 wins the last few years and while that almost paid off in 2006 it’s a strategy with a limited window of success and now it’s time to pay the piper.

(Up next – San Diego Padres)

Two-a-Days: Minnesota Twins

87-76, 1st Place 1 Game Ahead, Lost ALDS 3-0 (New York)

Positional MVP – Joe Mauer - .365/.444/.587 – Seriously, take a look at those numbers, that thar just ain’t right. Mauer posted a ridiculous season even stealing four bases in five attempts.

Cy Young – Joe Nathan – 2-2, 2.10 – The great closer doled out his usual level of pain and suffering to opposing batters while making most Twin games eight inning affairs.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Aaron Hicks – OF – Hicks’ first full year of pro ball left a bit to be desired as he had a .735 OPS at class A Beloit. His K/BB ratio was very good and he showed good power and projected into more.

What Went Right – Jason Kubel and Denard Span gave the Twins some offense away from the Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer group. On the mound the Twins got a great performance out of their bullpen with Jose Mijares, Matt Guerrier and Brian Duensing supporting Nathan. Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker helped to stabilize the staff.

What Went Wrong – The middle of the diamond other than Mauer was a wasteland with Alexi Casilla, Brendan Harris, Nick Punto and Carlos Gomez sucking up outs like an Oreck. Justin Morneau was injured late in the season causing him to miss the last few weeks and the playoffs. Francisco Liriano’s post-surgery comeback continued to go poorly.

2010 Outlook – This is a team that regularly contends and should be there in 2010. They should join the Tigers at the top of the division again next October.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – The ONLY thing the Minnesota Twins should be doing right now is signing Joe Mauer to a long-term contract, that is job numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. There is no 6. Once that is done I think they should aggressively pursue Roy Halladay. Even if they do not sign him long term he would give them the Ace starter they require to make a run through the playoffs in 2010.

Opening a new ballpark with Mauer signed for the foreseeable future and Halladay on the mound for Opening Day would be a dramatic shift for this franchise.

(Up next – Houston Astros)

Two-a-Days: Toronto Blue Jays

75-87, 4th Place 28 GB

Positional MVP – Adam Lind - .305/.370/.562 – As the Blue Jays seek to compete with the high powered top of the division they need a Scary Monster™ and certainly Lind is shaping up to be one of their very own. He does not bring a lot on the defensive side of the ball but he is true thunder.

Cy Young – Roy Halladay – 17-10, 2.79 – Halladay turned in yet another in a long line of masterful efforts. A slightly off-kilter August led to stage whispering that he was not handling the trade talks well but he wasn’t all that bad in that stretch.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Travis Snider – OF – Snider is expected to be a player similar to Lind but at 21 he was overmatched by big league pitching. After a return to the minors he came back late in the season and was much more impressive and seems to have earned himself a spot in the 2010 lineup.

What Went Right – J.P. Ricciardi was smart enough not to just give Roy Halladay away which seems obvious but a lot of teams have acted contrarily in the past. Aaron Hill displayed tremendous power for a middle infielder with 73 XBH while Marco Scutaro was an anchor at shortstop.

Jose Bautista seemed to have show himself as a useful utility player while Ricky Romero and Mark Rzepczynski gave the Jays some hope on the mound.

What Went Wrong – Alexis Rios had a poor year and was given away while Vernon Wells continued his slide into nothing more than the worst contract in baseball. The fate of Roy Halladay hangs over the team in gloomy fashion.

2010 Outlook – With Halladay and some growth on the mound from Romero, Rzepczynski and others a .500 plus season is attainable. Dealing Halladay would leave this team vulnerable to any pitching drop offs.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – Do not be afraid to deal Halladay in the division. The goal of making a trade is to get the best package you can get, not to worry about helping the other team. The reality is that the Blue Jays are 3-4 years away from truly competing so Halladay may or may not be helping the team he is dealt to at that point.

Also, do not trade him just to trade him, the draft picks can be pretty valuable and re-signing him would be a very good move.

(Up next – Minnesota Twins)

Two-a-Days: St. Louis Cardinals

91-71, 1st Place 7 ½ GA, Lost NLDS 3-0 (Los Angeles)

Positional MVP – Albert Pujols – .327/.443/.658 - Some players just make these decisions easy and Pujols is one of them. Pujols is simply the best player in baseball and led all of baseball in homers, runs, Slugging Percentage, OPS, OPS+ and total bases in 2009.

Cy Young – Adam Wainwright – 19-8, 2.63 – The hero of the 2006 post-season as a closer has become an elite starter. With 233 innings pitched he gave LaRussa valuable, high quality innings leading the NL in that category. In three years as a starter he has gotten progressively better.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Colby Rasmus – OF – Rasmus was a regular fixture in the Cards’ lineup from the second day of the season. His season was maybe not quite what the Cardinals had hoped for with just a .714 OPS but at only 22 he should be able to grow from there.

What Went Right – Stop me if you’ve heard this before but Dave Duncan got the most out of his pitching staff. With Wainwright and Chris Carpenter at the front of the rotation the Cardinals also got a terrific effort from Joel Pineiro who deservedly won 15 games while Ryan Franklin seized the closer’s role with gusto.

Skip Schumaker and Brendan Ryan gave the Cardinals more than they’d hoped for from their keystone combination while mid-season acquisitions Julio Lugo, John Smoltz and Matt Holliday gave positive contributions of varying degrees.

What Went Wrong – Somewhat predictably Ryan Ludwick suffered through a bit of a downturn while promising rookie Jason Motte failed to establish himself in the bullpen. Mark DeRosa, acquired to solidify the infield, struggled to get his bat going.

2010 Outlook – This is a well rounded team. With Wainwright and Carpenter at the front of the rotation and Pujols in the middle of the lineup it is hard to envision a scenario where even the most inept GM could not put together a team capable of reaching the mid-80s in wins and the Cardinals are run better than that.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – This is a well supported team that has some money to spend. I would target Matt Holliday aggressively as he and Pujols provide a potent 1-2 punch in the middle of the order that Red Sox fans can surely recognize from the days of Ramirez/Ortiz terrorizing opponents.

(Up next - Toronto Blue Jays)

Two-a-Days: New York Mets

70-92, 4th Place 23 GB

Positional MVP – David Wright - .307/.390/.447 – Wright’s season incredibly was viewed as a disappointment by many. This is a classic example of the folly of blaming the best player for the failures of others. Wright certainly suffered an odd loss of power but it is hard to quibble with a guy who plays defense the way he does and gets on base 40% of the time.

Cy Young – Johan Santana – 13-9, 3.13 – Despite missing the last few weeks of the year due to injury Santana pitched well. “Well” is not what the Mets are looking for from him though and while a 3.13 ERA is very good the Mets need him to return to his previous level in 2010.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Fernando Martinez – OF – The 20 year old played very well at AAA Buffalo displaying excellent power and earned a call up. He struggled at the big league level but he is so young it is unfair to be too critical of that.

What Went Right – Um…no one actually died. What a disaster. I honestly don’t see anything positive to speak with any confidence about. Even the little that went right was a negative as Jeff Francoeur played just well enough after being acquired for the Mets to keep him around so that he can return to his established sub-.300 OBP, offense draining level for 600 PA in 2010.

What Went Wrong – Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran combined to miss 343 games due to injury. When you lose the 1st, 3rd and 4th hitters in your lineup, bad things are going to happen. The ’27 Yankees wouldn’t have won 100+ games if Earle Combs, Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig missed 2/3rds of the season and I think being critical of the Mets is a bit unreasonable.

Still, the Mets also acted poorly. Oliver Perez is a proven hit or miss guy who goes through helpless stretches. As Joe Sheehan wrote at Baseball Prospectus if you sign a guy like this to a three year contract why do you send him down after just five horrible starts?

Maybe the most fortunate guy in New York this year was Francisco Rodriguez. A 3.71 ERA and the worst save percentage of his career as a closer was most assuredly NOT what the Mets were paying for last winter.

2010 Outlook – Assuming a return to form of the three key players injured would make this team a potential contender right away. I don’t think that’s a fair thing to assume though. Beltran should be alright but Reyes is a speed guy coming back from a leg injury and Delgado is at an age where injuries result in greatly reduced performance.

Beyond that is a pitching staff in disarray. After Santana there isn’t a lot to be hopeful about. I think the Mets are more likely to be under 80 wins than over 90 in 2010.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – Resist the calls and urges to deal David Wright. Wright is still a terrific player and while the loss of power and increase in strikeouts is troubling I don’t think you can read too much into it. With Delgado and Beltran aging and Reyes battling the leg injury Wright is the future of this franchise.

(Up next – St. Louis Cardinals)

Two-a-Days: Texas Rangers

87-75, 2nd Place 10 GB

Positional MVP – Michael Young - .322/.374/.518 – The year opened with Young vocally objecting to a move to third base, it concluded with Young the shining star of a surprising Ranger team. He adapted to third base rather well and provided offense commiserate with the corner infield spot.

Cy Young – Kevin Millwood – 13-10, 3.67 – The high priced Millwood has never lived up to his advance billing with the Braves so many years ago but he has been very good. He is sort of A.J. Burnett without the attention and he gave the Rangers much needed innings in the Texas heat.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Netfali Feliz – RHP – Feliz pitched well at AAA Oklahoma City before being called up and put in the bullpen mid year. With the Rangers Feliz became a dominant reliever reminiscent of Joba Chamberlain two years ago. Like Chamberlain the Rangers will now face the decision of where to slot their talented righty.

What Went Right – The pitching proved to be surprisingly steady. While they did not feature great starting they had solid performances throughout the rotation and the bullpen was universally good. Rookie shortstop Elvis Andrus had a lot of pressure on him being handed the job and with Young’s comments but he performed admirably flashing the leather that was his calling card while providing decent offense.

Julio Borbon looks like a potential classic leadoff hitter and Andruw Jones gave the club a surprising contribution.

What Went Wrong – 2008’s star Josh Hamilton continued a fade that began in the second half of ’08 and also suffered significant injuries. The apparent catching glut they had in the Spring looks vastly different eight months later after Saltalamacchia, Teagarden and Ramirez all had down years.

Derek Holland had a rough year though I still feel he will be a top flight starter.

2010 Outlook – They are a tough team to read. I would expect a bit of a drop off as the pitching staff’s performance almost universally appears unlikely to be repeated. This could change if youngsters Holland and Feliz can take the next step.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – Stay the course. They’ve got some good young pitching and even if Chris Davis is not the answer Justin Smoak looms hopefully in the minors. Like any club that plays in a hitters’ park I think they should value innings-eating starters more than others.

(Up next – New York Mets)

Two-a-Days: Boston Red Sox

95-67, 2nd Place 8GB, Lost ALDS 3-0 (Los Angeles)

Positional MVP – Kevin Youkilis - .305/.413/.548 – Youk built on his terrific 2008 campaign and has become a reliable component of the Sox’ lineup. His versatility was crucial as it allowed the Sox to mix and match things as the season progressed. It is a tribute to Youkilis that the flaws in his game as a minor leaguer, defense and power, have become strengths. That, not running out routine grounders to second, is what I consider hustle.

Cy Young – Jon Lester – 15-8, 3.41 – After an odd start where it seemed that Lester had spent the off-season breaking mirrors and walking by black cats he turned it on. His K rate jumped dramatically and he is now one of the most valuable players based on ability, age and contract, in Major League Baseball.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Lars Anderson – 1B – Disaster. Anderson’s season was not only a massive disaster it was arguably the worst season by any major prospect throughout the game. 2010 is a vital year for Anderson.

What Went Right – After disappointing 2008 seasons Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz gave the Sox reasons for optimism. Jon Lester, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia all had the types of seasons that lock players into the elite. The rebuilt bullpen proved worth the effort though it failed at the worst possible moment. J.D. Drew came through with another excellent season. Daniel Bard showed that he may be a future star.

Mid-season acquisitions proved to be astute. Victor Martinez and Alex Gonzalez were both exactly what the club needed and even Paul Byrd and Billy Wagner played a good role.

What Went Wrong – Daisuke Matsuzaka had a season mostly lost to injury though his performance upon return gives hope for 2010. Jed Lowrie also had a miserable season due in part to injury though in two years at the big league level he is yet to prove he can be healthy or produce in any way.

John Smoltz proved to be a major bust while Brad Penny was either very good or very bad depending on what month it was.

2010 Outlook – There is no reason not to feel good about 2010. The Sox will return the majority of their 95 win club and Buchholz and Matsuzaka could be the impetuts for the club being the best run preventing team in the American League.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – Don’t get hung up on Mike Lowell and David Ortiz. With 2010 being the final year of each player’s contract if the Sox can find replacements for either of these players they should do so. I do feel Ortiz has one more solid year in him though. Lowell’s health makes him an uncertainty though his production when he is in the lineup is still very good.

(Up next – Texas Rangers)

Two-a-Days: Arizona Diamondbacks

70-92, 5th Place 25 GB

Positional MVP – Justin Upton - .300/.366/.532 – In a year where big brother B.J. fizzled the 21 year old Upton brother sizzled (really, you can't get writing like this anywhere else on the web). He is truly on his way to becoming one of the great players in the game after pounding 26 home runs while stealing 20 bases. According to UZR Upton also saw a dramatic improvement in his defense. He likely will be one of the five best players in baseball in a couple of years.

Cy Young – Danny Haren – 14-10, 3.14 – With running mate Brandon Webb missing all but one start due to injury Haren had a lot put on his shoulders and he pitched very well. His K/BB ratio was the best in the NL for the second consecutive season as he whiffed 223 while walking just 38.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Jarrod Parker – RHP – Parker doled out a strong season impressing at AA before bumping up to AAA Visalia. In four starts at Visalia he had a 0.95 ERA with a 21/4 K/BB ratio. Unfortunately the injury bug got him and Tommy John surgery ended his 2009 and likely his 2010 season. At just 20 years old he has time to come back strong.

What Went Right – The youth of the Diamondbacks looked strong as catcher Miguel Montero became a strong contributor while Justin Upton emerged into stardom. RHP Max Scherzer pitched very well also suggesting his chances of becoming a top of the rotation arm were good.

Meanwhile Mark Reynolds ignored the cries that he strikes out too much to have a big season with 44 home runs. Off-season acquisition Felipe Lopez played very well also.

What Went Wrong – Brandon Webb’s injury was of course a killing blow though he has been re-signed for 2010. Stephen Drew’s on again/off again career continued as he lost 80 points off his OPS while young hurlers Yusmeiro Petit and Billy Buckner (no relation) had poor years. Chris Young continued to lose his battle with the ability to reach base.

2010 Outlook – I was high on this team when the season started and remain high on them for 2010. With Haren, Scherzer and a returning Webb the rotation is good and this is becoming a strong offensive team.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – While not as notorious as Coors Field, Chase Field is nearly as extreme a hitters’ park. The Diamondbacks have seemed to fall into the trap of old Red Sox teams of overvaluing their hitters while undervaluing their pitchers due to the pedestrian stats. They need to strengthen their outfield and first base performances to add some depth to the lineup.

(Up next – Boston Red Sox)

Two-a-Days: Colorado Rockies

92-70, 2nd Place 3GB, Lost NLDS 3-1 (Philadelphia)

Positional MVP – Troy Tulowitzki - .297/.377/.552 – Tulo rebounded from a down year in 2008 to sparkle in 2009. His power burst forth as he slammed 32 home runs but also was running with 20 stolen bases (though he was caught 11 times). After playing just 101 games in 2008 due to injury he played 151 games in 2009.

Cy Young – Ubaldo Jimenez – 15-12, 3.47 – The 2007 World Series Game Two starter stepped up to become a true top of the rotation starter. Jimenez averaged nearly a K per inning and despite pitching in Denver allowed just 13 home runs in 218 innings.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Dexter Fowler – Fowler got into the lineup in game three of the season and stuck there most of the season. With a lot of expectations for him he did a fine job with a .363 OBP and 27 steals. Fowler looks like he will join Tulowitzki in providing the Rox with strong performances up the middle for years to come

What Went Right – The pitching staff did a solid job with good depth. While they had no truly elite performances they also avoided the poor performances with the 2-5 starters (Jason Marquis, Jason Hammel, Jorge de la Rosa and Aaron Cook) all having ERAs between 4.04 and 4.38.

The trade of Matt Holliday was controversial but Huston Street got his groove back blowing just two of his 37 save chances and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez shined with an .878 OPS in 278 at bats. Youth was served in the lineup as Seth Smith delivered a quality year and Ian Stewart, another of those eternal prospect types, finally seemed to find a home at the big league level and at just 24 years old the future is bright for him.

In-season acquisitions Rafael Betancourt and Jason Giambi paid dividends.

What Went Wrong – Not a whole heck of a lot. They were similar to the Yankees in that they really did not have a lot happen where you said to yourself “wow, that was a killer.” The one big exception to that was the injury to Jeff Francis that cost him the season. Depending on his ability to return he could create a nice 1-2 punch with Jimenez at the top of the rotation.

2010 Outlook – As I write this on November 7th I would peg this team as the one to beat in the NL West. I think the pitching is legitimately good and Street with Matt Daley in front of him are a nice backend.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – If I were running the Rockies I would sign any reliever I could get my hands on. Colorado is a tough place to pitch and the ability to roll over the relievers on a nightly basis I think would prove beneficial.

(Up next – Arizona Diamondbacks)

Two-a-Days: Cleveland Indians

65-97, 4th Place (Tied) 21 ½ GB

Positional MVP – Shin-Soo Choo - .300/.394/.489 – The right fielder took a great stride forward as he hit lefties for the first time in his career. While not a slugger he notched 64 XBH while also stealing 21 bases in 23 attempts.

Cy Young – Cliff Lee – 7-9, 3.14 – Yup, they traded their best pitcher for the second straight season.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Carlos Santana – C – The possible Victor Martinez replacement destroyed AA pitching to the tune of a .943 OPS. The Tribe’s acquisition of Lou Marson from Philadelphia in the Cleveland deal makes Santana’s road to the bigs a little less straight forward though.

What Went Right – 23 year old Shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera had a fine year hitting over .300 with 42 doubles while Travis Hafner rebounded from a nightmarish 2008 though he missed significant time. Acquired in the Sabathia deal Matt LaPorta showed signs of big time power though he is a free swinger. Michael Brantley delivered some hope for the future with a nice cameo late in the season.

What Went Wrong – Grady Sizemore had a tough year by his standards then was injured for an extended period. Third baseman Jhonny Peralta’s bat went south for the winter and never came north.

The pitching was helpless as Fausto Carmona, Jeremy Sowers and David Huff all disappointed. Big ticket free agent Kerry Wood had a poor season blowing six of his 26 save opportunities and struggled with his control. Mid-season acquisitions Justin Masterson and Chris Perez were up and down. The bullpen as a group was awful.

2010 Outlook – For the first time in several seasons I do not like what I see with the Indians. While the division is poor this is a club with a lot of holes and I have a hard time envisioning them being competitive.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – I don’t earthly know what to say other than “get better players.” Sizemore, Choo and Cabrera are the only position players that look like championship caliber players while there isn’t a single pitcher that would be considered anything better than 50/50 to be a key member of a championship staff.

GM Mark Shapiro has done well the last couple of years dealing Sabathia, Lee and Martinez. Lou Marson, Matt LaPorta and Justin Masterson could all make this club look a lot better in a hurry and I am high on Nick Hagadone.

(Up next – Colorado Rockies)

Two-a-Days: Kansas City Royals

65-97, 4th Place (Tied) 21 ½ GB

Positional MVP: Alberto Callaspo - .297/.351/.440 – The 26 year old second baseman has become a solid performer. His defense does not rate particularly well but he’s a solid line drive hitter.

Cy Young: Zack Greinke – 13-8, 2.19 – What, you were expecting Gil Meche? A great story and at just 25 years old he’s going to be a star for years to come.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Mike Moustakas – 3B – It was a disappointing year for the 20 year old at Hi A Wilmington. An OBP under .300 is not getting it done though he still displayed good power with 16 home runs.

What Went Right – Greinke’s season obviously is the high point and the right side of their infield with Billy Butler and Callaspo looks good. Joakim Soria battled injury but still demonstrated that he is an elite closer on his way to taking the title of “Best Closer No One Knows About” from Joe Nathan (if he hasn’t already).

What Went Wrong – The pitching staff was a disaster. A bullpen that I was a fan of when the season started proved gruesome with Kyle Farnsworth, Juan Cruz and Ron Mahay all disappointing. In the rotation the non-Greinke starters were terrible with Meche and Luke Hochevar being especially disappointing given their importance to the organization.

On offense Alex Gordon was a bust in a surprise to many while Mike Jacobs and Jose Guillen fulfilled most prophecies.

2010 Outlook – The AL Central is a division to get healthy in quickly and a return to form of some of the aforementioned pitchers could put them in the mix in a hurry.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – The depth on this team is truly lacking. While stars are necessary I think the Royals could make significant strides simply by improving the bench while looking for young players like Gordon and Hochevar to join Meche in growing a bit.

A good start could make Meche a valuable trade chip in the 4th year of his ballyhooed five year deal. He could bring back a quality return next June/July.

(Up next – Cleveland Indians)

Two-a-Days: Philadelphia Phillies

93-69, 6 Games Ahead, Won NLDS 3-1 (Colorado), Won NLCS 4-1 (Los Angeles), Lost World Series 4-2 (New York)

Positional MVP – Chase Utley - .282/.397/.508 – Expected to miss the early part of the season with an injury Utley was ready when the bell rang and played 156 games despite his third straight year of leading MLB in HBP. If there was a cause for concern it was his mysterious decline in doubles with just 28 after having between 39 and 48 the last four seasons. Arguably the most well-rounded player in baseball.

Cy Young – J.A. Happ – 12-4, 2.93 – Not expected to be a key cog when the season began the swingman helped Charlie Manuel both out of the bullpen and in the rotation. As a starter he posted a 2.99 ERA while posting a 2.49 ERA out of the bullpen.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Dominic Brown – OF – Brown advanced quickly through the system in 2009, the sort of progress one hopes to see from a 21 year old. His .880 OPS featured both power and plate discipline and he may have an outside shot to crack an Opening Day roster in 2010.

What Went Right – The health of Chase Utley was a critical factor for the club while the decision to move highly touted Lou Marson to acquire Cliff Lee in July proved potent. Jayson Werth erupted with a career season while Raul Ibanez provided the Phillies with a terrific first half though his second half gave the off-season doubters something to crow over.

J.A. Happ became a valued contributor and while Chan Ho Park and Chad Durbin’s overall numbers were somewhat mediocre they were good enough to give Charlie Manuel some help and Pedro Martinez proved to be a shrewd acquisition.

What Went Wrong – A surprising amount at high profile spots for a team that went to the World Series. Leadoff hitter Jimmy Rollins suffered through a dreadful season with a sub-.300 OBP though his 100 runs scored are a tribute to playing a lot and batting in front of good hitters.

Closer Brad Lidge was a disaster of historic proportion as he became just the 15th player since 1901 to lose eight or more games without a win. Sometimes a win/loss record does not reflect how a pitcher pitched but in Lidge’s case 0-8 summed things up nicely. So to did his 7.31 ERA, 1.807 WHIP and amazing 11 home runs allowed in just 58 1/3 innings.

As if those were not enough Ace starter Cole Hamels had an off year with a 4.32 ERA and his difficulties continued into the playoffs.

2010 Outlook – There is no reason for this team not to be in the thick of things in 2010. A full season of Lee, a return to form from Hamels and Lidge should improve the pitching and a Rollins rally should help the offense.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – Don’t get complacent. While this is a team with very few holes assuming the Mets, Braves and Marlins can’t catch them would be a mistake. This is a tough division and the Phillies should aggressively work to deal with any issues (particularly third base and the bullpen) to keep their pursuers at bay.

(Up next – Kansas City Royals)

Two-a-Days: Pittsburgh Pirates

62-99, 6th Place 28 ½ GB

Positional MVP – Andrew McCutcheon - .286/.365/.471 – Good news for the Pirates that their best player was also their youngest player. McCutcheon is a star in the making and his 47 extra base hits (including nine triples) and 22 steals are a good indication of the sort of all arounder he could become.

Cy Young – Vacant - When you have just one starter with an ERA+ over 100 and no reliever with over 50 IP and an ERA+ over 100…just, no.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Pedro Alvarez 3B – His initial signing in 2008 was cloaked in controversy and his physical conditioning was called into question early in his first pro season. He stepped up as the year progressed and after playing well at Hi A Lynchburg he sparkled at AA Altoona with a 1.009 OPS. Overall he ripped 27 homers in 126 games.

What Went Right – Youth was served with McCutchen and Alvarez playing well. They are the centerpiece of the next contending Pirate team so that is crucial. Despite my criticism above there was some hope for the pitching as well as Zach Duke and Ross Ohlendorf gave the Pirates some middle of the rotation type work. 1B/OF Garrett Jones hammered the ball though his track record suggests “career year” rather than “finally given a shot.”

What Went Wrong – Backstop Ryan Doumit had a poor season with a .299 OBP while the booty from the Jason Bay trade a year ago all disappointed as Andy LaRoche (.731 OPS), Brandon Moss (.668) and Craig Hansen (5.68 ERA, career-threatening illness) all failed to meet expectations.

2010 Outlook – More of the same really. This is a pretty bad baseball team and there is no reason to be particularly optimistic in the near term.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – Go for broke. While some will tell you that there is no benefit to a team winning 81, 82 games I think this team could use it. I’m not saying give up on promising youngsters but spending some money to get a team over that .500 hump, getting rid of the streak, the questions and eliminating that mindset that says “it’s OK to lose, we’re building” I think would help. Send the message to guys like McCutcheon, Doumit and Alvarez that it is NOT okay to lose 60% of the time.

(Up next – Philadelphia Phillies)

Two-a-Days: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

97- 65, 10 Games Ahead, Won ALDS 3-0 (Boston), Lost ALCS 4-2 (New York)

Positional MVP – Kendry Morales - .306/.355/.569 – After watching Mark Teixeira leave via free agency Arte Moreno saw his Cuban investment pay off as the highly touted Morales exploded. The switch-hitter became a true Scary Monster™ and offset some of the loss felt from Guerrero’s disappointing year. Playing 152 games Morales also provided stability on a team that only saw two other players exceed 140 games.

Cy Young – Darren Oliver – 5-1, 2.71 – On a team that did not really feature a great pitching season (only two starters had an ERA+ over 100) and in a bullpen that shockingly regressed Oliver was vital. He may not be a star but he was a critical member of Mike Scoscia’s staff and has really found a home in So-Cal.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Nick Adenhart RHP – As you know the talented Adenhart was tragically killed in a car accident in early April.

What Went Right – Morales had his great year while Chone Figgins realized a tremendous improvement in his plate discipline becoming the first Angel since Troy Glaus to earn 100 walks in a season. The middle infield really became a strength with Maicer Izturis, Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick giving Scoscia options. Bobby Abreu proved to be one of the shrewdest off-season acquisitions in many years with his bargain basement price evoking memories of Andre Dawson in 1987.

On the pitching side Joe Saunders had a solid season while starter Jered Weaver and reliever Kevin Jepsen seemed to step up. Jepsen’s growth proved particularly important in light of the disappointing bullpen.

What Went Wrong – The death of Adenhart was obviously a horrible tragedy on a human level but from a purely baseball standpoint it heavily impacted what the Angels planned on doing in 2009. Vladimir Guerrero had both a down season with the bat and was not healthy.

The bullpen was the real problem for this team with Justin Speier, Jose Arredondo and Scot Shields all suffering nightmarish seasons while Brian Fuentes, despite an MLB-high 48 saves, came apart late in the season leading to some real question about what the future of his contract holds.

2010 Outlook – The Angels have been the class of the division for most of the decade. 2010 may not be such a cakewalk though as the Rangers made strides while the Athletics have some good things going. While that is happening the Angels could conceivably lose their top pitcher, Lackey, two best on base players in Figgins and Abreu and have several players (Aybar, Izturis, Guerrero, Hunter, Morales) who would have to be considered good bets for even just a plexiglas principle regression.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – If I’m the Angels I prioritize the free agents as; Lackey, Figgins and Abreu. Someone is going to overpay Abreu but Lackey and Figgins appear to be players who should age well in my opinion. The Angels should also aggressively target multiple relievers with Red Sox’ Hideki Okajima being a player I would covet.

(Up next – Pittsburgh Pirates)

Two-a-Days: Los Angeles Dodgers

95-67, 3 Games Ahead, Won NLDS 3-0 (St. Louis), Lost NLCS 4-1 (Philadelphia)

Positional MVP – Andre Ethier .272/.361/.508 – The sweet swinging right fielder had an age 27 breakthrough with 31 homers and 106 RBI. He also was at his best when the chips were down with six walk off hits including four walk off home runs.

Cy Young – Randy Wolf – 11-7, 3.23 – The underrated lefty has been a steady Eddie for most of his career. Injuries slowed him down in 2006 & 2007 but he has bounced back and had the finest year of his career in 2009 with a 1.101 WHIP.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Andrew Lambo – OF – The 2007 4th rounder had sparkled in his first two seasons progressing to AA at the end of 2008. In his first full season at that level things were a bit disappointing as he hit .256/.311/.407. Lambo slammed 39 doubles and 11 home runs suggesting the power is there for the taking and he should be one to watch.

What Went Right – The off-season acquisition of Orlando Hudson proved to be a winner as O-Dog had a .774 OPS though his defense was a step down from what it has been in the past. Youngsters Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, Jonathan Broxton and (to a lesser extent) Chad Billingsley all had solid years with growth of varying levels.

When Manny Ramirez hit the suspended list the cackling was heard from sea to shining sea, we all chortled “Juan Pierre, ha ha ha ha ha.” Wouldn’t you know, Pierre played well during Ramirez’ vacation finishing with 30 steals and he had a .381 OBP during the suspension.

What Went Wrong – Manny Ramirez missed fifty games due to a violation of the MLB drug policy. Catcher Russell Martin was a big disappointment as he turned into Jason Kendall before our eyes with his power going completely south and first baseman James Loney continued to regress from his 2007 breakout season.

Highly touted infield prospect Ivan DeJesus Jr. suffered a season ending injury during Spring Training.

2010 Outlook – The Dodgers should return a talented team to the field in 2010. The division may be more closely contested though as the Rockies made nice strides while the Giants have the pitching to contend. I expect the Dodgers to drift back a bit in 2010.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – Do not let some late season struggles by Clayton Kershaw detract from an otherwise fantastic season. His year was up and down and he can be Matsuzaka-like in his efficiency but 21 year old kids with an ERA under 3.00 at the big league level are few and far between.


(Up next – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim)

Two-a-Days: Baltimore Orioles

64-98, 5th Place 39 GB

Positional MVP: Brian Roberts - .283/.356/.451 – After in depth trade talks that had him all but on a plane to Wrigley Field in the Spring Roberts delivered his usual strong season. With 56 doubles Roberts became just the fourth player in history to have three seasons with 50 or more doubles joining Tris Speaker (5 years), Stan Musial (3) and Paul “Big Poison” Waner (3).

Cy Young: Brad Bergesen – 7-5, 3.43 – The Orioles turned in another gruesome pitching season. Bergesen is a control pitcher who did a good job keeping the ball in the ballpark. His ERA+ was an impressive 135 before his season ended due to a leg injury.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Matt Wieters – C – There was absolutely no way Wieters was going to live up to the outrageous projections laid out for him. If you ignore some of the ridiculous things that were said in March his season was very good as he hit .288/.340/.412 and threw out 24% of would-be base stealers. He remains a super prospect likely to become a star.

What Went Right – The outfield continued to establish itself as Adam Jones had a strong season while Nolan Reimold burst onto the scene as a potential middle of the order threat. DH Luke Scott continues to be a made-for-Camden Yards slugger.

Pitching prospect Brian Matusz displayed flashes of the future in eight MLB starts. While his 4.63 ERA was just mediocre he showed an ability to miss bats.

What Went Wrong – Pretty much anything that involved the pitching staff. Presumptive staff ace Jeremy Guthrie had a dreadful season while youngsters David Hernandez, Jason Berken and Jim Johnson all struggled in varying degrees. About the only two bright spots; Japanese import Koji Uehara and Bergesen pitched well but had their seasons ended early due to injury.

2010 Outlook – They are still quite a distance from competing though they have made progress. This is not a terrible team despite the terrible record but they are in the wrong division for a quick turnaround, 2008 Rays notwithstanding. They are unlikely to even contend for 3rd place in 2010.

Progress is good here. They have an outfield that is both young and talented enough to be a pennant contending outfield. With Bergesen in the middle of the rotation and Matusz and minor leaguer Jake Arrieta on the horizon they are going in the right direction. I like Izturis at short to help solidify the defense.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – I don’t know if he even remotely comes close to having the skills for it but I wonder if Nolan Reimold could move to third base. Adding outfielder Felix Pie to Jones and Markakis in the outfield with Reimold replacing Mora at third would make the O’s a little better rounded.

(Up next – Los Angeles Dodgers)

Two-a-Days: New York Yankees

103-59, 8 Games Ahead, Won ALDS 3-0 (Minnesota), Won ALCS 4-2 (Los Angeles), Won World Series 4-2 (Philadelphia)

Positional MVP – Derek Jeter -– .334/.406/.465 – Death, taxes and Derek Jeter. When the “Holy Trinity” of shortstops was running around back in the late 90s most serious analysis showed Jeter third and even fourth when Tejada burst onto the scene. What Jeter has done remarkably well is stay healthy and fit enough to remain at shortstop for over 2100 games.

Cy Young – Mariano Rivera – 3-3, 1.76 – On the subject of ageless Rivera was incredible again. He blew just two saves all year for the second best save percentage of his amazing career.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Austin Jackson – OF – Jackson had a good, not great year with a .300/.354/.405 line. While his skills are many he lacks power leaving his ceiling somewhat wanting.

What Went Right – What didn’t? (I guess I’ll answer that in a moment). Kidding aside when I look at the Yankees I see the 1986 Mets. It’s not that this is a great team but they are a very good team that got slightly better performances than expected from virtually everyone.

The Yankees did not have any one player having an outrageously good year but eight of the nine players had an OPS+ better than their career marks with only A-Rod’s 143 below his career mark of 147 and considering he was coming back from a hip injury that has devastated a similarly aged Mike Lowell that’s A-OK. At the same time the Yankees got 500+ plate appearances from eight of nine players with only the catcher Posada missing with just 438 PA.

That all reads as faint praise and it's not meant to be. This is a very good team that just also had good fortune, when that happens 95 win teams become 100 win teams.

What Went Wrong – Chien Ming Wang suffered a dreadful start then missed the rest of the season with injury. Xavier Nady also suffered a season ending injury though in my opinion that was a positive as it ensured regular playing time for Nick Swisher. The Yankees handling of Joba Chamberlain was poor leading to excessive drama and seems to have caused some regression though his talent level remains high.

2010 Outlook – At some point players like Jeter, Rodriguez, Rivera and Posada have to show their age. Still, these are incredible players and they are showing no signs of slowing down.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice – Don’t give up on Wang. While he has had two tough years in 2008 and 2009 he was a strong and successful pitcher for three and a half years before the foot injury in ’08.

I also think that despite the way 2009 played out the rotation remains the place for both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes because Andy Pettitte can only have so many bullets left. After Sabathia and Burnett the rotation is thin without those two in it.

(up next - Baltimore Orioles)

Two-a-Days: Washington Nationals

59-103, 5th Place 34 GB

Positional MVP: Ryan Zimmerman - .294/.366/.523 – The Nats third baseman is their franchise player so far in their brief history. With over 30 homers and a slick glove he’s a star already.

Cy Young: John Lannan – 8-11, 4.14 – The 24 year old southpaw is establishing himself as a Mark Buehrle-lite. He’s not a great pitcher but he is a good pitcher who is unfortunately miscast at the top of the rotation. Allowed to be a Tim Wakefield sort, eat some innings, get some wins, he’s fine.

Baseball America Pre-season #1 Prospect Status – Jordan Zimmermann – RHP – The good news is that Zimmermann pitched pretty well for a rookie hurler. The bad news is that he underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2010 season, not what the Nationals needed.

What Went Right – They successfully signed #1 pick Stephen Strasburg which was imperative. While it wasn’t the attention grabber Strasburg’s signing was they also signed their compensation pick (Drew Storen) to offset their failure to sign Aaron Crow in 2008.

Beyond that they seem to have settled on a solid outfield with Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham and Nyjer Morgan solidifying things and are discussing giving Elijah Dukes a full shot with Dunn moving to first. I also would not be surprised to see Dunn moved this off-season after proving he is more than a product of Great American Ballpark.

What Went Wrong – Off-season acquisition Scott Olsen had a tough time of things really shortening the pitching staff. The Zimmermann injury detailed above is a devastating blow to the organization.

2010 Outlook – It’s coming slowly but there is such a small margin of error here. If Strasburg is anything less than a perennial Cy Young candidate it’s hard to see how this team can envision contending in the next half decade.

Freddy’s Unsolicited Advice - I think 2010 should feature a focus on pitching development. There is little reason for any pitcher over the age of 30 on this club. Strong infield defense should be relied upon to help the pitchers develop.

(up next - New York Yankees)

Sunday Notes

After losing Game Six Phillies’ shortstop Jimmy Rollins said he still believed that the Phillies were the better team while at the same time acknowledging that the Yankees played better in the series and earned the title. This led to more than a few folks being critical of Rollins for his brashness.

Personally I like Rollins’ attitude. This is how I want my players thinking. Rollins merely pointed out that he felt the Phillies were the superior team but also demonstrated the proper respect for New York’s accomplishments.

Rollins of course was wrong, the Yankees were not only better than the Phils but they were the best team in baseball in 2009. It got me to thinking though. In this era of expanded playoffs how often does the best team win the World Series. The Yankees did so in 2009, how about the previous 14 seasons?

2008 – Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies have a case for being considered the best team in baseball but I do not think it was clear as Tampa, Boston and the Dodgers all had similarly good claims.

2007 – Boston Red Sox – The Sox were the best team in baseball in 2007.

2006 – St. Louis Cardinals – The Cards surely were not the best team in 2006, in fact one could argue they were closer to being in the bottom half of teams than they were to being the best. The best team was probably the Tigers with the Yankees right alongside them.

2005 – Chicago White Sox – Ironically, a year before the Cardinals won the title as a lesser team they were my choice for the best team in baseball though the White Sox were very good.

2004 – Boston Red Sox – 2004 was similar to 2008 where a few teams; the Sox, Yankees, and Cardinals all had a claim to being best in the game.

2003 – Florida Marlins – I felt that the Braves were the best of a fairly unimpressive league that season. Interestingly a non-playoff team, the Mariners, actually had the best Pythagorean record in MLB that year.

2002 – Anaheim Angels – As good as the Angels were that year I felt the Oakland Athletics were the best team in the game. Deep pitching and a solid offense led them to 103 wins.

2001 – Arizona Diamondbacks – I’m comfortable saying that the team that won the most games of any team in baseball history, the Seattle Mariners, were the best team in baseball.

2000 – New York Yankees – This was surely the weakest Yankee championship club not only of recent times but of the 27 titles. The San Francisco Giants were the best of the bunch that year.

1999 – New York Yankees – Incredibly in just their second season of existence the Arizona Diamondbacks were the best team in baseball after snatching 100 wins.

1998 – New York Yankees – Unquestionably the Yanks were the best team in baseball in 1998. Three teams won over 100 games that year (Braves and Astros were the other two) as extreme performances often happen in expansion years. Note that both ’61 and ’98 were expansion years and both featured single season home run records.

1997 – Florida Marlins – Once again in a year the Marlins win the title the Atlanta Braves were the true best team in baseball. They can blame Eric Gregg all they want but the strike zone stunk that day for both teams.

1996 – New York Yankees – The Yanks had a fine season winning a poor division but the Cleveland Indians bashed their way to my fictional crown.

1995 – Atlanta Braves – Once again Cleveland was the best team in the game, this time by a more comfortable margin.

What we see is that rarely does the best team in baseball (as chosen by the all-knowing me) win the World Series. Only twice (1998, 2007) do I feel it was clear that the best team won the crown while on two other occasions (2005, 2008) do I feel a case can be made for the champions.
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One of my favorite parts of the Red Sox’ 2004 and 2007 titles were the celebrations. The Sox didn’t react in a bored fashion or try to act too cool for school, they just went crazy. Lots of hugging, jumping around, and in 2007 just a good old fashioned dogpile on the pitchers’ mound.

Last week MLB Network aired some old World Series films and they were fun to watch. One of the things that was interesting was the evolution of the World Series celebrations. Major League Baseball has existed for so long virtually anyone who has played in the World Series since the days of Babe Ruth probably grew up dreaming of winning that championship so everyone who has won one was fulfilling a dream.

But the celebrations have evolved over the years. If you ever get to see highlights of the 50s and 60s World Series it is interesting to watch. The final out is recorded and everyone runs out to the mound and exchange some handshakes or maybe one or two hugs and run into the dugout. Frankly, the final out of regular season games in 2009 are often greeted with more outward enthusiasm by the players (particularly if Jonathan Papelbon is involved).

Then in 1969 things seemed to change a bit, largely due to the fans. When the Mets won the title that year the fans went just bonkers, streaming onto the field as the players sprinted to safety. Suddenly, going crazy was in vogue. In 1976 when the Yankees won the ALCS on a walk off home run by Chris Chambliss in Game Five (of a five game series in those days) the fans stormed the field with vigor.

The celebrations became so crazy that in 1980 the Phillies became (I believe) the first team to ring the field with mounted police to keep the fans off the field. This led to the fans staying in the stands while the players were free to go wild on the field.

And go wild they did. Tug McGraw showed the way in 1980 leaping high into the air after striking out Willie Wilson. Jesse Orosco raised the bar a bit in 1986 when he whipped his glove to the ozone layer in celebration in both the NLCS and World Series. As I understand it he never found the glove he hurled during the NLCS.

Today on field celebrations are common. Players go out of their way to celebrate on the field and frequently incorporate the fans into these parties. I first remember this sort of sharing of the celebration in 1986 when the Red Sox held an on field celebration after winning the division that famously featured Roger Clemens on horseback.

There aren’t many walks of life where you get to celebrate like an absolute lunatic. I’ve had some really successful meetings but never celebrated a well-done presentation with my staff jumping on top of me and weeping with joy for all to see.

Admittedly, celebrating like that with the flatulent 70 year old woman I work with would be a bit uncomfortable but you get the idea.

Even when I have no rooting interest I always make sure I set my DVR so I can watch the final celebration of a championship. There is nothing like seeing grown men celebrate like children to remember how much pure joy sports can give us.
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The New York Yankees had a fantastic season. After some early struggles while they waited for Alex Rodriguez to return to the lineup they hit the ground running and stormed to a division title then blasted through the post-season with little challenge.

As they rode through New York with Manhattanites violating littering laws in liberal fashion, I mean during a ticker tape parade (how funny would it have been for a cop to give someone a ticket for littering?) there was great rush to assign credit to the various components of the Yankee success.

One of the key reasons for their success was the work of General Manager Brian Cashman. Cashman’s decision to hold onto some key young pieces and suffer through a disappointing 2008 season paid dividends in 2009.
But lost in all this was the contribution of Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small to the 2009 Yankees.

On the morning of July 20, 2005 the Yankees were a half game behind the Boston Red Sox in the AL East. The previous ten months had not been the best for the Yankees. In October, 2004 they saw their rivals the Boston Red Sox overcome a three games to none deficient in the ALCS to win the pennant then go onto win the World Series. 2005 then began with a horrifying 21-29 stretch.

While the Yankees had rallied to get back into the race they were still scuffling a bit. Randy Johnson was not living up to expectations, free agent acquisition Carl Pavano was hurt and pitching was at a premium. Manager Joe Torre was forced to tap a minor league journeyman named Aaron Small for the start in Texas that night. Ten days later he would be forced to make the call to a Colorado Rockie castoff, Shawn Chacon for a start.

The two hurlers would go onto combine for 21 starts for the 2005 Yankees. Even the most optimistic Yankee fan would agree that a 10-11 performance, effectively .500, would be a good result.

Instead the Yankees went 17-4 in games started by the right-handers. Had they gone even 14-7 the Yankees would have failed to make the playoffs. If not for the performance of these two pitchers the Yankees would have likely gone to Boston for the final weekend of the season and had to endure the taunts and ridicule of the reigning World Champions en route to the playoffs while making tee times for themselves.

Would Brian Cashman and Joe Torre have survived this? We’ll never know for certain but I think it would have been unlikely. Having been embarrassed the year before in the ALCS and then failing to make the playoffs while relying on players like Chacon and Small and having free agent acquisitions Jason Giambi, Carl Pavano, Kevin Brown and Tony Womack disappointing in one form or another I think Cashman would have been out.

What would have followed? One never knows. Maybe the Yankees would have brought in a like-minded GM who would have stayed the same course Cashman has. But maybe the Yankees would have chosen to be more immediate. Maybe players like Robinson Cano, Chien-Ming Wang and others would have been traded, maybe Alex Rodriguez would not have been retained in 2008, maybe maybe maybe.

What might have happened is the great unknown. What did happen is known and that is that Brian Cashman’s vision has proven to be successful in 2009. Without the aid of Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon in 2005 it is likely in my opinion that Cashman would not have had the opportunity to see his vision through.
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This week we heard more complaining about pitchers pitching on short rest from former players. Both Whitey Ford and Bob Gibson had some pointed comments about players not pitching on three days rest.

By contrast, on XM Radio’s MLB Radio former Red Sox’ shortstop Rico Petrocelli had a different take. During a discussion with host Jim Duquette about that issue Petrocelli remarked that things were not better or worse during his playing days (roughly contemporary to Gibson) “just different.”

I thought this was a wise and accurate answer. As I get older I start seeing this with my friends. I have a few friends who love to complain about “kids today” which is pretty funny since I’ve known most of these friends since we were kids and I can promise you we were just as much a group of little punks as much as any group of kids today.

One reason guys like Ford and Gibson would pitch on three days rest in the post-season is because that is what they did during the regular season. A pitcher pitching Games One and Four of a World Series was doing nothing different than he had during the regular season so there was no reason for him to not pitch on that schedule.

Ultimately I find myself with two questions. The first is if this dismissal of modern players is the prevailing view of former players or just a matter of the squeaky wheel getting the grease. Maybe most former players don’t have any problem with current players but “golly gee whiz these guys are great” doesn’t sell as many papers as “Hall of Famer Says Sabathia is a Pansy.”

The other question is if this is a new phenomenon. I mean, did Kid Nichols watch Robin Roberts put up a string of a 330 inning seasons and say “meh, that wimp, I pitched over 400 innings five times and it never did me no harm!”

One of the great things about baseball is that it has an appreciation for its history. I was struck watching SportsCenter at my local tavern the other day when they had a graphic of highest percentage of championships by sport. For the NFL they showed the Steelers with “6 out of 43,” a complete dismissal of the first forty years or so of the NFL.

By contrast baseball still embraces records set by players who predate the World Series and holds onto its history fiercely. But sometimes I think that hold on history hurts the game as there is a belief that what has come before is unsurpassable. I see no reason to believe that modern players are more or less dedicated or tough than players who played 20, 40, 60 or 80 years ago.
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Disappointment at casa de Freddy this week as the Milwaukee Brewers dealt shortstop J.J. Hardy to the Minnesota Twins for Carlos Gomez. Apparently my dream of seeing Hardy at shortstop in Boston in 2010 has gone up in flames. It may seem that the Brewers acted hastily in dealing Hardy but remember, they have the talented Alcides Escobar (.304/.333/.368 in 134 MLB PA this year) waiting in the wings at short so rather than sit on a surplus, Doug Melvin acted quickly.

The deal itself is an interesting deal. According to Tony Massarotti of the Globe the Sox made inquiries to the Brewers about Hardy’s availability and were told that Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard would be the price but that Michael Bowden would not be enough.

Well, Buchholz is clearly not worth giving up and while Bard is still a bit unproven he certainly looks good and to give him up for Hardy would have been folly in my opinion. That the Brewers valued Gomez, who had a .284 OBP in 2009, over Bowden says a lot about how Bowden is perceived around the game.

As I mentioned the other day Bowden has some issues. As a pitcher with a good minor league track record and who is still very young (just six months older than Josh Reddick) he has some growth in front of him. There is still a real chance he could become a good Major League pitcher.

On the other hand clearly his “stuff” is not top notch. As a pitcher, if he cannot demonstrate that he can get the job done at the big league level he pretty much has no value.

Gomez is a different story. In 348 MLB games he has just a .292 OPB and very little power as well. Like Bowden he is young (he turns 24 in December) so he could grow into a much better player. However, as a position player he is a bit more of a sure thing.

Gomez has tremendous speed and is considered a top flight defensive center fielder. While this does not make him a star it does make him a useful player. Just based on those two skills alone Carlos Gomez could quite easily have a ten year Major League career. Joey Gathright who is not nearly the defensive player Gomez is just finished his sixth year in the Majors.

The Brewers have been criticized for acquiring Gomez for Hardy. If they could truly have done better than Gomez then they should have but I do not think that is a sure thing. There is a real chance that the best they could have done is Gomez or Bowden and if that is the case I think they chose right.

There is a possibility that either Gomez or Bowden will become a very good player. Whether either or both will is unknown. What is certain is that even if neither player improves from where he is today Carlos Gomez will still have value to the Milwaukee Brewers while Michael Bowden, as he currently is today, would not.
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So a little programming information for y’all. With November typically being a fairly slow period for news (despite the recent spate of trades) and more importantly your man Freddy about to head on vacation for ten days I thought this might be a good time to do something a little different.

The “something a little different” is something I am calling “Freddy’s Two a Days.” Starting on Monday each day will feature two posts, one likely to go up around lunch time and the other likely to go up in the evening.

What these posts will be is a brief review of each Major League team’s season. I will provide you with some basic info (record, how far back they finished, any playoff performance) then name a positional MVP and Cy Young Award winner from each club. That will be followed by a brief review of what went right and what went wrong in 2009 for each club, a short 2010 prognosis and lastly a little Unsolicited Advice which I have no doubt each team will read closely and implement.

These will go up every day but Saturdays and if my math is right will conclude the day before Thanksgiving. The schedule will feature one AL and one NL team every day except the last day when the uneven number of teams will require two NL teams be featured.

The schedule will be such that I will start with the worst NL team by record (Washington) followed by the best AL team (New York) one day then the next day will be the worst AL team (Baltimore) followed by the best NL team (Los Angeles).

Because of this there won't be any Sunday Notes the next couple of weeks though I will post if anything of significance happens. Hopefully you will find this interesting.
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Some miscellany;

- Got a brief look at the Red Sox’ high priced Cuban acquisition Jose Iglesias on Saturday night. The 19 year old shortstop was playing in the Arizona Fall League All Star Game and while he struck out I thought he looked good. His bat was quick though it could be quicker.

With the caveat that I am not a scout I thought he had good balance at the plate, he did not look like a hitter who would be overmatched. He’s not a finished product obviously but as raw material goes I thought he looked well.

Sox Acquire Jeremy Hermida

2010 is underway in Boston as WEEI is reporting that the Red Sox have acquired outfielder Jeremy Hermida from the Florida Marlins in exchange for LHP Hunter Jones and minor league LHP Jose Alvarez.

Let’s start with what the Sox give up. Hunter Jones you are familiar with from his work with the club this year. Jones is a fairly generic lefty who had not really shown any likelihood to be a particularly impressive LOOGY nor did he have the stuff to be an Okajima type.

Alvarez is a young, fairly sharp looking southpaw who at age 20 dominated the New York-Penn League with Lowell going 8-3, 1.52 with 63 K versus just 10 BB in 83 innings. According to Sox Prospects he is a guy with average stuff but the ability to miss bats. Jones is the “name” in this trade but it looks to me like Alvarez is the piece that would appeal to the Marlins.

Jeremy Hermida is a nice pickup though. I have to admit to being a big Jeremy Hermida fan. Hermida was a highly rated prospect a couple of years ago with a Baseball America ranking in the top five among all MLB prospects prior to the 2006 season. So far he has not quite panned out the way he was predicted to.

After an impressive 2007 season with a .296/.369/.501 line his 2008 and 2009 seasons have been disappointing as he hit just .253/.335/.400. The loss of power has been perplexing as no one really saw it coming. Hermida is not much of a base stealer though he is good for a handful a season. Defensively Hermida does not rate particularly well according to UZR.

Still, I love this trade. Jones was superfluous piece to the Sox and Alvarez is a long way away and does not rate particularly highly. Hermida though is an interesting player in my opinion. At just 25 years old (26 in January) Hermida is young enough to rally his career.

A look at his splits is somewhat interesting. The first thing that jumps at you is that he has a reverse home/road split. His career OPS is .815 on the road with a home OPS of just .721. If he can maintain that .815 OPS on the road while taking advantage of Fenway he could instantly turn into a very good player for the Red Sox.

It is tempting to say “well of course his home/road split is backwards, he plays for the Marlins.” This is untrue though as even the Marlin hitters do better as a group at home (.777 OPS in 2009) than on the road (.735 OPS).

Hermida is a patient hitter who will both strikeout and walk at a rate above average. He has had is pitches/plate appearance grow steadily since entering the league and saw 4.21 P/PA. In 2009 only Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez saw more P/PA with the Red Sox.

As the player he is Jeremy Hermida will provide the Red Sox with a substantial improvement over what they got from their 4th outfield position in 2009. At the same time if he finds Fenway to his liking he could become a solid regular. He would not replace Jason Bay but he gives the Sox some options on that front. Hermida is good enough that he allows the Sox to explore other options to find a big bat at a different position if circumstances dictate.

Theo Epstein’s first off-season move is a winner.

The Veteran and The Kid

So you run a professional baseball team. As you gear up for the 2010 season you are filling out your pitching staff and ever since an embarrassing turn of fortune in 2006 you have lived by the credo “there is no such thing as too much pitching.”

Because of this you are willing to explore just about anyone who may be able to help your baseball team succeed in 2010. In 2009 you took a chance on a couple of established veterans with questionable injury issues with one of them working out for about half a season and the other being a total bust. As 2010 looms there is a pitcher who has a bit of a history with your organization. This pitcher no longer has the magical stuff of days gone by but his intellect and wizardry on the mound made him an effective pitcher in 2009.

At the same time you have a young pitcher in your system. He has made some brief appearances at the big league level with varying degrees of success but his track record suggests he is a pitcher of modest stuff but pinpoint control and a mound wisdom that belies his years.

Who do you trust?

Let’s look at the numbers first;

League Average – 4.32 ERA, 18.0% K Rate, 8.9% BB Rate
Veteran 2009 (National League) – 3.63 ERA, 19.4% K Rate, 4.2% BB Rate
The Kid 2009 (Minor League) -3.13 ERA, 17.0% K Rate, 9.1% BB Rate

Well, the kid pitched alright in the minors but even at that level his K rate and BB rate were worse than the veteran posted at the big league level. But of course the kid is a kid, just 23 next year he has a future while the veteran will be 39 and his best days are behind him.

If you have not cracked the code by now the veteran is Pedro Martinez while the kid is Michael Bowden. The reality is that the Boston Red Sox will likely need both Michael Bowden and someone else on the back end of the rotation in 2010. Signing Pedro in a Brad Penny/John Smoltz kind of way could be beneficial as based on what he showed with the Phillies he looks like a pitcher who has something left to give (in spite of my gloomy forecasts).

One of the risks is that if it does go poorly releasing Pedro Martinez would be a PR drama played out for all to see and could be quite the distraction. It is not really an either/or situation but I think entering 2010 relying on Bowden to help the staff may be a mistake.

I have to confess to being down on Bowden. His control has not been at that superfine level he will need it to be to succeed with his less-than-great stuff. By the same token Pedro did have that kind of control this year.

It’s not either/or, but if I had to choose one for one year and one year only, I think you have at least as good a chance of getting 100 strong innings out of Pedro Martinez as you do out of Michael Bowden in 2010.

World Series Game Six Recap

The 2009 Championship Season concluded last night with a snoozer of a game (unless you were a Yankee fan of course) as the New York Yankees earned their 27th World Series championship. The question on everyone’s mind at the conclusion of the game was “will Joe Girardi change his uniform number to 28 for the 2010 season?”

OK, probably not. I didn’t watch the postgame but I’d be thrilled to know that someone asked him that question.

The game itself was, as I said above, quite the snoozer. The Howard Ehmke comparison continued for Pedro on this night. After his great Game One start Ehmke started Game Five and did not get out of the fourth inning and neither did Pedro (though Ehmke’s bullpen performed better and the A’s won it with three in the ninth). The Yankees had their way with Pedro and with Andy Pettitte dancing through the raindrops they were able to take the easy win.

- Hideki Matsui was a deserving MVP selection. He had a monster series and may well have capped off his Yankee career in grand style with his six RBI evening. Matsui has certainly been well worth every penny the Bombers spent to bring him over from Japan prior to the 2003 season.

- There was not a lot to analyze from this game. I think you have to question Charlie Manuel’s decision to stick with Pedro in the third inning. After the HBP loaded the bases Pedro had allowed 5 of the previous 9 batters to reach and the Yankees had a chance to really break the game open. I think Manuel needed to act much more decisively than he did though of course my choice in that situation (Happ) got ripped by Matsui later in the game anyway.

Manuel’s decision to go to Durbin in the fifth was another I felt a bit misguided. Going to the bullpen was fine but I think Manuel had to pick a Park or a Madson, one of his key relievers, to keep the game close. It’s easy to say this is a results based criticism but Durbin’s lack of control plays right into the Yankee hands. Park’s ability to throw strikes while notching the K made him the better choice.

- I thought Girardi overmanaged a bit in the 8th by going to Rivera. Rivera had a few games this post-season (and this was one) where his pitch count really mounted and he could have easily had the game get away from him. With the four run lead I think Hughes would have been a safe choice though I like that Girardi went for the kill.

- One does not consider a 7-3 victory a blow out but it was the largest margin of victory in a World Series clinching game in 24 years. In 1985 the Kansas City Royals annihilated the St. Louis Cardinals 11-0 in Game Seven.

- Congratulations to the World Champion New York Yankees.

One Man's Thoughts on a Dogpile

The New York Yankees are going to win their 27th World Series title tonight with a 5-3 victory over the Phillies (nothing wrong with a fearless forecast). One of the interesting sidelights of this event is the people telling me how I should feel about it.

Tony Massarotti said a few weeks back that Sox fans should be rooting for the Yankees. Tony’s “logic” was something along the lines of “the Red Sox aren’t trying hard enough and will be more willing to spend big money if the Yankees win the World Series.”

Yeah, it was about as dumb a column as it sounds. Evidently $120 million doesn’t go that far in Tony’s world.

Today we were treated to Jim Donaldson of the Providence Journal explaining his 27 reasons to root against the Yankees. Donaldson featured such witty and never-before-heard insights as “George Steinbrenner is really mean” and “the Yankees spend a lot of money.” It was in its own way as brilliantly put together a column as Mazz’ was.

Look, y’all feel however you want. Personally I would love to see the Yankees lose but I’ve found I have a different feeling this year. I remember in ’01 and ’03 rooting passionately for the Diamondbacks and Marlins as though I were a long time fan of those franchises. I was dying with every pitch of Game Seven in 2001 and went absolutely bonkers in my living room when Luis Gonzalez’ little flare dropped in behind Derek Jeter.

But now? This year I have been a man without a strong rooting interest. Once the Sox were eliminated I had no particular passion for any team. The only thing that makes sense in my mind is that 2004 and 2007 have left me in a state of bliss. No longer do I say to myself “I wonder how that would feel” when I watch a team pile on each other on the pitcher’s mound. No longer do I long for just one night where the world is perfect.

I’ve been there. I stood in the Baseball Tavern and erupted with hundreds of my new very best friends when Doug Mientkiewicz squeezed a soft toss from Keith Foulke. I fell to my knees in my living room when Jonathan Papelbon hurled his glove literally one mile into the air in Denver. Somehow the Fred Lynn 1976-replica jersey I was wearing that day came off and was thrown across the room, I don’t remember exactly how. What I do remember is that both times I got dizzy the way Bill James once described, as if I had gone from stone-cold sober to drunk as a skunk in an instant.

As I watch the Yankees celebrate tonight I expect my emotions to be not envy or anger or sadness but reflection and remembrance of glorious days gone by. Of days where the world stopped and I shared a cigar, some champagne and hugs with family, friends and strangers who truly were “friends I hadn’t met yet.”

They did it in my lifetime. Twice. So the Yankees win one, hey, just another team winning a World Series, I’ve got my DVDs. Tony Mazz, Jim Donaldson, you guys stay hung up on the Yanks, I’m enjoying some good baseball present and reveling in some good baseball past.

This & That

As we wait for Game Six of the 2009 World Series to be played some thoughts on a few items;

Item: David Ortiz wants to retire as a member of the Red Sox

My Thoughts: Well that’s just great. The question is do the Red Sox want to keep you around? This is one of those things that guys say all the time and frankly, if Ortiz were to agree to a league minimum contract he could probably hang around for a long time with the Red Sox and easily reach retirement age with the club.

The reality is that it is very difficult for a player to retire on his terms. Even Bernie Williams who did have the good fortune to retire as a Yankee was by all accounts eager to return to the club after his disappointing 2005 & 2006 campaigns. The Yankees, as they should have, chose instead to move on to better things.

It is simply unfair to the fans, the management team or the other players who have so much invested in a club to carry someone who is not getting the job done. Rare is the player who is willing to accept he no longer has it and steps away gracefully, more common is the player who won’t accept he’s done until everyone tells him so. Look at the list of the greatest players of all time and most of them had that ugly ending; Ruth, Mays, Bonds, Griffey, Carlton, etc…all went out as a much lesser player than they were.

David Ortiz had an up and down 2009 and more of the same is likely in store for 2010. It is hard to imagine he will be a player the Sox can justify an eight digit contract to after next season and unless he is willing to take a lot less to stay, he likely will be headed out of town.

Item: David Wells says Chase Utley needs to go down

My Thoughts: Hey, not the worst idea I’ve heard. Get his feet moving, don’t let him be comfortable in the box. While he has led the Majors in HBP the last three years he doesn’t seem to dive out over the plate like a Jeter or a Youkilis but just crowds the plate similar to a Don Baylor or Jason Giambi. Because of this I don’t think getting in on him will have a significant impact since he's not lunging into the pitch but going more straight ahead.

What I think is a more realistic strategy, particularly with the lefty on the mound, is to just pitch around him. Force Ryan Howard who has not been on his game lately to beat you. Don’t let the supremely talented and hot Utley do the damage.

Item: Akinori Iwamura traded to Pittsburgh for reliever Jesse Chavez

My Thoughts: With Ben Zobrist at second (and possibly Reid Brignac as a fall back option) Iwamura was expendable. Iwamura was injured much of the year but he has established himself as a solid player with an OBP over .350 in three MLB seasons and his defense at second base is good. He turns 31 in February though so it seems to me that he might prove to be mid-season trade bait.

I wonder if the Sox could make this work. Depending on what happens could an option of Pedroia at shortstop/Iwamura at 2nd work? I have a feeling not as the Dustin Pedroia – Shortstop era seems to have passed.

Chavez is a nice get for the Rays. He throws hard and has good control and will be cheap for the foreseeable future. This could prove to be a very successful deal for the Rays.

Item: Tim Hudson to ink extension with Braves

My Thoughts: This could give the Braves a deep staff in 2010. Hudson returned from injury to go 2-1, 3.61 in seven starts with the Braves. Adding the soon-to-be 34 year old to a staff with Jurrjens, Hanson, Vasquez and Lowe with Kawakami going to the bullpen provides some real depth and allows the Braves to consider dealing Jurrjens or Vasquez to fill holes elsewhere.

World Series Game Five Recap

Up against the wall the Phillies earned a reprieve for at least 48 hours with an 8-6 victory over the Yankees in Game Five. The way this game played out in my opinion validated Charlie Manuel’s decision to start Cliff Lee on full rest. Lee pitched very well for seven innings before running out of steam in the 8th and I think it is fair to wonder if on short rest he would have hit the wall sooner.

- The post-season has been an A.J. Burnett display for both the good and the bad. Burnett has alternated the exceptional start with the poor start and that really has been his problem throughout his career. Burnett’s inability to maintain his control and command from start to start limit him as a pitcher. Of the five batters he allowed to reach without a hit (4 BB, 1 HBP) three of them came around to score.

- For the life of me I cannot understand Charlie Manuel’s decision to lift Shane Victorino for defensive purposes. Ben Francisco is a fine defensive outfielder and going to him made perfect sense but as a replacement for Ibanez, not for Victorino. It certainly looked like Victorino was equally confused.

Conversely I thought he handled his bullpen well. I did not have a problem with letting Lee start the 8th and Manuel had the bullpen ready when Lee got in quick trouble. Beyond that his selection of Madson for the ninth, even though Madson did not pitch well, was the correct call.

- This Chase Utley fella might be a keeper. Two more home runs, he is just sizzling right now. With the Yankees on the cusp the World Series MVP decision has been debated in some places. No Yankee has really seized that title though Damon is making a strong case.

The way the series is shaping up Utley is in a position to be the first World Series MVP from a losing team since Bobby Richardson of the 1960 Yankees. There is also a Babe Ruth Award given by the BBWAA to the “player with the best performance in the World Series” and the last member of a losing team to earn that particular award was Luis Tiant with the 1975 Red Sox.

Honestly, until five minutes ago I thought the Babe Ruth Award and the World Series MVP were the same thing. I was wrong. With Ryan Howard struggling mightily Joe Girardi has to consider giving Chase Utley the Barry Bonds treatment on Wednesday night.

- Speaking of Howard Charlie Manuel may be forced to split he and Utley up against Pettitte. Howard has been helpless and this is not new, he does not hit lefties well at all. He had a .653 OPS against southpaws this year and his career OPS of .754 is less than impressive for a cleanup hitter. I would go Utley-Werth-Howard-Ibanez if I were Manuel and force Pettitte to deal with Utley and Werth in some manner.

- Besides the little matter of winning the game the most important thing that happened was Raul Ibanez having a good game. Getting Ibanez going would be a critical piece of the puzzle for the Phillies.

- Ryan Howard has tied Willie Wilson’s World Series record for strikeouts with twelve. The 1980 World Series is the first one I remember watching start to finish and it was an impressive bit of an advance scouting report being executed by a pitching staff.

That year the Phillies eliminated the Royals’ leadoff man by pounding him with high fastballs that Wilson could not lay off. If you get a chance to watch the final out of that series (a strikeout of Wilson on just that pitch) you will get a little look into the way Wilson’s series played out.

World Series Analysis - The Search for Hope

Facing a 3-1 deficit the Philadelphia Phillies are in a world of hurt as they seek to become the first National League team to win consecutive World Series since the ‘75/’76 Reds. What needs to happen for them to overcome these long odds and dogpile on the mound at Yankee Stadium? Well, quite a bit, but let’s have a look at some reasons for optimism;

1. Cliff Lee is terrific.

Not much explanation needed here. In his first post-season Cliff Lee has been nothing short of magical allowing just 23 base runners in 33 innings with a 0.54 ERA. The Phils take the field tonight down 3-1 with a very strong chance, even nodding towards A.J. Burnett’s efforts this fall, that this will be a 3-2 series when baseball is done tonight.

2. It doesn’t matter how you get there.

I wrote the following after the Sox lost Game Four of the 2007 ALCS;

“If the Red Sox win Game Five they will come home down three games to two. There will be much talk about the Sox coming back from 3-1 but once they’ve won game five (if they do) the fact that the series was once 3-1 is 100% irrelevant. How do I know? I checked. Teams that are down 3-1 then won Game Five have actually been more likely to win the series than teams that are down 3-2 after losing Game Five.”

The point is that if the Phillies win tonight they will only be down 3-2. As the cliché says, they are just looking for three one-game winning streaks. If they win tonight that the series was once 3-1 is utterly irrelevant.

3. The offense is due to wake up.

The Philadelphia Phillies are a good offensive team that led the National League in runs scored in 2009. Right now they have a number of players really struggling with their first (Rollins), second (Victorino), fourth (Howard) and sixth (Ibanez) hitters all featuring an OPS south of .600. Talented hitters eventually will find their way to making left turns rather than right turns at first base.

With that all said, I cannot see it happening. I count three teams that have come back from 3-1 (or worse!) deficits to win a post-season series this decade;

2003 Florida Marlins
2004 Boston Red Sox (were down 3-0 at one point)
2007 Boston Red Sox


The 2004 and 2007 Red Sox are not a particularly good comparison for the Phillies. In each of those years I felt that one advantage the Sox had was the fairly simple one of being the better team. In 2004 I felt the two teams were fairly evenly matched with a slight edge to the Sox while in ’07 I felt the Sox were better by a fair amount.

Another edge those two teams had is the pitching matchups were very good. The Sox were able to match the Indians Ace Sabathia with Beckett and Schilling/Matsuzaka were a good match against Carmona/Westbrook while in ’04 the Sox could roll out great starters with Pedro, Schilling and even the Burnett-like Derek Lowe who could dominate as easily as he was dominated.

The Phillies enjoy none of these advantages. After Lee tonight they have an impressive but not the same Pedro and a Cole Hamels who is very obviously not right. Whether it is injury or what I have no idea but he has not been the same.

Looking back at the 2003 Marlins I see a bit of a comparison. In that series the Marlins sent a dominant post-season horse (Beckett) to the mound for Game Five. After winning that game they went on the road against two superior starters (Prior and Wood) and won two dramatic games.

There were two primary factors in the Marlins comeback. The firsts was Josh Beckett pitching four outstanding innings of relief in Game Seven. Of the final 27 innings of the 2003 NLCS Josh Beckett pitched 13 of them. It is not out of the question to suggest that for the Phillies to have a chance at a parade Cliff Lee will have to duplicate that effort.

The second was Dusty Baker mismanagement of his pitching staff over the final two games. His failure to lift Prior in Game Six was a mistake, his delinquency in removing Wood bordered on malpractice.

If you are looking for a positive from those recent comebacks that last point seems to be your best bet. Girardi has seemed to live on both ends of the pendulum this post-season with some inspired managing (his use of Rivera has been excellent) and some insipid managing. It would not surprise me to see him blunder a game away if given the opportunity.

But the reality is that it is hard to envision that scenario happening. The Yankees have the superior team, advantageous pitching matchups and home field in two of the three games. It would be truly shocking to see the Yankees fail to capture title 27.

World Series Game Four Recap

The New York Yankees moved within 27 outs of their 27th World Championship with a thrilling 7-4 victory over the Phillies on Sunday night. The game was a very exciting one as the Phillies held the Yankees down in the middle innings when it looked like the Yanks might really break the game open. A dramatic home run to tie the game from Pedro Feliz in the 8th simply set up more drama in the ninth.

- I’ll reiterate my opinion that the decision to go with Joe Blanton was a good one. Cliff Lee on short rest would have been a risky proposition and Blanton over Happ makes sense in conjunction with the idea of using Happ to help the beleaguered bullpen.

- Having praised Manuel I must now criticize him for the ninth inning. You’ve got Happ out there and the Yankees have Matsui (the obvious pinch hitting choice), Jeter and Damon due. That is a scenario tailor made for Happ over Lidge.

Lidge was OK but Damon had a terrific at bat for the hit. Lidge, like Red Sox’ youngster Daniel Bard, has tremendous stuff but really lacks a good “out” pitch for lefties and it showed against Damon.

After the hit Damon, a terrific base runner, stole second than smartly went to the unguarded third base. As bad as that play looked for the Phillies once Damon had stolen second having him go to third was fairly unimportant. With two outs the speedy Damon is likely to score on a hit (and obviously would have on the double). Lidge just made an awful pitch to Rodriguez.

- Not that it mattered because of the HBP but once Damon stole second and third I would have walked Teixeira to pitch to Rodriguez. Lidge is an exploitable pitcher but even in this horrible year he was far better against righties.

- Manuel got away with it but I thought he hung with Blanton much too long. Trailing 2-1 in the series and down 4-2 with two on and one out in the fifth I thought he was crazy for letting Blanton face Teixeira and Rodriguez.

- You can question the decision to lift Madson at the start of the ninth but he had thrown 20 pitches in the 8th. Leaving him in sets him up to get over 30 pitches fairly quickly, a high number for a reliever. Madson averaged less than an inning per appearance in 2009 and only threw over 25 pitches six times in 79 outings. Lifting him was the right move.

- The last couple of years I’ve hammered DeMarlo Hale for his positioning as runners round third. Find the highlight of Damon’s single that scored Cabrera for an example of where I think the base coach should be. Robby Thompson was in the proper position (though he erroneously threw up the stop sign).

- I would have gone with Mariano Rivera, not Joba Chamberlain in the 8th but Joba did not do a bad job, one bad pitch got him.

- I was watching Game Four of the 1969 World Series between the Mets and Orioles. For all the talk about modern TV coverage having too much ancillary stuff I saw something that shocked me.

During a pitching change with two on and none out in the tenth inning of this tied game rather than discuss the pitching change or the strategy they cut to an interview from “sideline” reporter Tony Kubek with Chief Justice Earl Warren. I would have been enraged if they did something like that today.

World Series Game Three Recap/Sunday Notes

After a sluggish start the Yankees roared back to hammer Cole Hamels and the Phillies and seize control of the 2009 World Series. With a massive pitching advantage for Game Four the Yankees are in about as good a situation as you can imagine being in.

- I think the decision to go with Joe Blanton is the right one. Blanton is not a bad pitcher and Cliff Lee on regular rest is a dominating starter, on short rest you just don’t know. A loss on Sunday is not a series ender with a fresh Lee on Monday a good bet to send the series back to the Bronx at 3-2 Yankees. Not an ideal scenario but not terrible.

To have Lee pitch Game Four and lose would be devastating because then you are down 3-1 and STILL have to pitch Blanton anyway (unless you are bringing Pedro back on short rest which would be insane). Since you’ve got to use Blanton and Lee for Games Four and Five why not do it in the matter that gives you the likelihood of the best performance from both pitchers?

Charlie Manuel is making the right decision here.

- Someone at Fox should be fired, it is that simple. To have a camera interfere with a ball in play in a World Series is either gross negligence by the camera man or the guy who places the cameras around the ballpark. Imagine if Ken Rosenthal ran on the field and distracted a fielder so he committed an error? This is the same thing.

Having said that I was not convinced it was a home run. The ball Rodriguez hit was on a sharp downward trajectory and it was hard for me to convincingly believe that the ball would have gone out.

- The Yankee homers will be the story but Andy Pettitte’s 5th inning single was probably the biggest hit of the game and a hat tip goes out to Joe Girardi on this one. With one out and the runner on second with the pitcher up the inclination is to just drop down the sacrifice but that is the wrong play.

In that instance the sacrifice has virtually no worth, there is little difference between being at second and being at third with two outs in Citizens Bank Park. Letting the pitcher swing away allows for the possibility, however remote, of a hit or an error or something good for the offense.

- The other key moment in the game came in the 2nd. The Phils were jumping on Pettitte and after Rollins’ walk forced in a run it was 2-0 and things looked good. Now, I tend to be a bit different from a lot of folks when it comes to pitchers struggling with their control which Pettitte was. For example, I would have loved to have seen Rollins rip at the 87 MPH cookie he got on 3-0, it’s a great chance for a big inning.

But when a hitter is swinging in those situations he needs to do so in a prudent manner. After the Rollins’ walk Shane Victorino stepped in. Now there are those who feel a hitter should take all the way until a pitcher has thrown a strike after a walk, particularly one like Rollins’ where Pettitte missed badly. I disagree with that.

What I want to see in that situation is my good Major League hitter to put the crooked number on the board. But to do that you have to know what you are doing. Approach the first pitch like the count is already 2-0 and sit on a particularly pitch in a particular zone and drive it.

Victorino handled the entire at bat like he was down 0-2. The first pitch was a nasty diving cutter that Victorino would only have bounced into a double play on had he hit it and by swinging and missing he was down 0-1 instead of up 0-1. The next pitch was another sharp cutter that bounced but again Victorino swung!

Down 0-2 instead of up 2-0 he then got a pitch that frankly was far too hittable for an 0-2 pitch. Because he was in a defensive mode at this point he was only able to hit a sacrifice fly. While the three runs were nice the inning could have been destructive but because of Victorino’s poor approach the Phillies let the Yankees and Pettitte off the mat.
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One of the stories of 2009’s off-season will be the free agency of Jason Bay. Obviously Bay has been an exciting revelation to many of us who had not seen him play regularly in Boston. Early in the season it seemed he hit the ball hard whenever a clutch situation was at hand and his two run game-tying blast off Mariano Rivera at Fenway was one of the great moments of the season.

When all was said and done Jason Bay’s .921 OPS compared quite well to the .926 mark his Hall of Fame predecessor had upon his departure a year and a half ago. Bay brought with him some improved base running and defense that was, well, undefined.

And it remains undefined today. Even his agent’s recent comments were less than complimentary saying in advocacy of Bay; “Jason Bay is a serviceable outfielder. That’s what we know. We know that Jason bay can play left field. Some will say he’s average, some will say he’s below average. But he’s certainly not a DH or, as someone described him, a hockey goalie out there.”

When a full throated defense of the player you represent can be summarized as “he doesn’t stink out there” that is less than inspiring. But what do we know about Jason Bay’s defense? We have three basic ways to evaluate Bay on the defensive side of the ball; traditional methods, modern more “advanced” methods and from a scouting perspective.

Traditional – Bay had an AL high 15 assists in 2009 while not committing an error. Obviously Bay was taking advantage of Fenway’s dimensions and opportunities to bulk up his assist total. At the same time Bay did this without bungling anything out there and making the plays that he was supposed to make. It’s often said in a dismissive tone but making the plays you are supposed to make does have value.

Modern – Newer metrics are less kind to Bay. Regardless of what your preferred metric is he appears to be a sub-standard fielder ranging from “below average” to “avert your eyes for your own protection.” There is some dispute about the newer methods of evaluating defense. Because of the 37 foot wall at Fenway* a number of balls can be deemed “in play” that in reality are just as unplayable as a 500 foot home run.

* Posterisk time – After the 2004 season the Red Sox tore up the field and re-laid the sod. In the process supposedly the field was lowered by 18 inches which means the Monster should now be listed as 38 ½ feet, right?

Scouting – For what it’s worth I went to 27 Boston Red Sox games this year so I saw a lot of Jason Bay. To my eyes he is not very quick to the ball and fairly hesitant in the outfield. In contrast to Manny he seems fairly comfortable charging the ball but is less than adept going back on the ball.

In Fenway this is a bad combination. With Fenway’s unusual dimensions the risk of a ball going over the left fielder’s head is fairly minimal. Unlike larger parks a ball over the left fielder’s head is almost certainly not going to be a triple so cheating in to steal a few singles is more valuable at Fenway.

With all that in mind I realized that maybe we get a little too hung up on adjustments and whatnot and sometimes just looking at what happened can be helpful. With that in mind I present the following information;

At Fenway:

By Red Sox’ left fielders;
Balls hit to left or left-center for hits – 77
Balls fielded by the left fielder for outs – 171
Average - .310
By Opposing left fielders;
Balls hit to left or left-center for hits – 86
Balls fielded by the left fielder for outs - 143
Average - .376

On the Road:

By Red Sox’ left fielders;
Balls hit to left or left-center for hits – 84
Balls fielded by the left fielder for outs – 176
Average - .323
By Opposing left fielders;
Balls hit to left or left-center for hits – 90
Balls fielded by the left fielder for outs - 189
Average - .322

(all stats through reports I generated using Baseball-Reference's Play Index)

What we see is that in games on the road Red Sox’ left fielders and opposing left fielders have similar performances. At Fenway Park Red Sox’ left fielders were much superior to their opposite numbers. Since Bay played 89% of the innings by Red Sox’ left-fielders let’s assume he is the left fielder in question.

So what does this prove? Well, nothing really. This is more of an information dump than anything else. I think it can be instructive if not assumed to be too meaningful. ********************************************************************************
A tragic story came to a disturbing conclusion this week in Helena, MT. The death of 17 year old Brandon Patch during an American Legion game after the pitcher (Patch) was struck by a ball hit with an aluminum bat resulted in a successful lawsuit by Patch’s estate against Hillerich & Bradsby, the company that makes the bats. The estate was awarded $792,000 with another $58,000 going to Patch’s family for suffering and funeral expenses.

The death of a young man is a terrible tragedy and the grief his family and friends felt can not be overstated. There is a temptation in our litigious society to be critical of the family for bringing this lawsuit (“He died playing baseball! He took a risk!”) but grief is a funny thing. I have never been in this situation with a loved one thank goodness but I would imagine that the desire to lash out and blame someone, anyone, has to be high.

But this does not change the fact of this case. While I won’t claim to be an expert either on this specific case or the law in general it seems awfully unfair to the bat maker to hold them accountable. Assuming the bat operated the way it was supposed to and was not some sort of “super-bat” then it seems to me that this was in fact a reasonable risk.

Baseball is not a contact sport like others but it carries quite a bit of risk. A well struck or briskly thrown ball striking an individual in the wrong place can cause tremendous damage. Your man Freddy has worn glasses for 27 years courtesy of a wayward fastball from a fellow 12 year old. If this verdict is allowed to stand it would appear to me that it is an indictment not against Hillerich & Bradsby but against aluminum bats in total.

If an object, when used in the manner proscribed by the manufacturer, results in death or serious harm that cannot be the fault of the manufacturer, it is the fault of the product itself.

This is not a case like the cigarette companies where there is evidence that hazardous results from using the product were covered up. Based on what I have read it appears that there was no false, misleading or omitting advertising on this bat it simply was…a bat. Tragically, batted balls sometimes carry with them bad intentions.

While we all want to protect our fellow man as much as possible at some point to be truly happy we have to be free to get injured. What happened in this case is awful but to blame Hillerich & Bradsby is to blame all aluminum bats. While I find “ping!” to be a horrible sound to listen to I look at all the people playing baseball each year with aluminum bats and the terribly low number of catastrophic injuries or deaths and can’t reconcile that aluminum bats are inherently dangerous.
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The Toronto Blue Jays announced this week that Clarence “Cito” Gaston would be returning as manager for the one final season in 2010. After that Gaston has signed a contract to remain in the employ of the Blue Jays as a “consultant.”

This is an interesting move with both pluses and minuses. The Blue Jays obviously are not a team likely to be competitive in 2010. The Blue Jays are a team in developmental mode looking to a future multiple years away so what they do in 2010 is only important to the extent it impacts 2013. Since Cito Gaston will obviously not be manager at that time what his leadership will bring to the table is in question.

As the Jays are looking to the future the key will be how Gaston can develop young talent. Cito Gaston has spent many years as a Major League manager so we have some idea of his skillset on that front.

In his first go-round with the Blue Jays Gaston inherited a well-formed team. While the Blue Jays had stumbled in ’87 and ’88 they were clearly the most talented team in what was a weak American League East and he was the right man to guide an experienced team to the division crown.

Over the next few years the Jays had tremendous success capped of course by successive World Series titles. In that stretch though there was very little development of young players who proved key to the Blue Jays success.

In 2008 Gaston returned to the Blue Jays. While a year and a half is not a long time already he has shown more adeptness in a development role with Adam Lind and Ricky Romero seeming to be potential stars. At the same time other young pitchers made some good strides and Travis Snider is still a player they are excited about.

At the same time Gaston enters 2010 as a lame duck manager. His ability to lead is going to be compromised as players know he is on his way out. While Gaston has the consulting role to look forward to it is fair to ask if the players will be willing to respond to him. Part of Gaston’s role as manager of a developing team will be to get the players to commit to the long term plan. I am not sure how a player would feel getting that advice from someone who is going to be one and done.

Cito Gaston is a good baseball man. He surely knows the game and will have a lot to offer. Since he is not going to be the man to take the Blue Jays to the top and combining his track record at developing players with his short time frame to be manager remaining in the job seems like a bad move. If I were running the Blue Jays I would be looking for a manager adept at developing young talent who I could count on being with my organization for a few years.
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The Yankees have returned to the World Series for the first time in six years. As they take the field several old stalwarts are there; Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui all evoke memories of 2003. One man is conspicuous in his absence though; Principal Owner and Chairman of the Board George M. Steinbrenner III.

It is an open secret that Steinbrenner is in ill health. According to a story at CBS Sports paint a picture of an organization carefully monitoring how, when and by whom The Boss is seen.

And who can blame them? While it’s easy for us to see Steinbrenner as the cartoonish figure portrayed by Larry David on “Seinfeld”, the bombastic leader of the Bronx Zoo era or as the Gammons-described clown Phineas T. Bluster. Yet George Steinbrenner is also someone’s husband, father and grandpa. To treat him with ridicule is unfair to those people who presumably care deeply for Steinbrenner and to try to photograph him struggling with the difficulties that all of us will face at the end of our lives is simply cruel.

Steinbrenner is also known to be a tremendous philanthropist. Those close to him have painted a story of a man who would perform incredibly gracious acts without a single thought of publicity or attention.

At the same time George Steinbrenner has done some things in his life for which he should be ashamed. The man is a convicted felon who made illegal campaign donations to a politician. His dealings with various employees has also been less than dignified. His hiring of a small time hood to follow Dave Winfield in an attempt to discredit the high-priced outfielder is as ugly an incident as the game of baseball has seen in the past several decades.

Beyond that his back and forth hirings and firings of Billy Martin, though comical on the outside, reflect a man in his fifth decade acting with the impulsiveness of a child in his fifth year. Stories of behind the scenes outbursts, firings of off-field personnel for minor transgressions and revocation of benefits are legion.

As the Yankees drive for a 27th World Series title and Steinbrenner struggles with the difficulties of the end of his life stories will be written. As these stories are written they should strive for balance and fairness because while it is unfair and cruel to his family and friends to criticize him it is equally unfair to the lives he has damaged to laud him without acknowledging his transgressions.

None among us is entirely good and entirely bad. Most of us have stories that will never be told, lost to the pathos of time. When our stories are written and our tales are told it is an insult to both the lives we’ve touched and the lives we’ve lead to sanitize or demonize to suit the author’s needs. Biographers and obituary writers have a right and in some instances and obligation to tread with respect but to whitewash portions of a person’s life to make a point is not the right thing to do.
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Prior to Game Two of the World Series New York Yankee Captain and shortstop Derek Sanderson Jeter was presented with what I consider the most important honor an active Major League player can earn, the Roberto Clemente Award.

The Roberto Clemente Award “recognizes the player who best exemplifies the game of baseball, sportsmanship, community involvement and the individual's contribution to his team.” Jeter earned his award through his work with his “Turn 2” foundation.

The Turn 2 Foundation is set up “to create and support signature programs and activities that motivate young people to turn away from drugs and alcohol and "TURN 2" healthy lifestyles.”

Folks in Red Sox Nation enjoy having a go at Derek Jeter on a regular basis. Certainly there are plenty of reasons to take the occasional dig at the Yankee Captain and despite what some in the media like to suggest he is far from perfect. However, his community work is surely admirable and like so many in the MLBPA he can take great pride in this.

Congratulations to Derek Jeter on the important work he is doing off the field.
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Some miscellany;

- Ever heard of a gigapan? This is pretty cool. If you click in the picture you get a little “hand” that allows you to move the picture around. Apparently it is not actually one photo but 675 separate photos cobbled together to create a “gigapan” by photographer David Bergman. If you look you will see the right fielder is Swisher but the rest of the field is comprised of Phillies and there does not appear to be a second baseman.

- What are your favorite websites to follow a game on? I don’t care for MLB.com because (this is a stupid reason but it annoys me) GameDay opens in a new window, not a new tab and during the regular season if you want to switch games it opens a completely separate window.

CBS and ESPN are both slow in my opinion so they’re out leaving Yahoo. Yahoo for some reason has a hiccup where it gets stuck on an at bat. For example, Game Three is in the bottom of the 8th right now but it still is displaying Chase Utley’s 7th inning at bat.

- Anyone know how to find the cover for a septic tank without using the “dig up your entire back lawn until you find it” method?

World Series Game Two Recap

I turned on my TV tonight hoping to see a different but still brilliant Pedro Martinez and I was not disappointed. For six innings Pedro was magnificent mystifying and bewildering the top scoring team in baseball and holding them to just two solo home runs while fanning eight in that time.

It is tempting to say Pedro didn’t have great stuff with the fastball hitting 87-88 consistently. The reality is if you ignore the radar gun his stuff was simply electric. The change up in particular was absolutely ridiculous to the point where you sensed that he could have announced he was about to throw it and the Yankees would not have been able to do anything with it anyway while his fastball went where he wanted it to as if it were laser guided.

As Pedro walked off the mound to a chorus of boos he gave a sly little smile that I interpreted as being “boo all you want, I shut you up for six innings and I’ve still got 2004 in my hip pocket.”

One of the more famous World Series games of the pre-integration era was Game One of the 1929 World Series. That year the Philadelphia A’s were a great team. They had gone 104-46 to win the American League pennant by 18 games. On the mound they were led by Lefty Grove, arguably the greatest pitcher of all time, 24 game winner George Earnshaw and Rube Walberg who had gone 18-11, 3.60.

They also had 35 year old Howard Ehmke. Ehmke had pitched well going 7-2, 3.29 in eight starts. Ehmke was considered pretty washed up though and in fact would only three more Major League games after the 1929 season.

But Ehmke had confidence and he went to manager Connie Mack late in the year and said he could give him one great game. So Mack sent Ehmke to follow the NL champion Cubs around for a couple of weeks and Ehmke came back with a strong scouting report and was given the ball for Game One.

That afternoon at Wrigley Field Ehmke twirled a gem. He allowed the Cubs just one ninth inning unearned run and set a World Series record with thirteen strikeouts, a record that would stand for 24 years.

It’s not quite the same but if you appreciate and know baseball history Howard Ehmke’s name had to come to mind as Pedro Martinez took the mound Thursday night. Given twelve days Martinez, a cerebral pitcher despite his considerable physical gifts, surely learned all he could about this incarnation of the Yankees and put those lessons into play.

A.J. Burnett was the deserving winner but to me the story of the night was Pedro making me feel like I was a decade younger celebrating a victory over the Indians in a decisive Game Five, not like a guy pushing 40 watching two teams with which I do not have a rooting interest.

- In my mind the story was Pedro but A.J. Burnett was not just his equal but did him a step better. He threw first pitch strikes in a metronome-like consistency and his curveball was as dazzling as Pedro’s change up.

- The Yankee Stadium crowd was a tremendous disappointment. With their team’s back to the wall they were awfully quiet with their only noise coming when encouraged by the organist or the scoreboard like some sort of 1977 Astros crowd.

For fans around the country pre-disposed to see Yankee fans as front-runners who only support their team when the going is good the Yankee fans did nothing on this night to dispel that idea. It seemed that the noise only came when the organist requested it.

- I knew Johnny Damon had a horrible arm and I knew everyone in baseball knew it but until Stairs’ RBI single in the 2nd I don’t think I realized just how bad it was. There was really no reason why a runner as slow as Ibanez should have even considered scoring on that ball but he was easily safe as Damon’s throw was a weak one.

- Charlie Manuel blundered in sending Pedro out for the 7th. He had been fantastic over the first six but you ask too much from someone and eventually it will end badly.

- Joe Girardi did not want to let Manuel be the only one to make a mistake. I talked in the pregame notes that Molina should not get an at bat with the Yankees tied or behind and Burnett out of the game but with a lead there was no reason to lift Molina. Molina is a superior defensive catcher to Posada and with Gardner at third and no outs there was a good chance to get at least that run home for insurance.

- Tim McCarver criticized Derek Jeter for trying to bunt with two strikes in the seventh inning and was right to do so. McCarver who is criticized for being a Jeter fan was clear and strong in his criticism of Jeter who was indeed 100% wrong bunting in that situation.

McCarver also was strong in his criticism of Charlie Manuel for not sending the runners with the full count, men on first and second, one out, against Rivera with Utley up in the 8th. I understand and generally agree with him here but I can’t criticize Manuel who made a defensible decision.

Utley is so fast that only a perfect double play ball is going to result in a DP. Admittedly that is what happened and even that one was very close. Against Rivera’s cutter a strikeout or soft liner at an infielder is more likely than the hard grounder.

Either decision would have been fine though I should note that McCarver said Manuel should start the runners before the pitch, he first guessed, he did not second guess which is why I remain a fan of his even though I realize I’m the only one left.

- Something really needs to be done about this “viral advertising” garbage. The scumbags at KGB (I railed about them earlier this year, this is the equivalent of naming your company The Gestapo, the KGB was one of the most vicious, bloodthirsty organizations in the last century) had two “fans” behind the plate who stood up with their bright blue jackets at every opportunity exposing their brightly lettered “KGB” shirts.

Look, if KGB wants to advertise that’s fine, spend the money. It is difficult enough for children to tell the difference between advertising and programming these days and this stuff doesn’t help. That the organization is so offensively named does not improve my mood regarding this.

World Series Game Two Notes

A couple of lineup changes tonight for the Yankees and a couple of comments from Freddy;

- Jose Molina is in for Jorge Posada. This is the A.J. Burnett move and it has worked fine so far as Burnett has pitched well in two of his three starts and even in his bad start he rebounded from an appalling first inning to settle in before Girardi stuck with him too long.

I don't care for this move but it's hard to get too worked up about it. The rule remains that in a tie game or game the Yankees are trailing any at bat by Molina after Burnett leaves the game is a mistake, one that Girardi has not made so far. While I think Molina over Posada is the wrong move, if you are going to make it, make it the right way and so far Girardi is.

- Jerry Hairston is replacing the struggling Nick Swisher in right field. This boys and girls is a bad move no ifs, ands or buts.

Girardi has said that Hairston has "had a lot of success off of Pedro" in his career. And he's right, Hairston has a .370/.433/.519 line against Pedro in 31 plate appearances. That's certainly impressive but ignores that the last time they faced each other was July 26, 2004, two days after Varitek shoved his glove in Alex Rodriguez' kisser.

This brings me back to 2003. Remember when Enrique Wilson owned Pedro Martinez to the point of being started twice during the 2003 ALCS? Wilson was a career .500 hitter (10 for 20) against Pedro prior to that series. What happened? Well, he went 0 for 4 out of the leadoff spot in Game Three and in Game Seven flew meekly to left twice before singling when Millar slipped and fell after fielding his routine ground ball.

Pitcher vs. batter stats are usually of pretty minimal importance and they are of less importance in this case. Not only has it been a long time since they faced each other but Pedro is a vastly different pitcher now. Not only has it been five years but the Pedro Martinez of 10/29/2009 has nothing other than DNA in common with the Pedro Martinez of 7/26/2004. What happened 1,921 days ago is completely irrelevant to tonight.

What IS relevant is the ability of Hairston and the player he is replacing, the struggling Nick Swisher. I take you back now to 2004 when all of us (me too!) were screaming for Pokey Reese over Mark Bellhorn who was 4 for 31 in the post-season. In Game Six he hit his memorable three run homer and in Game Seven he walked twice and once again homered and wouldn't you know his ALCS OPS of .823 was almost identical to his .817 OPS of the regular season.

Nick Swisher is a far superior player to Jerry Hairston Jr. Obviously he is struggling right now having just 4 hits in 31 at bats. Well, are the last 31 at bats why we make a move? Dating back to the regular season Hairston is 7 for his last 31 at bats, a robust .226 average. Hardly the stuff of legend there.

Hey, maybe Hairston goes 3 for 4 tonight, anything can happen in one game. But baseball is about playing the percentages and Girardi is playing the wrong ones tonight.

World Series - Game One Recap

Round one of the 2009 World Series went to the defending champion Phillies by a 6-1 score. They got a brilliant pitching performance from Cliff Lee, outstanding hitting performance from Chase Utley and some timely hitting late to make the game comfortable.

The game itself was entertaining. I thought the first batter Lee faced really set the tone as he struck out Jeter on three pitches and most notably had Jeter looking back at the mound with a “what was that?” look on his face suggesting Jeter was surprised at how good Lee’s stuff was. Jeter figured it out getting hits in his next three at bats but no one else did.

- Lee was just phenomenal, you really can’t say enough. The complete game was the first in the World Series since Beckett’s in Game Six of the 2003 World Series and even featured a Jorge Posada unassisted ground out to the pitcher. The last complete game by a lefty in the World Series was by Randy Johnson in Game Two of the 2001 World Series against the Yankees.

The last World Series complete game that did not involve the Yankees was Greg Maddux’ Game One gem in the 1995 World Series against Cleveland.

Everyone is throwing a hissy about how “cool” Lee was last night. Lee certainly looked confident and why not, he pitched magnificently. One of the plays everyone is pointing to is his casual to the point of boredom basket catch to retire Damon in the 6th.

If you watch the play again though you’ll see Lee almost embarrass himself. He caught the ball down on the heel of the glove and another inch or so he would have dropped the ball for an error. This was sort of the defensive equivalent of a guy loafing down the line on a routine ground ball. On a practical basis it did not have any impact but it’s the kind of thing that can bite you at the worst possible time.

- Chase Utley was equally impressive. There is not much to say about Utley that has not already been said. He is simply a brilliant all around player who can beat you in virtually every way. Last night the thunder came to bear but his speed is an equally potent weapon.

- I did not address it prior to the series but both clubs are carrying twelve pitchers and thirteen position players. This is madness in my opinion. The Yankees in particularly are going to use three starting pitchers which means they have a NINE MAN BULLPEN!!! It seems to me that having say Cervelli as a third catcher to allow Girardi to pinch run for Posada then later pinch run for Molina would be more beneficial.

If the Red Sox and Yankees can get through 26 innings of baseball over two days with an eleven man staff, there is no way a twelve man staff is necessary. During the season a typical club has twelve pitchers but with five starters that creates a seven man bullpen. Given the off days in the World Series there really isn’t a need for more than that. Eleven pitchers is more than enough and frankly the Yankees should probably be carrying ten.

If this series has a 20 inning game I will formally apologize to both Manuel and Girardi.

- I have no idea what he will bring to the table tonight but I am really looking forward to watching Pedro Martinez pitch at Yankee Stadium. There is a part of me that expects this to be a night reminiscent of Jimmy Connors electrifying a US Open crowd against Aaron Krickstein or Jack Nicklaus at the ’86 Masters, an old player, with maybe his final chance on the biggest stage summoning the will, the talent and the wisdom to dazzle us one final time.

But there is definitely a chance that this will be Ali vs. Leon Spinks, a once great athlete overmatched by superior talent. Unlike the athletes I mentioned above, Pedro will surely not have the crowd encouraging him.

- She can be a punching bag for a lot of reasons but congratulations to WCBS radio announcer Suzyn Waldman. The Yankees color “man” on their radio broadcast became the first woman to announce a World Series game live.

I lived in southwestern Connecticut for a couple of years and heard a lot of Sterling and Waldman on the radio during that time. I can tell you that while she can be overly emotional at times I found Waldman’s work to be very good. She is knowledgeable about the game she covers, was always prepared and similar to Joe Castiglione while she left you with no doubt which side she rooted for she was also willing to be critical of the Yankees if their performance warranted it.

World Series - A Look Ahead

Well, it’s show time! After 2,430 regular season games, 13 Division Series games and 11 League Championship Series games we have arrived at what will be the final four to seven games of the 2009 Championship Season. Some general thoughts on the series;

- I addressed it on Tuesday afternoon but I think the Phillies are erring in starting Pedro Martinez ahead of Cole Hamels in Game Two of the series.

- It is a curious happenstance that in a series featuring two ballparks that feature inviting right field fences that nine of the fourteen games will likely be started by left-handers (Sabathia Games 1, 4 & 7, Pettitte 3 & 6, Lee 1 & 5, Hamels 3 & 7).

- The Yankees should have a sizable bullpen advantage in this series. The Phillies may be able to mitigate that with some creative management, something Charlie Manuel has demonstrated some acumen for this month.

This will be more difficult than in previous series however. First, the designated closer role is inhabited not by Huston Street or Jonathan Broxton but the Greatest Closer That Ever Did Astride the Earth™. Also, unlike the Cardinals (zero) and the Dodgers (one) the Yankees feature four switch-hitters making it difficult for Manuel to matchup on a strict platoon basis.

What Manuel will want to do is matchup more on scouting report than on handedness. If, as predicted, the Phils put Brett Myers on the roster they will have an additional power arm to utilize out of the bullpen.

- Expect to hear quite a bit about Pedro Martinez’ “struggles” against the Yankees over the years. In reality Pedro has pitched quite well in his career against the Yankees. He has made 32 career regular season starts (effectively a full season) pitching 216 2/3 innings (6.8 IP/start) with 261 strikeouts and a 3.20 ERA. The only reason for any discussion of “struggles” is his 11-11 record.

- I’m not sure what the Phillies have in mind but if I’m Charlie Manuel I employ Ben Francisco as my LF with Ibanez as DH against the lefty starters in New York and a Matt Stairs DH/Raul Ibanez LF combination against Burnett.

- Look for Shane Victorino to have a real impact on the series. Victorino may not be a superstar but he is a solid ballplayer who gets lost among the better known stars of the Phillies.

- I’m not 100% certain I got everyone but I believe that nine men have earned a World Series ring with both the Red Sox and the Yankees. Three men can join that list this year with Johnny Damon, Eric Hinske and Kevin Cash all having spent time with the Bronx Bombers this year. The others;

George “Babe” Ruth (1915, 1916, 1918 Red Sox, 1923, 1927, 1928, 1932 Yankees)
Carl Mays (1918 Red Sox, 1923 Yankees)
Joe Bush (1918 Red Sox, 1923 Yankees)
Sam Jones (1916, 1918 Red Sox, 1923 Yankees)
Wally Schang (1918 Red Sox, 1923 Yankees)
Herb Pennock (1915, 1916 Red Sox, 1923, 1927, 1928, 1932 Yankees) (I assume he was in the War in 1918)
Everett Scott (1915, 1916, 1918 Red Sox, 1923 Yankees)
Ramiro Mendoza (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000 Yankees, 2004 Red Sox)
Mike Lowell (1998 Yankees, 2007 Red Sox)

- Let’s compare the two teams head to head;

1B – Ryan Howard vs. Mark Teixeira – EDGE: Yankees
2B – Chase Utley vs. Robinson Cano – EDGE: Phillies
3B – Pedro Feliz vs. Alex Rodriguez – EDGE: Big Yankees
SS – Jimmy Rollins vs. Derek Jeter – EDGE: Yankees
LF – Raul Ibanez vs. Johnny Damon – EDGE: Yankees*
CF – Shane Victorino vs. Melky Cabrera – EDGE: Phillies
RF – Jayson Werth vs. Nick Swisher – EDGE: Phillies
C – Carlos Ruiz vs. Jorge Posada – EDGE: Yankees
DH – Matt Stairs/Ben Francisco vs. Hideki Matsui – EDGE: Phillies*
* - The Phillies have the edge at DH regardless of who the DH is, Stairs or Ibanez while the Yankees have the edge in LF whether Ibanez or Francisco is out there.
SP – Lee/Martinez/Hamels/Blanton vs. Sabathia/Burnett/Pettitte – EDGE: Yankees
RP – Lidge et al vs. Rivera et al – EDGE: Yankees

Prediction – Yankees in six

Just Some Stuff

A little of this and that during that quiet period when we wait for two other teams to play in the World Series.

Item: Mark McGwire to be hitting coach for St. Louis Cardinals

My Thoughts: This is a curious move. On the one hand McGwire strikes me as someone who might be a pretty good hitting coach. As a hitter he was quite disciplined and seemed to make adjustments as he progressed in his career. Additionally he comes across as a generally intelligent guy who is quite good at communicating his thoughts.

The flip side of course is the whole PED issue. This seems to be a pretty transparent approach by his friend Tony LaRussa to help McGwire rehab his image. The Cardinals are opening themselves up to a whole host of distractions.

If I’m the Cardinals I deal with that with a simple announcement in Spring Training;

“Mark McGwire is the hitting coach of the St. Louis Cardinals and any questions regarding his playing career are not germane to his current work. While Mark is an accommodating guy and will try to be helpful if you wish to talk about the past his focus is the 2010 Cardinals and excessive questions that make it difficult for him to do his job will result in the questioner having his press pass revoked for that day and possibly longer.”

If people don't like it, that is their problem. McGwire has a job to do, he has not been banned by MLB from doing that job and he should be allowed to do it. While I would personally encourage McGwire to address the issue directly once in Spring Training I do not think he owes it to me or anyone else.

Unlike the grandstanding Congresspeople that day in Washington what he said made sense. The right approach is not to talk about the past but to look to the future.

Item: Aroldis Chapman hanging in the Bronx

My Thoughts: If you are unaware who Chapman is he is the Next Big Thing™ from Cuba. A left-hander who throws in the upper-90s there is talk that he will command a salary in excess of $50 million. Without much difficulty you can guess which teams are in the running for his services and which team is the front-runner.

From what I have read Chapman is no sure thing. While he is only 21 and throws hard there is talk that his secondary pitches are woefully underdeveloped. I’m not arguing that the Sox should steer clear of this exciting but somewhat unknown commodity but they should tread carefully.

Item: Self-serving piece in the Globe today about the Sox overcoming the media in their quest for the 2004 title

My Thoughts: If you didn’t see the Globe today there was a piece by Bob Hohler today that talked about “When Sox won the Series 5 years ago, a big part was overcoming media pressure.” Hohler goes out of his way to laud the efforts of Johnny Miller who would ask “the same question every spring training to every player on the Sox roster: “Do you believe in the curse of the Bambino?’’

Apparently this sort of questioning was a big impediment to the Sox’ ability to win the World Series for 86 years (though there is no explanation of how the Sox failed to win in the 60 or so years before Miller arrived).

What is most disturbing about this is that by trotting out this claptrap Hohler misses a potentially wonderful tale. Johnny Miller has cerebral palsy, a disease which causes difficulties in motor function and speech. Despite these limitations Miller has carved out a fine career for himself in a world inhabited by people not known for their accommodating or compassionate nature. Miller is to be applauded for this but not for asking a fairly silly question.

Hohler addresses Miller’s health issues in the piece but glosses over it a bit to put the focus on Miller and Hohler’s Globe colleague Dan Shaughnessy for their supposed role in the Sox inability to win the World Series.

Hohler had a great story at his fingertips. A story of triumph over adversity and how the word “handicapped” doesn’t apply to people even though that is the word most of us would instinctively use to describe someone like Miller. Hohler (or his editor) chose instead to write a story that really should just have faded into the atmosphere five years ago.

Item: Pedro Martinez to start Game Two of World Series

My Thoughts: This is an interesting move by Charlie Manuel. Sending Pedro to the mound in Game Two, and with the corresponding Game Six start, ensures an even more rabid Yankee Stadium crowd than usual. “Who’s your daddy?” chants will ring out as long as Pedro is on the hill and the crowd will be as electric as can be. I expect it will be more electric for Game Two than for Game One.

On the other hand, this sets up Hamels for Game Seven. Hamels as the superior pitcher to Pedro at this stage of their careers is the right guy for that game. Still, I don’t like this move. Hamels is an improvement at the plate for Game Three but that’s a pretty minimal advantage. Of course, in a short series one at bat can be huge, remember Joe Blanton’s home run last year or Matsuzaka’s single in 2007.

To me having the lefty Hamels on the mound twice in New York would be the right move. Turning around Teixeira, Swisher and Posada is a benefit with the short right field porch. I would have Hamels pitching Game Two if I were running the Phillies.

Arizona Fall League Update

With the eyes of the baseball world having focused on Los Angeles, Philadelphia and the Bronx over the last week baseball is being played elsewhere. The annual prospect pilgrimage has taken place and the Arizona Fall League is in full swing. With all six teams having suited up for eleven games I thought it might be interesting to take a look at the Red Sox prospects that are hangin’ in the desert.

Ryan Kalish – OF – Kalish has played eight games so far and is hitting .296 with a 10:2 K/BB ratio. Kalish is a bright prospect so just getting some PT is a good thing for him.

Luis Exposito – C – One of the more important Red Sox prospects as the club looks to put together a solid catching future. While he’s only played four games he does have a home run.

Jose Iglesias – SS – The high priced Cuban acquisition from the summer is playing his first competitive baseball in the States. So far so good as he has a .916 OPS with three walks in 23 PA and a double and a homer in six games. It is axiomatic that plate discipline is an issue for Caribbean players so that walk rate is a good sign.

Casey Kelly – SS – Kelly is participating in Arizona as a shortstop, not a pitcher and so far hasn’t really hit. Anything that pushes him to the pitching side of things seems to be a good thing as that is where his future seems to lie based on his performance this past season.

Richie Lentz – RHP – Lentz had a rough season with control issues but off-setting that with a high strikeout rate. In six innings he has walked just one so far in the AFL. Daniel Bard overcame some of his control issues during a stint in a Fall League (Hawaii in his case) so maybe Lentz has something coming together.

Dustin Richardson – LHP – Richardson has been nasty so far with nine strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings. He has faced nine lefty hitters and five of them have returned to the dugout without making contact. Interestingly, the other four have all reached base on three hits and a walk.

Chris Province – RHP – Province has had the opposite experience from Lentz with a strong season being offset by some disappointment in Mesa. Province has allowed runs in three of four appearances so far.

Obviously one should not read too much into the results so far. These are obviously based on small sample sizes but it can be interesting to see some of the progress players make. For many of the players, particularly guys like Iglesias, Kalish and Exposito they are going up against competition in excess of anything they have faced before so it can be a tremendous learning experience.

ALCS Recap

As October 17th, 2004 turned into October 18th, 2004 Joe Buck commented that the Yankees were closing in on their 40th World Series berth. No one could have predicted it would take five years for Buck's comments to turn into truth but last night they finally did as the Yankees defeated the Angels 5-2 to indeed win the 40th American League Pennant.

This series featured a lot of bad managing and last night was no exception. In the first three innings Joe Saunders allowed six base runners and was pretty obviously living on the edge. Personally I would have lifted him after the second but Scoscia was determined to stick with him.

In the fourth the Yankees went walk, single, sac bunt, walk. At that point the Yankees had sent 19 men to the plate and nine of them had reached with one of the outs being the gift sacrifice. Letting Saunders stay in the game was a mistake, letting him stay in the game to allow a walk, two singles and another walk before lifting him was just a terrible blunder.

Joe Saunders faced 22 batters, 12 of them reached base. The Angels were very fortunate that Teixeira or Rodriguez didn't drive a ball out of the park to blow things open.

But the fact is by the time Saunders had been lifted the damage was done. The Angel bullpen pitched well until they stopped remembering how to handle bunts in the 8th but the offense was quiet and the Yankees celebrated justifiably.

- Joe Girardi is an interesting manager. I think he does an extremely poor job of handling things when things are going poorly. His performance in Florida reflected that, I think his performance last year showed that and some things this year, notably his jerking around of Joba Chamberlain, indicated that.

On the other hand I think he is a very good "closer" as managers go. There were a lot of decisions he could have made last night but having Mariano Rivera party like it was 1999 and pitch the final two innings was a great one. None of this messing around, get Rivera in there and let him finish it.

Based on what I've seen so far I would describe Girardi as a manager who makes a bad situation worse but a good situation better.

- C.C. Sabathia was named ALCS MVP and he was a good choice. Sabathia went 2-0 with a 1.12 ERA and a ridiculous 0.75 WHIP. A strong case could also have been made for Alex Rodriguez who had a 1.519 OPS and of course had that memorable Game Two home run. This was a case where either player would have been a good selection.

Sunday Notes

Thing have gotten interesting in the ALCS with the rain out on Saturday night. It will be interesting to see how the teams approach it. I think it is very important for the Yankees to win Game Six because if they go to a Game Seven they would need to use C.C. Sabathia meaning that the Phillies can start the series with Hamels/Lee in some order and have a significant pitching advantage in each game.

The Angels also catch a bit of a break because they can now use John Lackey either as a starter on short rest in Game Seven or possibly as a reliever to help their beleaguered bullpen in either (or both) Game Six or Seven. Lackey has pitched twice as a starter on short rest in his career pitching poorly in a 2004 start then pitching five shutout innings in a 2005 start.

Even though it is his regular turn I would not push Sabathia up for the Game Six start. Andy Pettitte is a pretty good pitcher in his own right and while you do not want to think ahead the Yankees best chance to win the World Series involves C.C. starting Game One, something he cannot do if he starts on Sunday night. If Pettitte is beaten the Yankees still have Sabathia for Game Seven. In his career there is no difference in Sabathia's performance on four or five days rest.
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This past week Jimmy Rollins became the tenth player in post-season baseball history to stride to the plate with his team trailing and at the end of his at bat leap into the air with his team victorious. It is the backyard moment so many of us had as kids; “bases loaded, two outs, down by three, here’s the pitch to Freddy and he socks it deep to left way back, way back, IT’S GONE!!! The Red Sox win because of Freddy!!!” (c’mon, I’m not alone).

The first occurrence of this moment came in 1947. This was one of the most famous games of the 20th century as Yankee hurler Floyd “Bill” Bevens (oh those wacky nicknames!!!) flirted with disaster and destiny. For 8 2/3 innings he hurled a no-hitter but due to eight walks he entered the ninth on somewhat shaky ground with just a 1-0 lead.

After two outs were wrapped around a walk and a stolen base Pete Reiser stepped up. Reiser was battling post-concussion effects but Yankee skipper Bucky Harris ordered a free pass, the tenth of the game bringing Cookie Lavagetto to the plate. Lavagetto stroked one off the right-center field fence for the first hit of the game for the Dodgers and a 2-1 victory as Bevens walked off having danced with desinty but going home with disaster.

But of all these great moments there were three that are even more remarkable. As great as a walk off hit is a game ending play where a runner is thrown out on the bases is maybe the most dramatic possible moment of a baseball game. I did a search at Baseball-Reference for “game ending post-season hits with a team trailing” and while I found the ten “backyard moments” I also found three moments that featured great defense. Incredibly, two of them were more based in stupidity than anything else.

The most recent came in the 2007 NLCS. In Game Three of that series Arizona catcher Miguel Montero batted with the bases empty, two outs and the Diamondbacks trailing 5-1. Montero singled but inexplicably was thrown out trying to stretch his hit into a double. As bad decisions go, this is a pretty bad one.

Maybe the most memorable game-ending out came in 2003. In Game Four of the NLDS Jeffrey Hammonds singled to left with the Giants trailing the Marlins 7-6 in the ninth. The runner at second, J.T. Snow, raced home in an attempt to score the tying run. “Mr. Marlin” Jeff Conine came up with a strong throw to catcher Ivan Rodriguez. Snow slammed into Rodriguez at full tilt sending Rodriguez head over heels but Ivan stood up and famously held the ball aloft as the out signal was given.

But neither of those intrigued me as much as the moment that happened six years to the day after Lavagetto’s moment. With the Yankees down 7-2 entering the ninth the Bronx Bombers rallied. Gene Woodling and Billy Martin singled followed by a walk to Gil McDougald putting the tie run in the on deck circle. After Phil Rizzuto whiffed and pinch hitter Johnny Mize flied out the Yanks still trailed by five and the tying run was stuck in the on deck circle.

But all was not lost as leadoff hitter (yes, really) Mickey Mantle stepped up. Before I talk about what Mantle did I want to talk about one of the base runners. The Billy Martin I reference is likely familiar to many of you as one of the great managers of the 70s and 80s. Maybe not as well known is that he was considered a player of great intelligence in his salad days and was known for his clutch play.

This reputation was not unearned as Martin, a .669 OPS man during the regular season, posted a .937 career OPS across five World Series for the Yankees. He was viewed much the way players like Derek Jeter, Dustin Pedroia and David Eckstein are viewed today. Just as you wouldn’t expect these players to commit a mental error at a big moment neither would you have expected it of Martin.

Billy Martin was a baseballer through and through. He was a guy you could count on when the chips were down.

And so was Mickey Mantle. The future Hall of Famer delivered a single to left to score Woodling and bring the tie run to the plate in the form of 17 home run man Joe Collins except…except…here comes Billy Martin trying to score his meaningless run from second base…

And here goes Don Thompson’s throw to catcher Roy Campanella…

And here goes home plate umpire Artie Gore’s arm in the air…

“Out!!!”

And the game was over.

Instead of having the tie run improbably coming to the plate the Yankees instead were tasting defeat in Game Four of the World Series. Instead of having a chance to go ahead three games to one the Yanks were tied two games apiece with the Dodgers.

The Yankees rallied though and won Game Five 11-7 and in Game Six led 3-1 going to the ninth. The Dodgers tied the game on a two run home run by Carl Furillo setting the stage for the bottom of the ninth. There the Yankees won on a single by the MVP of the 1953 World Series…Billy Martin.
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FYI, the other eight moments where a team has gotten a walk-off hit that overcame a lead in the post-season;

10/7/72 – Oak 3 – Det 2 – Gonzalo Marquez single (off Chuck Seelbach)
10/26/85 – Kansas City 2 – St. Louis 1 – Dane Iorg single (Todd Worrell)
10/11/86 – New York Mets 6 – Houston 5 – Lenny Dykstra home run (Dave Smith)
10/15/88 – Los Angeles Dodgers 5 - Oakland 4 – Kirk Gibson home run (Dennis Eckersley)
10/14/92 – Atlanta 3 – Pittsburgh 2 – Francisco Cabrera single (Stan Belinda)
10/23/93 – Toronto 8 – Philadelphia 6 – Joe Carter home run (Mitch Williams)
10/8/95 – Seattle 6 – New York Yankees 5 – Edgar Martinez double (Jack McDowell)
10/3/03 – Florida 4 – San Francisco 3 – Ivan Rodriguez single (Tim Worrell – congrats to the Worrell family!)
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The Padres are evidently going to hire Red Sox’ Assistant GM Jed Hoyer as their new GM. This is a good news/bad news kind of situation. On the one hand anytime a guy like Hoyer, by all accounts a smart guy and a hard worker, is given an opportunity to show his stuff at the highest level it is something to be happy about. Hoyer has “graduated” so to speak and will now move on to bigger and better things.

On the other hand the Red Sox are losing a valued employee. Hoyer and Ben Cherington were co-Interim GMs during the time that Theo Epstein was away from the Red Sox during the 2005/2006 off-season. In that time the Sox made some moves with varying degrees of success including the acquisitions of Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, Coco Crisp, Mark Loretta, Rudy Seanez and Julian Tavarez.

What type of GM will Jed Hoyer be? Anyone who answers that is probably either lying or delusional. When GMs get hired there are generally two types of people getting the job. The first type is the retread, the guy with a track record. With this type you have a pretty decent idea what you are in for as there is a history there and you can expect more of the same.

The second type is the new guy (or girl if Kim Ng ever gets hired). This person, like Hoyer, is known if general terms to those of us in the public but really we have no idea. People generally try to hire like-minded people as their assistants but smart people, like Theo Epstein, also like to hire people smart enough and bold enough to disagree with them, to challenge their opinions and initiate discussion.

If you are a Padre fan you may or may not want to look to the Arizona Diamondbacks where Josh Byrnes has had mixed levels of success. Since his hire the D-Backs have risen to the height of a division title and an LCS berth and have fallen to the disappointment of a last place finish this year.

The Padres were my first little league team so I’ve always had a soft spot for them. Hopefully Jed Hoyer will prove to be a successful hire.
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Each post-season comes with its own rhythms and traits. Some are filled with drama as each series wends its way to a memorable conclusion. Others plod along as dominating teams dispatch lesser clubs while others feature two teams on an apparent collision course that exclude all other teams from their universe.

But the 2009 post-season…I just don’t quite get it. It started innocently enough with the first day of games mostly going according to form with just the Dodgers knocking around Chris Carpenter. From there things got a bit funky though.

Day two saw the Dodgers edge the Cardinals courtesy of some poor defense from Matt Holliday, the Rockies held on against a game Phillies side while the Angels defeated the Sox in a briskly played pitchers’ duel. Day three witnessed a spectacular Yankee comeback against Minnesota while the Red Sox again were topped in a pitchers’ duel.

On and on the post-season went. One run games and dramatic late inning comebacks were all the rage. Every division series featured a 9th inning comeback and second guessers had enough moments to pick apart to comfortably fritter away the cold winter months.

As the League Championship Series opened more of the same was expected. Baseball fans were not disappointed. Once again 9th inning (and later) comebacks kept happening with themes of redemption and agony interceding on a nightly basis.

With 23 games in the books at this writing 13 of them have been determined by one or two runs with eight of the games being won in the final at bat.

But despite all this I have felt that the post-season so far has lacked some drama. No series has gone the distance yet and in my opinion the victor of the six series has been fairly easily forecasted with just the Dodgers overcoming the Cardinals’ 1-2 punch of Carpenter and Wainwright to mix things up a little bit.

This post-season has in its own way been reminiscent of 2003. That year was different though as the drama built over a series of games. Two of the Division Series went five games (Cubs/Braves, A’s/Red Sox) while a third that went four games ended with the tie run being thrown out at home plate in spectacularly memorable fashion.

The two LCSes that followed were more of the same. Not only did both feature exciting games (the NL version particularly, the Sox/Yankee series was actually pretty disinteresting until Game Seven) but the stories built to a crescendo. The World Series ended not with the expected coronation but with a coup d’etat in the parlor of a baseball palace.

Where 2009 has been lacking is that long form storyline. While the games themselves have been exciting we have not had that memorable series with shocking twists and turns. I don’t usually go for the pop culture thing but I’ll refer here to two of my favorite TV shows.

One is NCIS. NCIS is a fairly standard cop drama and I never miss an episode. As much as I love NCIS it is a bit predictable as the protagonist Leroy Jethro Gibbs always gets his man.

The other show is a BBC show called MI: 5 (“Spooks” in its original form in England). MI: 5 is another cop-type show (MI: 5 is sort of the British version of the FBI) and one of the things I love about it is that you never feel safe watching it. In the 2nd episode an apparent regular character was killed. Having now watched four seasons virtually the entire cast has been turned over as lead characters have been imprisoned, embarrassed and executed.

The current post-season has been more NCIS than MI: 5. It has been impossible to turn away from the games but deep down it has felt that the end result has always been known, right from the start. Beyond not liking the Yankees, seeing the Angels force a Game Seven would certainly add to the drama of this post-season.
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In a chat at ESPN this week the curmudgeonly Keith Law referred to a trade rumored to have been offered back in 2002. This trade involved the New York Mets (and their suddenly in the news for not so savory reasons GM Steve Phillips) and the Toronto Blue Jays for whom Law worked at the time.

The trade would have featured Blue Jay centerfielder Jose Cruz Jr. going to the Mets in exchange for 2001 supplemental 1st round pick David Wright. Obviously this would have turned out disastrously for the Metropolitans (gotta work in the long form of the name when I can) as Wright has become one of the star players in the game while Cruz’ career went the wrong direction.

But evaluating this rumored deal based on what we know today would be terribly unfair to all parties involved. Sometimes it is good to get into the ol’ way back machine and remember where you were when something happened. This deal is a great example of that.

From the Mets standpoint dealing Wright is surely a gamble. He had just been selected the previous summer as the 38th pick in the draft so obviously the Mets were high on him to begin with. Furthering their confidence would have been his debut when as an 18 year old he posted a .300/.391/.458 line over 36 games at Rookie level Kingsport.

At the time the Mets were just over a year removed from a World Series berth but were a struggling franchise. They had slipped to 3rd place in 2001 and 2002 would prove to be a sub-.500 season and while they had a strong infield anchored by trade acquisitions Mo Vaughn and Roberto Alomar and stalwart Edgardo Alfonzo at third. But in the outfield the combination of Timo Perez, Jeromy Burnitz and Roger Cedeno was every bit as grim as it sounds.

On the other side of the deal the Blue Jays had to feel they had a little something going. With the Yankees a team in transition and the Red Sox coming off an 82-80 season the division was opening up a bit. Cruz had just posted successive 30 homer seasons in 2000 and 2001 and at age 28 looked to be a player on the rise.

Past him the Blue Jays featured 1st baseman Carlos Delgado, reigning AL Rookie of the Year Eric Hinske at 3rd and a talented outfield with young expected star Vernon Wells and thrilling leadoff man Shannon Stewart who had become a steady fixture with his consistently strong OBPs and great speed. Add in exciting 25 year old righty Roy Halladay and oft-injured but gifted 27 year old Chris Carpenter and the Blue Jays had to think the future was bright.

And in fact the immediate future went well. In 2003 the Jays had a strong 86-76 season and were viewed as a real up and comer. That 2003 season happened without Jose Cruz Jr. though as Cruz, after a disappointing 2002 left via free agency for San Francisco and until the end of his career in 2008 he had stops in Tampa, Arizona, Boston (four games in 2005), the Dodgers, San Diego and finally his dad’s old haunting grounds in Houston.

The point of all this is not to say that Phillips or Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi were right or wrong in not making the trade. I enjoy considering what Frost called the road not taken. In this case it is easy to criticize two GMs who are pretty regular punching bags for a lot of folks; Phillips for offering such a deal and Ricciardi for turning it down, but in reality the reasons for the trade being offered and the reasons for its rejection look sound.
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On the subject of Steve Phillips he has been in the news in a fairly big way this week due to an apparent extra-marital affair. One of the more interesting aspects of this story has been the impact of the story on the website Deadspin.com.

If you are not familiar with Deadspin it is a bit of a controversial website. Its approach to covering sports features a focus on the salacious and the R-rated. If someone gets on TV with a vulgar sign you can bet a screen grab of the moment will appear at Deadspin. Deadspin takes particular delight in tweaking the big boys of sports coverage with emphasis on exposing some of ESPN’s foibles when they have the opportunity.

I will say I generally enjoy Deadspin despite what seems like a negative description above. Their little snippets of commentary are usually pretty funny and hey, I’m a male, even at 39 a good poop joke still gets me chuckling.

But this time Deadspin went a little too far. Deadspin has proven over the years that they have cultivated more than a few sources inside ESPN. In this instance it appears that Deadspin had the story about Phillips and his mistress as early as September but when Deadspin’s A.J. Daulerio attempted to get some confirmation he was held at bay by ESPN.

With the story now breaking Daulerio’s anger has been unleashed. He responded by writing at Deadspin;

“since the tenuous connection between rumor and fact for accuracy's sake has been a little eroded here, well, it's probably about time to just unload the inbox of all the sordid rumors we've received over the years about various ESPN employees. Chances are, at this point, there's some truth to them. We'll just throw 'em out there and see how many "no comments" or, you know, actual comments or "you would be completely wrongs" there are about these situations. Consider this one giant all-day version of "Deleted Scenes" or something…

So, Bristolites, strap in — it's gonna be a long day.”

The Fanhouse website (which features folks like Terrence Moore, Jay Mariotti and Kevin Blackistone, ESPN “Around the Horn” regulars all) argued that since Deadspin gets 20 million hits a month they are as “mainstream” as anyone. This is not a fair analysis as the issue most of us have with the “mainstream” is the issue of access which is something Deadspin surely does not have. “Mainstream” is not a matter of size but of access and methodology.

You know I enjoy a good bashing of the mainstream media and their misdeeds. What Deadspin did here though is too far. This was nothing more than the actions of a frustrated five year old getting punished and deciding to rat out his brother and sister for everything they’ve done wrong.

I have read enough about ESPN to know that theirs is an organization that seems to have more than their share of this sort of misbehavior. It is entirely reasonable that ESPN come under some significant criticism for a culture that appears to at the very least not frown upon this sort of thing.

But I cannot imagine why Deadspin (or any news outlet of any ilk) would feel an expectation of confirmation from ESPN. Like any business ESPN is going to prefer to keep its dirty laundry under wraps.

If Daulerio and Deadspin want to break a story they should access their sources and do so. If they are scooped or beaten or just fail to break the story then they should work harder and smarter next time around. Browbeating people or organizations is the action of a bully and that is just wrong and in this case while ESPN deserves some criticism for their culture, to me the party that was in the wrong was Deadspin.
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Some miscellany;

- Quiz Time - It took your boy Freddy 70 seconds

- Tony Massarotti with a comprehensive if occasionally misguided (how was Saito “grossly overpaid”?) look at the Sox payroll commitments the next couple of years.

- Fox announced this week that Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen will be in the broadcast booth for the World Series. The obvious prediction is that anything goes with the outspoken and often vulgar Guillen in the booth. Guillen is a grown up so I expect he’ll at least manage to watch his language.

What I find particularly interesting here though is Guillen’s accented English. When I’ve heard him speak he has done so with a heavy accent. I am trying to remember another analyst who spoke with such a pronounced non-English based accent. It is possible that Guillen may be opening some doors with his presence in the booth.

ALCS Game Five Recap

The Angels live to fight another day after an exciting 7-6 victory over the Yankees on Wednesday night. This was the third truly memorable game in what so far has been an interesting series.

The Yankees threatened early and appeared to have loaded the bases with no outs but a 3-2 pitch to Teixeira was called strike three and a promising inning fizzled from there. In the bottom of the inning the Angels hacked away at A.J. Burnett and put four runs on the board.

For the next several innings nothing much happened as neither team threatened. The Yankees had a threat going in the sixth but Lackey pitched his way out of that and entered the seventh with the 4-0 lead in place.

The top of the 7th went poorly for the Angels as the Bombers loaded the bases with one out. Mike Scoscia had a decision to make and he elected to stay with John Lackey to face the lefty Johnny Damon. Damon flew to left holding the runners and Lackey was one out away from escaping.

Curiously Scoscia then lifted Lackey for Darren Oliver to face Mark Teixeira. There is no discernable edge to turning Teixeira around, he had a .911 OPS vs. LHP and a .951 OPS vs. RHP. So the question becomes do you want Darren Oliver fresh against Teixeira or a tiring (but only at 104 pitches) John Lackey against Teixeira?

For what it’s worth Oliver has allowed RHB a .793 OPS in his career while Lackey holds LHB to a .727 OPS.

If it was me I would have wanted either Lackey or hard throwing Kevin Jepsen against Teixeira. Oliver is a nice but limited pitcher and he did not do the job allowing two hits around an intentional walk to tie the game. Jepsen (my guy!) came on and allowed a go ahead triple to Cano. Frankly, if you are going to Oliver against Teixeira I do not understand the choice of removing him for the lefty Cano though Cano does have limited platoon splits.

Up 6-4 Joe Girardi decided to stick with his starter and again I have to question the move. After a long inning like this one and with a strong bullpen I like the idea of letting the relievers start clean. With the long wait it’s easy for a guy like Burnett to get a little tight. I would have had Chamberlain or Hughes start the inning. Put your foot on your opponent’s throat then press down.

In any case Burnett allowed a single and a walk and then reliever Marte was given one out on a sacrifice and Abreu grounded out to make the score 6-5. Guerrero then bounced one to center tying the game and when Morales singled the Angels had the lead. The Yanks threatened in the 9th but Swisher was retired and the Angels had survived a game with some great talking points;

- This is a perfect example of the sub-optimal “closer” position. The game was clearly on the line in the 7th inning but Mariano Rivera was nowhere to be seen. I have no issue with Girardi not making this move, no manager would have, but if he goes to Rivera in lieu of Marte the Yankees probably win the game.

- This will be an opportunity for people to point to A.J. Burnett’s inability to pitch in big games. A.J. certainly pitched poorly in the first but to my eyes he demonstrated real poise in righting the ship and pitching very well until the 7th.

I think where Burnett gets this rep is a misunderstanding of what he is. What he is NOT is a great pitcher, he is a good pitcher with some command issues. Because of this against top level competition he can get knocked around. Obviously the Angels are a good hitting club and can make life difficult for any pitcher.

- I loved Mike Scoscia’s creativity in using Jered Weaver in the 8th. Given how well he pitched and the issues with Fuentes over the past couple of months I don’t know why Weaver did not pitch the ninth. If Fuentes is so helpless against Rodriguez in that spot that you have to walk him intentionally he is just not the guy that should be in the game. This is not walking him to pitch to Freddy Guzman or Brett Gardner, Hideki Matsui is a good hitter in his own right.

Game Six will be Saturday night in the Bronx. I expect the series to end there and then. The Yankees’ offense has been a bit quiet so far this post-season but with the outburst in Game Four and the six run inning in Game Five they are looking like they are snapping out of their funk.

NLCS Game Five Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies steamrolled their way to their second consecutive World Series berth becoming the first team since the 2000/2001 Yankees and first NL team since the 1995/1996 Braves to win successive League Championship Series. The Phillies did this despite suffering horrible seasons from their shortstop and leadoff man Jimmy Rollins and their closer Brad Lidge.

Game Five was a wipeout as the Phils jumped on starter Vicente Padilla for six runs and had him out of there by the fourth inning. Meanwhile, Phillie starter Cole Hamels could not lock down a big lead for the second consecutive start. Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel was not in the mood to assuage anyone’s feelings and with Hamels two outs away from qualifying for a win but struggling Manuel lifted Hamels in the fifth.

From there J.A. Happ and Chad Durbin got the Phils through the fifth. When Durbin worked a 1-2-3 sixth the Phillies rewarded him with a two run homer from Shane Victorino and the fans at Citizens Bank Ballpark could taste the champagne.

The Dodgers had one last gasp as they pushed across a run in the 8th and loaded the bases with no outs. Down 9-4 things were grim but they had a puncher’s chance. A pop up, a strike out and a ground out eliminated that chance however.

It is hard to find moments to criticize or praise in a 10-4 game. To me there were two crucial decisions in this game that mattered. One was Manuel’s decisive move to lift Hamels in the fifth, the other was Joe Torre’s choice of starting pitcher.

Vicente Padilla has pitched well for the Dodgers but to start Padilla is to give too much credit to the last 40 innings of his career and ignore the previous 1400. On the other hand, while Kershaw can be exasperating he is a very good pitcher. To skip Kershaw, particularly against the Phillies lefty-heavy lineup, is to similarly give too much weight to one bad start a week ago and ignore what he has done in nearly 300 MLB innings.

In Red Sox terms this would be starting Paul Byrd at the expense of Daisuke Matsuzaka. Nothing against Byrd but Matsuzaka is the better pitcher.

Clayton Kershaw did not pitch particularly well in game one (nor in fairness in his relief stint in this game) but he is a superior pitcher to Vicente Padilla. I mentioned when the series began that I liked the idea of Padilla twice in Dodger Stadium when his limitations are um…limited by the ballpark. Pitching him in Philly was a mistake and it proved to be one that sent the Dodgers home for the winter.

Congratulations to the Philadelphia Phillies on their National League pennant!

The Elephant

Some time in the next few days the New York Yankees are going to win their 40th American League pennant and quite frankly I’ll be stunned if they don’t win World Series title number 27 a week or so after that.

This is of course going to generate a variety of commentaries. Many will point to the overwhelming financial advantages afforded to the Yankees as the prime reason for their success while others (including modt Yankee fans) will point to the financial windfall bestowed by the Yankees onto teams such as the Pirates, Marlins and others as well as their "homegrown" talent.

To say that the New York Yankees have succeeded so dramatically in 2009 and for much of the recent past is insulting to the men who assemble the team. As teams like the Mets, Dodgers and others have shown, it is pretty easy to spend big money on a team and watch a season go down the toilet.

At the same time, any fair comparison of MLB’s parity versus the sainted NFL’s parity is demonstrative of the lack of impact of a salary cap. Not that people around here are particularly upset about it but the New England Patriots record over the past decade and a half is very similar to that of the Yankees, five Super Bowl berths, three titles, and well on their way to a seventh divisional title in nine years.

So to simply dismiss the Yankees’ accomplishments based on the money they spend is just wrong.

(boy you can see this coming can’t ya’?)

BUT…

Those who wish to paint the Yankees as simply succeeding by strength of genius and a “willingness” to spend money are equally foolhardy. Some will go so far as to decry the “unfairness” of the Yankees requirement to contribute to a central fund.

The Yankees generate spectacular levels of income. According to Forbes magazine the Yankees income is nearly 20% of all income generated by MLB teams. To suggest that the Yankees don’t benefit immensely from this money is silliness and as others point out the Yankees don’t generate this money by their lonesome, intrasquad games aren’t going to create the type of interest that rakes in the dough the way it is now.

One of the common themes we hear from this side of the debate is to note the number of “homegrown” players the Yankees have. In my mind once a player has reached six years in the league (arguably sooner due to arbitration demands) a player is no-longer “homegrown.”
It’s great that the Yankees developed Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada and they are to be appauded for that. That they are still with the Yankees has a LOT more to do with the $35 million they are receiving than where they played Single A ball. The 1997 Expos featured Vladimir Guerrero and Pedro Martinez but while the Washington Nationals are sitting at home tonight, those two players are getting ready to play some baseball.

The fact is that the Yankees began the season with a $52 million payroll edge over every team in baseball. In other words, put every team in a box with a maximum payroll but then let one team start with that same payroll plus Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira for free.

Which team are you betting on?

So what’s the point to all this? The point is that as the Yankees pursue pennant #40 and World Series #27 they do so because of a blend of shrewd management and tremendous financial advantages. It’s easy to say “oh, any team would pay $30 million for Alex Rodriguez” but two short winters ago more than a few folks were arguing that A-Rod wasn’t worth the money it would take to replace Mike Lowell with him.

The New York Yankees are succeeding in 2009 because they have taken advantage of their circumstances while also managing their resources well. By the same token, they DO start with a tremendous advantage, ‘twas ever thus and shall ever be. Anyone who argues that the Yankees succeed only due to the money is ridiculous as is anyone arguing that the Yankees don’t have a big advantage because of it.

Life isn’t fair and neither is baseball.

More on Jacoby

Reader and regular commenter mike b1 had some thoughts on yesterday’s piece about Jacoby Ellsbury that I thought warranted a closer look;

“By the same token, wouldn't Pedroia be a superior leadoff hitter because 1) he has a consistently higher OBP and 2) while he doesn't have Ellsbury's speed or basestealing prowess, he hits far more doubles, which negates the need for the SB?”

This is a good but somewhat flawed point. Dustin Pedroia would be a better leadoff hitter because he’s a better offensive player than Jacoby Ellsbury. Dustin Pedroia would be better in any spot in the order than Jacoby Ellsbury. The question is whether given the structure of the Boston Red Sox offense if it makes sense to lead off Jacoby Ellsbury.

Mike is a smart guy and asks a couple of relevant questions;

“But who hits more singles: Pedroia or Ellsbury?”

The implication is obvious, a good leadoff man needs to get in scoring position somehow. This sent me digging into Baseball-Reference. The easy answer is “Ellsbury hits more singles.” The easy answer is not always the best answer though and we have the tools to evaluate things a bit deeper.

What we find is that courtesy of extra base hits or steals of second base that Ellsbury reached second base under his own power 101 times in 2009 (45 XBH, 56 steals of 2nd). By contrast, Pedroia did so just 79 times (64 XBH, 15 steals of 2nd). Ellsbury by virtue of being such a great base stealer concedes just two bases on caught stealings as he was caught stealing second nine times while Pedroia was caught seven times.

The end result is that while Pedroia has substantially more power than Ellsbury (ISO of .151 vs. .114 for Jacoby) he is less likely to reach 2nd base under his own power. Thus, having Ellsbury in front of Pedroia creates a benefit because Ellsbury reaching base followed by a hit by Pedroia is more likely to generate a run than a Pedroia reaching base/Ellsbury hit is.

Mike knows his stuff though and isn’t going to just accept that part of the answer. He knows there are bad things that happen too and he asks; “who is more likely to hit into a DP?”

Somewhat surprisingly Ellsbury and Pedroia grounded into DPs at about the same rate in 2009 (14% for Pedroia, 12% for Ellsbury). It seems intuitively that Ellsbury would not ground into a lot of double plays because his speed would avoid them.

However, Jacoby hits a high number of ground balls, more than any other player on the team. Thus, the first factor of a ground ball double play, the ground ball, is more likely to happen with Ellsbury at bat than anyone else. Because of this he grounds into double plays at a rate above league average.

Lineup construction is a tricky thing. In the simplest terms you want your best hitters to get the most plate appearances. There is benefit to having power hitters bat with people on base, a three run home run is more beneficial than a solo home run (really, you couldn’t get to these answers on your own, I am a professional, do not try this at home).

The Sox as constructed in 2009 certainly would not have wanted David Ortiz, Mike Lowell or Alex Gonzalez bat in front of Jacoby Ellsbury. Because of his minimal power Ellsbury is ill-suited to be a sixth place hitter and in fact would not be as productive in any role where he is likely to bat with people on base in front of him as others are. Batting him ninth as a “second lead-off man” would create a scenario where inferior hitters were getting plate appearances at his expense.

Dustin Pedroia, J.D. Drew, Victor Martinez and Kevin Youkilis would all be better leadoff hitters than Jacoby Ellsbury simply because they are better hitters. Given the structure of the Boston Red Sox having Ellsbury lead off (assuming his improved ability to reach base in 2009 is for real) makes more sense than having him bat elsewhere in the lineup.

Jacoby Ellsbury - A Slightly Closer Look

One of the most notable events of the 2009 season was the emergence of Jacoby Ellsbury into a solid leadoff hitter. While Ellsbury is still (and likely never will be) a superstar he seemed to solidify his place at the top of the order less than a year after being benched for the playoffs due to poor performance.

With that in mind I wanted to take a look at some areas where Ellsbury did or did not improve and see what that may portend for the future;

Plate Discipline

A key for any leadoff hitter is the ability to control the strike zone. Johnny Damon is a great example of a leadoff hitter who succeeds at this despite not walking with great frequency.

Ellsbury had a good year in this regard. It looks like he took the time to wait for “his pitch” as he swung at far fewer pitches (41%) while dropping the number of pitches outside the strike zone he swung at from 26% (above league average) to 24% (below league average).

This suggests that despite a relatively stable walk rate Ellsbury in fact was taking a more disciplined approach at the plate. This led to Ellsbury hitting popping up only half as often as he did in 2008 suggesting he was making much more solid contact on a regular basis.

Balls in Play

A hitter like Ellsbury is going to be at his best when he is using the whole field. The more ground players, particularly infielders, have to cover on his batted balls is going to make him a tough out as any sort of distance traveled to field a grounder is going to make throwing out the speedster difficult.

Based on observation it seemed that Ellsbury was using the whole field to much better effectiveness in 2009. The initial look at the numbers suggest my eyes may not be what they once were as his spread of batted balls (25% RF, 56% CF, 19% LF) was almost identical to 2008 (24%, 56%, 21%).

What was drastically different was the results. In 2008 Ellsbury hit .446 on balls he pulled while hitting .278 on balls to center and .323 on balls to left. In 2009 he turned that around hitting .312 on balls he pulled, .317 on balls up the middle and .456 on balls he hit the other way.

What strikes me here is that Ellsbury had better results overall with no real dead zones. Also, by reducing his strikeouts the gazelle-like centerfielder was better able to take advantage of his speed. Unlike a power hitter a slap hitter like Ellsbury is going to benefit greatly by reducing his swing and just putting the ball in play.

Conclusion

These are two areas I wanted to look at for Ellsbury. I see a player who is somewhat limited as a hitter but this is two areas where I think some growth can be reasonably expected.

He will never hit 20-25 home runs (unless he follows Damon to the Bronx) but by improving his discipline at the plate he can be a more accomplished hitter. Add to that an ability to succeed by using all parts of the ball park and he should find himself as a key contributor. With his great speed and base stealing acumen he is more beneficial in a leadoff roll than a player with his relatively modest OBP otherwise would be. The strides he made this year seem to be taking him in the right direction for that role.

LCS Recap

New York – Los Angeles

I really am fascinated at the managing of this series. Neither manager is covering himself in glory and on Monday afternoon the Angels got back into the series with a come from behind eleven inning victory over the Yankees.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the 11th when Girardi inexplicably lifted David Robertston after just two batters to bring in Alfredo Aceves. If Aceves is your guy why not start the inning with him? Robertston had retired the first two men he faced and after being lifted on came Aceves to give up a single to Kendrick and the game winning double to Jeff Mathis.

But where Girardi really shot himself in the foot was in the bottom of the tenth with the switch that set events in motion. I loved his decision to go to Rivera in the 10th and I really liked his dice roll to use the DH Hairston to replace Damon in that frame, that’s the kind of outside the box thinking your man Freddy enjoys so much.

However, why Hairston? With Freddy Guzman on the bench he has another outfielder and he can put Guzman in place of Damon, who he was going to lose anyway. This would have allowed him to have Guzman up third in the 11th rather than Rivera (putting the DH in the field requires the pitcher bat in the replaced fielder’s spot).

By making the move this way Girardi would have had the ability to use Rivera for one more inning. Instead, he had to use Cervelli as a pinch hitter (neither Guzman nor Cervelli is Albert Pujols) removing Rivera from the game after just thirteen “real” pitches (he also threw the four intentional balls).

- I love that the Angels are carrying three catchers. A third catcher is much more valuable in a seven game series than a 12th pitcher. With that said what is the point of carrying that third catcher if you won’t pinch run for the 2nd catcher?

The Angels caught a break on the bunt when Rivera threw the ball away, had he not Mathis would have been a dead duck whereas Willits would have made it a close play. Then, with Mathis at third if Willits is going on contact even with the infield in when Teixeira made his great play he would not have been able to get to his feet and throw Willits out.

In fact Willits likely would have scored on the bunt play as he would have been quicker to jump up and race home ahead of the predictable Johnny Damon lollipop throw. Mathis obviously wound up the hero but the Angels could have won the game sooner had they lifted him in the 10th.

- The Angles continue to run the bases with a degree of difficulty. In the fifth Hunter was picked off with Guerrero at the plate and a 3-1 count. With a guy like Guerrero up and one out in a 2-0 game there was a good chance good things were about to happen. There was no reason to be running there and he simply had to stay at home and the Angels had a good shot at a big inning.

As bad as that was Abreu’s decision in the 8th was much worse. In a tie game in the bottom of the 8th a leadoff double is a huge blow. If you are going to go to third in that situation the decision simply requires that you make it. If you have even a hint of a doubt, you DO NOT GO.

The fact is the Angels aggressive/undisciplined style is one that works better against poor teams than good teams. They were fortunate to win this game but so far in this series their base running and their defense are letting them down mightily, they can ill-afford to give away outs on either side of the ball against a team as good as the Yankees.

- The story today will be Girardi’s decision to start Sabathia on short rest. This is an interesting decision. Since the advent of the Division Series in 1995 95 pitchers have pitched on three days rest with an ERA of 4.48 while pitchers on four or more days rest have an ERA of 4.13.

This is not relevant to Sabathia who in four career starts on short rest (one in 2001, three more with Milwaukee at the end of last year) has an ERA of 1.01. Small sample sizes and all this feels like a good risk to me given the options (a scuffling Joba Chamberlain or Chad Guadin) and the fact that because of tomorrow’s off day Sabathia will be able to pitch Game Seven on regular rest.

Los Angeles - Philadelphia

The evening game was dramatic in its own right though it paled in comparison to the back and forth nature of the afternoon game. The Phillies jumped out fast on a two run homer from Ryan Howard in the first but Randy Wolf settled down from there and kept the Phillies off the board while the Dodgers rallied for four two-out runs in the middle innings to build a 4-2 lead.

I thought both managers did a nice job handling their bullpens. In each case the starter tired around the sixth and both clubs went back and forth to keep the opponent off the board. With two on/two out in the eighth Torre went to his closer Broxton to snuff out a threat

I would love to be able to sit here and say “see, here’s another case of slavish devotion to a closer costing a team a game” but I can’t. Broxton was the right guy there. After throwing five pitches to Werth in the 8th he threw a total of 13 more in the ninth so fatigue should not have been an issue for him, he just got beat.

- The Phils now have to deal with the useless off day today. While understanding that momentum is only as good as tomorrow’s starting pitcher I’m not a fan of having a day off when my team is playing well. It’s a day for the bats to go cold, for gloves to leaden and for arms to grow stiff. I’ll forever believe the off day helped the Sox in 2007 and the Phillies will have to hope it does not help the Dodgers in 2009.

LCS Roundup

Rarely does the conventional wisdom so presciently describe a game as well as it did for Game Three of the 2009 NLCS. Prior to the series one of the concerns for the Dodgers was how Game Three would play out. With Cliff Lee on the hill for Philly the Phils were confident of a quality start while Hiroki Kuroda was an injury-driven question mark.

Sure enough, Kuroda got hammered, Lee pitched very well and the Phillies put the Dodgers in a 2-1 hole with an 11-0 victory. Sometimes an 11-0 game is just a good old-fashioned butt kicking while other times there are moments where you could see the game slipping away and one or two plays could have turned the tide.

This one was the former. It is difficult to point to any moment where the Dodgers really could have done anything differently other than “play better” that could have turned this one in their favor.

With the superfluous off day after Game Four you can argue that Torre may have been prudent in rushing to his bullpen. The fact is that after five batters it was already 4-0 and Torre had Kuroda out of there after ten batters. I do not think anything could have been done differently.

About the only good thing that happened for the Dodgers was they stayed away from Kuo, Sherrill and Broxton. I think both managers would have been wise to lift their starting catchers and give them a little break but that is being nitpicky.
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In the ALCS the Yankees are up 2-0 with a 4:13 EST start this afternoon. Looking back on Saturday night there are two things I did not highlight that I want to address.

The first in the bottom of the 11th. With a 3-2 lead Mike Scoscia saw Brian Fuentes give up a solo home run to Alex Rodriguez to start the inning. Since the rest of the inning featured Freddy Guzman, Brett Gardner and Robinson Cano with Melky Cabrera to follow one could argue that walking Rodriguez, the leadoff hitter, would have been prudent.

I do not agree with this. Walking A-Rod would have led to a near-certain sacrifice. Assuming success Gardner or Cano would have merely needed to single to tie the game. Even if you assume that they are both .200 hitters against the lefty Fuentes that is still a 40% likelihood of occurring, an outcome far more likely than Rodriguez’ home run.

The other is the decision by Maicer Izturis to try for the out at second base. Here is a real world application of sabermetrics and a situation where a sabermetrically savvy player could have helped his team.

Tom Tango wrote a piece detailing the win expectancy between the difference of making the play at second versus making the play at first that identified a 1% benefit to getting the out at second. Conversely, I think we can agree that results aside, the likelihood of the error on the throw at second was far greater than an error on a throw to first would have been.

Look, I don’t expect Maicer Izturis or any MLB player to be saying to himself as he runs for the ball “OK, if I field this ball and throw to second my team has a 33.9% chance of winning but if I go to first we have a 32.6% chance of winning.” What I do expect is a professional ballplayer to have an understanding that the difference is negligible and getting the out at first is the right play.

When I was 8 years old playing little league I was taught to anticipate what to do when the ball was hit to me. A Major League player should be doing that to an extended degree and determining what to do on a hard hit ball, softly hit ball, ball to his right and ball to his left. Izturis needed to have decided what to do on a ball hit like that before the pitch was thrown.

Instincts matter but preparation is key. Had Maicer Izturis properly evaluated the situation and considered the impact of getting the out at 1st versus getting the out at 2nd in advance he likely would have made the correct play and the Angels may have lived to fight. Knowing the percentages is useful in evaluation but it has some application on the field as well.

Sunday Notes

The post-season is upon us and with it comes the usual caterwauling about various subjects. One of the standard complaints this time of year is “the season is too long.” Personally, I don’t quite comprehend the concept of “too much baseball” but there is something to be said for the calendar length of the season.

It has not always been so. In the early days of the 20th century seasons were quite short. When the Red Sox won the first World Series the season had been just 140 games. Due to the timing of the start of the season the Sox dogpiled (or whatever victorious teams did back then, patted each other on the back and shouted “bravo” I guess) on October 13th.

The next year, and for the majority of the next five decades the season was 154 games save for a couple of World War I shortened seasons. 57 years to the day later Bill Mazeroski hit his famous home run off Ralph Terry as that October 13th date remained the end of the season.

In 1961 the 162 game season was introduced with expansion. In 1967 when the Sox fell to the Cardinals they did so on October 12th. The introduction of the split to four divisions in 1969 saw a slight delay as the World Series ended on October 16th. As doubleheaders faded and the LCS was expanded from five to seven games in 1985 the season was extended further. In the final year of the four division alignment, 1993, Joe Carter struck his home run on October 23rd.

The addition of the Division Series extended the season a bit more but even as recently as 2003 the World Series would have ended on October 25th. For 2009 the scheduled end date is now November 5th. The reason for this is due in part to the timing of the start of the season but part of it is due to the ridiculous number of off days in the post-season.

In 2001 when the A’s and Yankees played a five game series stretching coast to coast Game Four was in New York on October 14th and Game Five was in Oakland on October 15th, one day later.

The world did not come to an end and no one on either team was irreparably damaged.

In 2003 and 2004 the Red Sox and Yankees played seven game series with just two scheduled off days after just one scheduled off day after the Division Series. The first ALDS series in 2003 started the Tuesday after the season started.

This year the earliest LDS was scheduled for Wednesday, not Tuesday. The Division Series features at least two, and in one case three, off days. But the most ridiculous change is the addition of a truly superfluous off day between Games Four and Five of the respective LCS.

I can understand the desire to provide a travel day for clubs but some consolidation is needed. The post-season should begin on the Tuesday, not Wednesday after the season. The Division Series should feature just one off day not two and the LCS should absolutely, positively, never, ever, under no circumstances, have an off day that does not involve travel.

Doing things this way would have resulted in the following schedule for 2009;

LDS – Tuesday 10/6 to Sunday 10/11
LCS – Tuesday 10/13 to Wednesday 10/21
WS – Saturday 10/24 to Sunday 10/31

If MLB and the networks want to have the World Series start on Tuesday for TV that’s fine, have the season end on a different day of the week. The world will not cease spinning on its axis if the season does not end on a Sunday.

One week won’t make a different but my plan creates 19 game days and 7 off days. Still quite a few off days but a reasonable ratio. The current set up is 19 game days and 11 off days. Baseball is meant to be played every day, fewer off days are better, not worse.

There is also a competitive aspect of this. I did this a bit off the cuff but I believe there have been nine series to go seven games since 2001. Three of them, the 2003 and 2004 ALCS and 2006 NLCS, featured a rain out that resulted in a compressed series. This accelerated timeline meant that the drama built from the marathon of a season to a hang onto the seat of your pants sprint.

A shorter schedule also causes a managerial drama. One of the great things about baseball is that over the course of a season things get a little gritty. The best laid plans fall by the wayside and with the compressed schedule this is a possibility for the post-season. With the extra off days the possibilities of a Derek Lowe pitching on two days rest or a Keith Foulke throwing 100 pitches in three days go out the window.

More baseball is better than less baseball. The differences in weather between mid and late October are pretty minimal (it snowed in Boston today, not much, but still…). However, baseball is meant to be played on a daily basis and having less off days is a good thing and something Major League Baseball should implement as soon as possible.
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If there was one theme that ran through the four Division Series it was of failure by closers. In all four series the team that lost saw their designated closer blow a ninth inning lead that cost his team a game with two of them doing so in the decisive game.

These weren’t random guys either. Ryan Franklin is the new kid on the block but Huston Street has been a closer for several years and Joe Nathan is generally regarded as the third best closer in baseball. The Red Sox’ entry to this ignominious list, Jonathan Papelbon, was on the verge of tying Christy Mathewson’s century old record for most consecutive shutout post-season innings at the start of a career.

The point being that these weren’t the types of closers that sabermetric types like to be critical of, these were elite pitchers.

This of course led to some discussion of the difficulties of closing in the post-season. Tom Verducci led the charge writing “There is the element of pressure, of course. But there are also so much more detailed scouting reports and so much studying of that information…Finally, there is also more intense focus by the batters in the postseason. No one gives away an at-bat in the ninth inning of a postseason game.”

This is a fairly interesting breakdown by Verducci whose work I enjoy. He raises several good points and I think any of us would have to concede that his logic is sound. All of these factors are indeed evident in the post-season versus the regular season.

Thanks to Baseball-Reference we can see how impactful this is. I looked at the ratio of saves to blown saves since 2000 in both the regular season and post-season. Here are the numbers;

Regular season
Saves – 12,076
Blown Saves – 6,049
Save Percentage – 66.6%

Post-season
Saves – 147
Blown Saves – 70
Save Percentage – 67.7%

What we see is that the save percentage is higher in the regular season than the post-season, a counterintuitive result.

This does not conclusively mean that it is just as easy to notch a save in the post-season as the regular season. What this does mean is that in the past ten years the reasonably suggested added difficulty does not become impactful.

Also, it should be noted that the “blown saves” listed above are not just those earned in those ninth inning, “the whole world is watching,” kind of moments. A blown save could also be in a 3-2 game in the sixth inning. I am comfortable with this because the methodology for both sets is the same.

Is it hard to perform in the post-season? Of course it is. To me I think the biggest difference is simply that there are no gimmes in the post-season. In the post-season the number nine hitter is a .312 hitting Erick Aybar, the .240 hitting Yuniesky Betancourt’s are rare if not non-existent.
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With the two LCS in full swing I thought I might share my opinion for the best of final four. Here now my “All-LCS Team”

1B – Mark Teixeira – New York Yankees
2B – Chase Utley – Philadelphia Phillies
3B – Alex Rodriguez – New York Yankees
SS – Derek Jeter – New York Yankees
LF – Manny Ramirez – Los Angeles Dodgers
CF – Matt Kemp – Los Angeles Dodgers
RF – Bobby Abreu – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
C – Jorge Posada – New York Yankees
SP – C.C. Sabathia – New York Yankees
SP – John Lackey – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
SP – Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies
SP – Cliff Lee – Philadelphia Phillies
RP – Mariano Rivera – New York Yankees
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The folks over at Driveline Mechanics have taken some time to take a look at catcher defense. The piece is a pretty involved piece and seems well-researched.

Catcher defense is a bit of an interesting area because while the conventional wisdom is that defense is a vital part of the catcher’s job description it’s difficult to quantify. That most quantifiable aspect of a catcher’s job, game calling, has been found to be at best unable to be proved and at worst a load of bunk.

The Driveline team has done a nice job here though. What they have done is break down a catcher’s role into four areas; the ability to block pitches, the ability to throw out runners stealing, throwing errors and fielding errors. What they found is…well wait a minute, I want to share something they wrote;

“Keep in mind…that current season performance is not the same thing as true talent.”

This is an important point. Just as hitters and pitchers can have good and bad years so too can fielders. So this is not predictive but just a statement of how these players performed based on this methodology.

With that said let’s see what they found;

- Gerald Laird of the Tigers was the best defensive catcher in baseball in 2009
- Mike Napoli of the Angels was the worst defensive catcher this year
- Jason Varitek actually rates above average in all areas except his ability to throw out runners.
- Of the four LCS teams three of the catchers rate very poorly defensive. Napoli of course is last (114th), Posada is 109th and Martin is 101st. Carlos Ruiz rates quite well scoring 8th overall.
- Victor Martinez rates about 90th (they split him among the two teams so you have to do some additional math to score him). He’s average on the error categories and at blocking pitches while rating poorly at throwing runners out.

This last one surprised me a bit. I would have expected Martinez to rate poorly across the board based on what I saw. My father opined at Game Three of the ALDS that every throw Martinez makes seems to sail high and wide. Watching him that day just on the between innings throws that certainly seemed an accurate assessment.

If you are interested in catchers’ defense this piece is an interesting one to check out.
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Some LCS thoughts through two games on each side;

NLCS

- The Dodgers have to be pretty happy as they awake in Philadelphia. They were six outs from defeat on Friday afternoon when Chase Utley shockingly made his second error in as many games opening the floodgates for them.

When Utley made his error in Game One the feed from Rollins was not good and the runner was on top of him. In Game Two there were no such causes, it was as routine a double play as they come and Utley simply blew it.

- You might want to be critical of Charlie Manuel for all the pitching changes in the 8th but I did not see anything that raised my hackles. His moves were good but his players failed him. There was no reason for Park not to come up with Belliard’s bunt, the Utley error was poor and J.A. Happ couldn’t find the strike zone for the second straight day.

It is hard to win when in a one run game you misplay a bunt for a single, commit an error and walk two batters. The Dodgers didn’t do anything to take this game from the Phils but let the Phils give it to them.

- Do not interpret the above comment as a dismissal of Vicente Padilla’s performance. He was absolutely magnificent and while the Phils gave the game away in the 8th the Dodgers were in position to accept the gift because of Padilla’s brilliance.

- Pedro Martinez started the seventh inning at 77 pitches. Any kind of modestly long inning would have put Martinez up over 90 pitches and I suspect Charlie Manuel told him the 7th was his final inning. Martinez was strong and efficient in the inning and at 87 pitches conceivably could have come out for the 8th but I feel that would have been an error by Manuel. Pedro clearly thought he was done (he did the point to the heavens thing walking off) and asking for more would have been playing with fire.

- This series is as open as a 1-1 series would be expected to be. I would give a slight edge to Philadelphia right now based on the fact that when Game Five rolls around the Phillies should feel confident in Cole Hamels pitching well while Clayton Kershaw is a bit of a wild card for the Dodgers.

ALCS

- Through five games maybe the most shocking thing about the post-season is that the Yankees have struggled to hit. This talented offense so far has been held in check but their strong pitching has done the job for them.

- Speaking of not hitting, the invisbility of Chone Figgins is killing the Angels. Providing you with the kind of insight only Freddy can provide when a team doesn't get anything from its leadoff hitter it is fairly difficult to generate runs.

- Give Joe Girardi credit for his decision to go to Mariano Rivera in the 8th inning of Game Two with the score tied. Like Charlie Manuel in Game One Girardi chose activity over passivity and it was the right decision.
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One of the underlying discussions of the post-season is the potency and depth of the New York Yankees offense. The Yanks are unquestionably a tremendous offensive team featuring shocking depth. From one to nine they roll out a lineup that features players that can do damage.

But are they historically deep? How does one even answer that question? Well, as with most questions like this I turn to the Baseball Reference Play Index (Sean Forman is America’s greatest hero).

I started with a look at the teams that featured the most players with an OPS+ of 110 or higher and at least 450 plate appearances. I found four teams that had seven players meet this criteria;

2009 Yankees – The only two regulars not to meet these criteria were Jorge Posada (OPS+ of 130, only 438 PA) and Melky Cabrera who had an OPS+ of 97.
2003 Red Sox – Johnny Damon (OPS+ of 94) and Todd Walker (95) were the outliers here. Belated kudos to Grady Little for batting his two least accomplished hitters 1st and 2nd. Verdict – Not as deep as the Yankees
1978 Brewers – Outliers were Cecil Cooper (133 OPS+ but only 448 PA) and Paul Molitor (OPS+ 89). The regular lineup featured either catcher Charlie Moore (OPS+ 85) or Buck Martinez (50). Verdict – Not as deep
1931 Yankees – In this pre-DH age seven of eight Yankee regulars had an OPS+ over 110 with only Hall of Famer Tony Lazzeri’s OBP-heavy 107 OPS+. Had they gone to a DH it appears that Sammy Byrd was the primary pinch hitter (115 games, 281 PA) with an OPS+ of 99. Verdict – Adjusted for the lack of a DH I would argue they are just as deep.

This is all well and good but I found the 450 PA/110 OPS+ a bit limiting. I wanted to include some teams that maybe had some injuries to deal with. I dropped the criteria down to 400 PA and an OPS+ of 100.

With the criteria adjusted to this level I found 13 teams that had eight players meet these criteria. I’ll spare you the same exercise as above but this is 13 teams that could be put alongside the Yankees in terms of depth. Except there is a fourteenth team.

The fourteenth team featured not eight players meeting this criteria, not nine, but TEN players with an OPS+ of 100 or higher. What depth! What potency! Even more amazing about this team is that it was a great base running team taking extra bases at a rate far and away first in the league.

Who is this team that can match the Yankees top to bottom?

The 2009 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

If it makes you feel any better I did not realize they featured this type of depth either. I knew they were good, but historically so? While the Angels don’t have the big bopper strength of the Yankees they have no gimmes in their lineup either.

The Yankees are indeed a historically deep team. Rare is a team that features the kind of firepower the Yankees can bring to bear. Depending on how one defines “depth” the Yankees may be the deepest lineup in baseball history.

Or they may not even be the deepest lineup in the series.
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Some miscellany;

- A nice piece here by former MLB commissioner Fay Vincent about the police Commander (Isiah Nelson) who was in charge of the police the day of the Loma Prieta earthquake that interrupted game three of the 1989 World Series and caused such devastation to the region.

- There are three books out this fall that I have not yet read but I think look interesting. Now that the Red Sox are done we can look ahead to the Christmas shopping season and these look like they may belong under your favorite baseball fan’s tree, menorah or pole;

* "Evalutating Baseball Managers" by Chris Jaffe – I heard a 30 minute talk given by Jaffe at the SABR convention this past summer and if the book is anywhere as good as the talk it’s going to be a doozy. Jaffe is an excellent writer (check out The Hardball Times for his stuff) and I expect this book to be top notch.
* "Game Six: Cincinnati, Boston and the 1975 World Series" by Mark Frost – This book has gotten some excellent reviews and the subject matter is certainly one of interest to anyone around here.
* "The First Fall Classic" by Mike Vaccaro – The 1912 World Series won by the Red Sox is one that would probably be universally hailed as the greatest of all time if TV coverage of it existed.

It went eight games due to a tie (game called on account of darkness), featured a couple of inner circle Hall of Famers in Mathewson and Speaker and the final game went ten innings with the Giants taking a lead in the top of the inning and the Sox winning it in the bottom of the inning helped by a blunder by a player better remembered for another blunder (Fred Merkle). Heck, there was a catch by Harry Hooper that was so controversial that on his deathbed Hooper supposedly had a note saying “I never dropped the ball.”

A book about this series simply can’t miss.

- Nice article at the New York Times here. You can't go wrong with a title like "In Baseball, Stuff Happens. Just Deal With It."

Los Angeles vs. New York – ALCS Preview/NLCS Game One Recap

The Red Sox Off-season Plan can be found by scrolling past this post or just clicking on these pretty blue letters.

Like I did with the NL preview, let’s just throw some thoughts out there;

- Both clubs are likely to use designated catchers for key starters with Jose Molina catching A.J. Burnett and Jeff Mathis catching John Lackey. Both pitchers were strong in their division series efforts but I still feel it is a mistake to make this move.

I think it is particularly bad with the Lackey/Sabathia matchup. Napoli owns lefties (1.023 OPS in 2009, .908 in his career), is 3 for 9 with a double and a homer against Sabathia and any bats you can get in there against a pitcher of Sabathia’s capability is key.

Like I said with Posada/Molina last week, there is no reason for Mathis to get an at bat after Lackey leaves the game.

- The Yankees are not blessed with great outfield arms. Swisher in right and Damon in left are pretty limited as throwers though Cabrera has a very good arm if an occasionally erratic one.

Where the Yanks pick up an advantage is that Yankee Stadium is not a park designed to encourage base running. Down the left field line and from right-center to the right field line the Stadium is similar to Fenway in that there is a limited opportunity to take an extra base.

- I said it before the DS but it warrants repeating here; Yankee Stadium is NOT a great hitters’ park, it is a great home run park but it reduces doubles and triples so the net impact is fairly minimal.

- I like the decision by Mike Scoscia to start Joe Saunders in Game Two. Turning the Yankee switch-hitters around so they bat righty is a good plan with the short right field porch.

- This series may be swung each night by the start of the sixth. With a Chamberlain/Hughes/Rivera finishing kick the Yankees should be able to bring things home pretty effectively while the Angels need to get strong outings from a group that has been inconsistent all year against potent offenses.

If the Angels aren’t playing from the front at the start of the sixth, the advantage swings dramatically to the Yankees, moreso than it would under ordinary circumstances.

- Weather could be a big factor in this series. I think rainouts help the Angels as the Yankees clearly prefer a three man rotation and a compressed series will not allow that.

Matchups:

1B – Kendry Morales vs. Mark Teixeira – EDGE: Yankees
2B – Howie Kendrick/Maicer Izturis vs. Robinson Cano – EDGE: Yankees
3B – Chone Figgins vs. Alex Rodriguez – EDGE: Yankees
SS – Erick Aybar vs. Derek Jeter – EDGE: Yankees
LF – Juan Rivera vs. Johnny Damon – EDGE: Yankees
CF – Torii Hunter vs. Melky Cabrera – EDGE: Big Angels
RF – Bobby Abreu vs. Nick Swisher – EDGE: Angels
C – Mike Napoli vs. Jorge Posada – EDGE: Yankees
SP – Lackey/Saunders/Weaver/Kazmir vs. Sabathia/Burnett/Pettitte – EDGE: Angels
RP – Fuentes et al vs. Rivera et al – EDGE: Big Yankees

The Yankees feature the preponderance of advantages but at many positions – 1st, 2nd, left and catcher the edge is not nearly as large as you might expect.

Prediction – Yankees in seven
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The Phillies took game one against the Dodgers in a wild one. After four quiet innings the fifth inning featured eight runs, five for Philadelphia and three for Los Angeles.

The key moments in the game was the top of the fifth and the bottom of the sixth. In the top of the fifth Joe Torre stuck too long with Clayton Kershaw who really had lost it. Despite the lefty/lefty matchup should never have faced Utley and Howard and the Phillies added key runs the Dodgers valiantly tried to recover from but were unable to overcome.

The Dodgers have three lefties in their bullpen in George Sherrill (.342 OPS vs. LHB), Hong-Chih Kuo (.524) and Scott Elbert (.699). Going to one of those three even as early as the fifth inning is not a bad move because Kershaw was cooked and even if Torre needed lefties twice more throughout the game he would still have had that option.

In the bottom of the sixth Charlie Manuel also made a curious move with his lefties. With Jim Thome pinch hitting he elected to go to J.A. Happ instead of Scott Eyre. As a starter Happ would have more use in a situation where he would pitch an elongated stint rather than such a short situation.

The difference though was that Manuel pulled the trigger where Torre did not. One similarity between the two situations was that the pitcher’s spot was due to lead off the next inning.

NL managers often get greedy and try to force their pitcher through such an inning to allow for a clean pinch hitting situation. With every run so vital at this stage of the season you cannot wait for things to happen. Make the move as Manuel did, do not wait for things to happen. Torre had double switch options and could also have simply burned one of his three lefties for this situation.

Torre was passive where Manuel was active and Game One went to the Phillies.

- After Thome was walked by Happ the Dodgers wanted to pinch run for Thome with Randy Wolf. Wolf had to go get his spikes on and so the game was delayed for a few minutes while we all waited.

The umpires should not have allowed this to happen. It’s one thing for a guy to gather himself a bit, maybe tie his shoes but to not have the right shoes on? Unacceptable. The umps should have started the game and had Happ begin pitching to Furcal until Wolf was ready.

This is also a situation where Joe Torre deserves criticism. He needed to make sure Wolf understood prior to the game that he may be employed as a pinch runner and to be ready for that situation. Every player has to be aware of what his role will be for these games. Communication is key.

- Torre’s choice of George Sherrill for the 8th was the right one, Sherrill just did not do the job.

- I like the choice of Pedro Martinez for tonight’s game. Similar to Vicente Padilla I think the big ballpark helps him while at the same time setting up Cliff Lee for a Game Seven start.

2009 Red Sox - An Off-season Plan

So we have spent the past several days reviewing the Boston Red Sox. I’ve tried to take a very cursory look ahead at what should be expected of the various players in 2010 and today I want to outline my plan for the Boston Red Sox.

Before we decide where we are going, we need to know where we are. Let’s hit the little “you are here” button on our FF GPS to kick things off;

1B – Kevin Youkilis
2B – Dustin Pedroia
SS – Jed Lowrie/Alex Gonzalez
3B – Mike Lowell
LF – Josh Reddick/Rocco Baldelli
CF – Jacoby Ellsbury
RF – J.D. Drew
C – Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek
DH – David Ortiz
SP – Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, Tim Wakefield
RP – Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Ramon Ramirez, Manny Delcarmen, Michael Bowden, Junichi Tazawa

So, looking at that list I think we can all agree on the following;

1. 1st Base, 2nd Base, Center Field, Right Field, Catcher and DH are pretty well set. DH may be a bit of a concern but Ortiz is coming back to be the every day guy. In a pinch Lowell may be the guy to fill in for him.

2. 3rd Base is fairly well set for 120-140 games. Figure 100-110 games from Lowell and 20-30 games in the Martinez – 1B/Youkilis – 3B alignment and that’s a pretty nice set up. It comes with some risk though as it is not out of the question that Lowell could get hurt and miss considerable time.

3. The rotation rocks. When you get close to something you see the flaws but the reality is that Lester and Beckett are a 1-2 punch that very few teams can match. I’ll give you Lincecum and Cain, Hamels and Lee, Wainwright and Carpenter…but after that who is better than Lester and Beckett? There are a few others (Sabathia/Burnett for example) that can be argued but nothing decisive.

After those two the Sox feature a 3rd starter in Matsuzaka who has a career ERA+ of 117. There are only 25 other pitchers with as many innings as Daisuke with an ERA+ that good in the last three years. In other words, less than one pitcher per team has been as good as Daisuke, he’s a pretty damned good 3rd starter.

The 4th starter is a promising young pitcher who could be a star and their 5th starter is league average. Kids, you can never have too much pitching, but the Sox are starting from a good spot.

4. The bullpen is similarly impressive. Even without signing anyone they would have three guys throwing 95+ at the back end.

5. Left field and shortstop need some help while catcher may be a concern.

6. Money is a bit of an issue. The Sox enter 2010 with a $113 million already spent according to USA Today's Salary Database. If the Sox are looking to go to about $130-$140 million we have about $27 million to throw around.

With those thoughts in mind, here is the official Fragile Freddy off-season blue print. Let’s start with the basics of what this team needs followed by some specific suggestions;

Need #1 – A big bat – With an opening in left field to accommodate such

Need #2 – A competent MLB shortstop

Need #3 – Solidify the bullpen – I think two relievers are necessary, ideally three

Need #4 – Starting pitching depth

The Sox MUST fulfill those four needs to claim this off-season as a successful one. Here is the plan to do just that.

1. Addressing left field is job one. For this I propose that the Red Sox sign the first one who accepts an offer of Matt Holliday, Jason Bay and Chone Figgins with Figgins being my first choice, not Bay or Holliday who I feel will command too much in terms of money and years.

Figgins is a Type B free agent meaning he will not require compensation be surrendered by the team that signs him. He is very good at getting on base and has a versatility that the Sox seem to value. He could play left or 3rd and transform the Sox offense by making them a bit more dynamic. Figgins and Ellsbury on base at the same time could be troublesome.

Adding Figgins, irrespective of left field, could provide the Sox some options. If they find that they are able to land Bay or Holliday also at a palatable price or find an undervalued but useful player (the name Adam Dunn comes to mind) they could put Figgins at third and use Lowell as a reserve.

Figgins strikes me as a guy like Damon who will be better in his 30s than he was in his 20s as he has learned to harness his talent a bit.

I like both Bay and Holliday a lot but I feel both will be too expensive. Still, landing either player will be nothing for the Sox to be afraid of. The free agent market is definitely a case of a bird in the hand being worth more than two in the bush. If the Sox can sign any of these three players, the first one to accept an offer is probably the right answer.

Figgins isn’t necessarily a “big bat” but he’s a very good bat and with his speed can be a much more impactful player by stealing bases and taking extra bases to make up for some of his power failings.

2. Find a shortstop. Look, I love Alex Gonzalez but he is a .247 hitter who does not walk and Jed Lowrie is two years into his career and has been hampered by injuries in both seasons while not performing particularly well. I’m sick of this “shortstop of the week” program the Sox have been running and I’m sick of waking up knowing that Nick Green, Chris Woodward, Royce Clayton and Gil Velazquez are part of my world.

J.J. Hardy has been on my personal radar for awhile and if the Sox can land him I like it. I would see if the Brew Crew had interest in a Manny Delcarmen (who I feel needs a change of scenery) and Jed Lowrie deal. I would also consider an option built around Lars Anderson. This would be dealing low on Anderson but the Sox need a shortstop and I’m not sold on the first base prospect.

Note: About trade proposals like this; I hate suggesting them because inevitably you sound like a jackass (hey, let’s trade Mike Lowell for Albert Pujols!). Any trade suggestions I make should be considered framework and not absolutes. I think the trades I suggest throughout this piece are good enough that while they may not get the deal done, I wouldn’t get laughed out of the room at the Owners’ Meetings either.

3. Sign Hideki Okajima. This is a bit of a no-brainer. Okajima is a key member of the bullpen with his durability and reliability and the Sox simply must bring him back.

4. Sign another reliever, preferably two. $6 million is a lot of money for a middle reliever but the Sox may be able to work a deal with Takashi Saito who pitched well in various roles. Billy Wagner probably will command more money than he would be worth to the Sox. My understanding of the rules is the Sox can sign him for no less than $8 million (20% less than his current salary) and that is too much for him.

Outside the organization Rafael Betancourt is a Type A free agent so it’s a lot to surrender a 1st rounder for a middle reliever. Save for 2008 he has been steady as a rock so if you can do a two year deal for the 35 year old it might be a good move. Fernando Rodney doesn’t throw enough strikes for my taste but if the price is right I’d explore it.

6. Sign Erik Bedard. Bedard is a talented lefty with some arm issues. The Sox have had some success keeping these types of pitchers healthy, Bedard has shown he can pitch in the AL East and 15-20 starts from a sixth starter of his ability would be a plus. I like Bedard better than other “damaged goods” options Rich Harden, Brandon Webb and Justin Duchscherer.

7. Sign Adrian Beltre to a one year plus an option deal. Beltre never lived up to the huge contract in Seattle but he did average 24 home runs a year his first four years and is a slick gloveman. He’ll be 31 next April so he is young enough to bounce back from a disappointing 2010. Beltre is probably a luxury the Sox cannot afford though.

8. Talk to the Arizona Diamondbacks about a catcher. The Sox should obviously pursue Miguel Montero but the D-Backs are not likely to be interested in dealing him but Chris Snyder is a solid defensive backstop with some power who would be a good backup.

8a. Make a decision on George Kottaras. Personally I feel he is a solid backup and the Sox would do well to keep him. If they feel he can do the job then it is time to jettison the Captain Jason Varitek and give the job to Varitek. If he cannot do the job, then I think Varitek in a part-time role could be quite good.

9. Keep Casey Kotchman. You can’t have 25 All Stars and Kotchman is a good glove man with a decent bat who I think fits in for this team. If the Sox are thrust into starting him for a few weeks I do not think they would have to be concerned.

Some other stuff;

1. Felix Hernandez and Adrian Gonzalez. Look, if the Sox can get either of these two guys they should do it at almost any cost. Understand that any deal for either player is likely to begin with “Buchholz, Casey Kelly and…” which is a massive outlay. These players are worth it, particularly the King.

2. Extend Josh Beckett. Beckett is one of the top pitchers in the game and a contract similar to the one given to Burnett is a reasonable offer. He will only be 31 in 2011 and he is 22nd in the Majors in Games Started since 2005 so durability should not be a concern.

3. The biggest pitching name on the market is that of John Lackey. If I’m the Sox I chase him with some vigor. Lackey is another guy similar to Beckett. He is not a superstar but he is definitely in that second tier group with durability and post-season success on the resume.

4. Resist the temptation to thrust too much at Daniel Bard too fast. Bard is an exciting talent who may well become the next great closer. He also could become the next Craig Hansen. While I think he will be excellent the Sox would be wise to let him grow into the role the way Mariano Rivera famously did (he became a closer in his third year) and less famously Duane Ward did with Toronto.

5. Failing an acquisition Jed Lowrie should enter the season as the starting shortstop. Give him the job but pick up Alex Gonzalez’ option as defensive replacement/insurance.

6. Extend Victor Martinez. Like Beckett, Martinez is a free man after 2010 and the Sox would do well to keep him around.

7. Do not get hung up on having a LOOGY come March 1st. The Sox were without a LOOGY once Javier Lopez lost his job and their bullpen was excellent. The Sox would do well to focus on quality pitchers regardless of which hand they throw with.

8. One name to consider – Wilson Ramos. He is a quality catcher in the Twins’ system. If the Twins, as expected, offer the world to Mauer and keep him Ramos may be available.

9. As I said in my review of the relievers; trading Jonathan Papelbon is only a good idea if it makes the Red Sox better. That seems simplistic but there are often two camps on trading a player like Papelbon. One is the “he’s too important, you can’t deal him” and one is the “he’s leaving in two years, get while the gettin’ is good.” As usual, somewhere in the middle is probably the right answer.

I may be getting a bit greedy. If the Sox do all of this (sans Beltre) you get to about $140-$145 million. With Ortiz, Lugo and Lowell all off the books after next year (approx. $34 million) and Drew ($14 million) the year after that the Sox have some flexibility coming up as players like Mauer, Pujols and Miguel Cabrera may come available.

If the Sox follow the Freddy plan they would look something like this;

1B – Youkilis/Kotchman
2B – Pedroia
SS – Hardy/Lowrie
3B – Lowell
LF – Figgins/Reddick
CF – Ellsbury
RF – Drew
C – Martinez/Kottaras
DH – Ortiz

SP – Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Buchholz, Wakefield/Bedard
RP – Papelbon, Okajima, Bard, Ramirez, Betancourt, Saito

The offense would see some bumps as Martinez would be a boost over Varitek and Hardy a boost over the shortstops. The drop from Bay to Figgins would hurt a bit but according to Runs Created Figgins was worth just 11 runs fewer than Bay and much of that would be made up on the bases.

And with all of that happening the pitching would still be among the best in the game.

This team would potentially be quite potent offensively while having the ability to play many different styles. Figgins is not a great defensive outfielder but his speed would help him and the ability to play third could come in handy. If Reddick could develop as a left fielder the Sox could be well-suited going forward while still contending for 95 wins and a playoff spot once again.

2009 Red Sox Review - Management

Well, we’ve come this far, let’s look at the management team shall we?

Coaching Staff

I’m not quite sure how to evaluate the coaching staff, as an outsider one never really knows who is doing what but I won’t let my ignorance stop me.

DeMarlo Hale still hangs too close to third base when signaling runners mid-play for my liking. No team in baseball took the extra base (by percentage) less than the Red Sox in 2009 but that is probably more of a function of the ballpark and the ability than of Hale’s coaching. The Sox had the 4th fewest runners thrown out on the bases which is a positive.

I’m not sure who was positioning the fielders but other than Ellsbury on Sunday I rarely recall thinking the Sox were mis-positioned. The Sox defense was not good but other than Green I felt they played solid fundamentally, again, they just lacked skill.

John Farrell as pitching coach deserves credit for advances taken by Jon Lester and Daniel Bard. Brad Penny’s adjustment to become a key contributor for several months also would seem a checkmark on the good side of the ledger for Farrell.

On the other hand both John Smoltz and Penny performed far better after leaving than they had with the Sox though sample sizes and a league/ballpark switch can’t be dismissed as causes.

The Red Sox did not feature a lot of real disappointing offensive seasons other than Ortiz’ and Dave Magadan should get some credit for that. The Sox were above average delivering runners from third with less than two outs suggestive of a team taking a good approach on a regular basis.

When Francona acts he often seems to act with a purpose. Some of the credit for this goes to preparation on his part but one has to acknowledge longtime bench coach Brad Mills who likely serves as sounding board/advisor on matters.

Terry Francona

I feel this was Terry Francona’s finest managerial job since 2004 and I say that as someone who thinks he has done an outstanding job on a regular basis. I feel he dealt with the Ortiz slump in the right way giving him an appropriate time to work out of it and trying some innovative ways of dealing with it (the weekend off in Seattle) before moving him down in the order.

The Sox had a couple of chances to really collapse and while they had some slumps (all teams do) they rallied well. After being swept in New York they could have gone in a shell but they had the 2nd best record in the American League the rest of the way.

Also, I felt his handling of the pitching staff was exceptional. Given a deep bullpen he balanced things out making sure no one was overused while also keeping everyone fresh. At the same time I rarely felt he made moves that set the Sox up to lose.

He was also correct in his handling of the Victor Martinez/Kevin Youkilis/Jason Varitek/Mike Lowell situation. He made sure Martinez and Youk played regularly and worked the other guys in. He also made the correct move playing Alex Gonzalez regularly at the expense of Nick Green and phased out Jason Varitek ultimately not using him in the post-season. It’s easy to sit here and say those are the right moves but a lot of managers would not have made those moves so decisively.

His efforts on September 1st against Tampa directly impacted one of the biggest victories of the season.

On the downside I felt that he was a bit trigger happy once he got into the bullpen and sometimes seemed to be searching for the one guy who did not have it on a given night.

Theo Epstein

This was an interesting year for Theo Epstein. His off-season was largely built around the pursuit of Mark Teixeira and the outcome of the season with injury to Lowell, decline of Ortiz and disappointment by Lars Anderson show that this effort was well-placed. That it came up short in no way is indicative of a failing by Epstein. I say this as neither an excuse nor a complaint but the Yankees have more money to spend and when all things are equal, they will get the player if they are desirous of him.

After that Theo got busy in small ways. Brad Penny did a solid job for the price while John Smoltz was obviously a bust. The acquisition of Ramon Ramirez for a superfluous piece was a classic example of using a surplus at one spot to fill a hole. Takashi Saito and Rocco Baldelli delivered about as well as either could have been expected to with Saito going above and beyond. Nick Green’s acquisition as depth proved key.

I wrote about it last Spring and stand by it now. Where I think Theo Epstein succeeded last off-season was in resisting the temptation to use the money unspent on Teixeira on lesser players. Once Teixeira came off the board that money was better placed in a box for a rainy day rather than on a bad contract.

And when the rainy day came Theo Epstein came through. His acquisition of Victor Martinez filled holes at both catcher and in the lineup while Alex Gonzalez and Billy Wagner proved to be shrewd acquisitions. I felt the LaRoche acquisition was a good one while dealing him for Kotchman made sense given the role that slot was going to fill. Kotchman isn’t a better player than LaRoche, but he was a better player for this team at this time.

On the flip side, Epstein failed the Sox a bit this year. He misread what Julio Lugo had left and sent the Sox into the season pretty short-handed at a crucial position. When Jed Lowrie flamed out (not entirely unexpected, rookies come with risk) the Sox were left in a lurch.

By the same token, the catching situation was not addressed and that hurt the Sox. The failure to deal Michael Bowden is in my opinion an error of player evaluation by the Red Sox. Young players have value but in a simplistic way I think it is always the right move to trade a young player because as often as Jon Lester becomes Jon Lester or Hanley Ramirez becomes Hanley Ramirez, more often does Ken Ryan become Ken Ryan, Donnie Sadler becomes Donnie Sadler and Brandon Moss becomes Brandon Moss.

The Red Sox draft was generally well regarded though only time will tell on that front.

John Henry, Tom Werner and Larry Lucchino

Once again Fenway Park was an improved facility in 2009. The changes to the lower bowl were nice though I have to confess to having been a bit under whelmed (MS Word says that’s two words, not one, who knew?). After promises of more leg room and wider seats…well, no. On the other hand the smoothed out cement and replaced panels on the seats made for a more comfortable seating environment.

The loss of Janet Marie Smith as chief architect is a bit of a blow. She has been at the heart of many ballpark projects and her work here focused on “what can be done” rather than “what cannot be done” has rejuvenated the lyric little bandbox.

From a spending standpoint (the place where the owners can really be impactful) the Sox were 4th in baseball in Opening Day payroll. They certainly opened the pocketbook for Teixeira but in the end the bidding got to be too much. While it’s convenient to argue that the Sox were outbid by just $12 million the reality is the Yankees weren’t going to watch the Sox go $1 million more and throw up their hands and say “well crud, we can’t beat that.” The Sox likely would have had to throw at least $30 million more on the table and I’m not convinced that would have been enough.

The Sox did spend some money on the draft with one website pointing out that the Sox were second among all teams behind only the Pirates in draft spending.

The decision to have the players come through the crowd on Opening Day worked great. I’m not sure how it played on TV but at the park (my section was one they came through) it was very exciting. I found the staff at Fenway, particularly at the turnstiles, to be friendlier and more efficient this year.

Tomorrow I’ll have my first pass at a plan for the Red Sox off-season plans.

Philadelphia vs. Los Angeles - NLCS Preview

If you go back to the beginning of last week you'll find my DS previews with the relevant numbers. In lieu of a full preview just some thoughts;

- The Dodgers have a higher OPS against LHP than against RHP so while Lee and Hamels are elite hurlers, it is their skill and not the hand they throw with that should cause some problems.

- In a year where almost everything went wrong Los Angeles might have been the worst of it for Brad Lidge as he blew successive saves on June 5 and 6. The Dodgers had a penchant for the dramatic with Andre Ethier playing a starring role on a frequent basis so do not go to bed early.

- Joe Torre has tabbed Vicente Padilla for the Game Two start. This is a nifty bit of managerial wizardry as he sets Padilla, a fairly pedestrian pitcher, to make both his starts in cavernous Dodger Stadium. Exposing the former Phillie who is known to be an emotional sort to a hitters' park with what would surely have been a hostile environment would have been asking a lot.

- Neither Jim Thome nor Scott Eyre will start but both will play a role in the series and Torre's objective will be to get Thome into situations where Manuel can't counter with Eyre.

- The Phillies are a great base stealing team but Russell Martin is a very good defensive backstop. This will be an important matchup as the series wears on.

- I feel it is a mistake for Torre to start Ronnie Belliard over Orlando Hudson. This is especially true in Philadelphia. I think you play against the park, good pitchers park, start sluggers, good hitters park, start defensive players. Hudson is adept enough with the bat that he will hit well in Philly and his defense will help avoid the big inning.

- Andre Ethier is an outstanding player but may be somewhat neutralized by the platoon issue. While the team is good against lefties Ethier is not.

- I'm not a huge fan of the Dodger starters. Kershaw is excellent but can be Matsuzakian with the walks and short outings, Vicente Padilla is hot but "hot" does not equal "talented" and Hiroki Kuroda has not pitched since September 28 due to a neck injury. Any of these three could be out of there early.

Matchups:

1B - Ryan Howard vs. James Loney - EDGE: Phillies
2B - Chase Utley vs. Ronnie Belliard - EDGE: Big Phillies
3B - Pedro Feliz vs. Casey Blake - EDGE: Dodgers
SS - Jimmy Rollins vs. Rafael Furcal - EDGE: Even
LF - Raul Ibanez vs. Manny Ramirez - EDGE: Big Dodgers
CF - Shane Victorino vs. Matt Kemp - EDGE: Dodgers
RF - Jayson Werth vs. Andre Ethier - EDGE: Phillies
C - Carlos Ruiz vs. Russell Martin - EDGE: Big Dodgers
SP - Hamels/Lee/Martinez/Happ vs. Kershaw/Padilla/Kuroda/Wolf - EDGE: Phillies
RP - Lidge et al vs. Broxton et al - EDGE: Dodgers
Mgr - Charlie Manuel vs. Joe Torre - EDGE: Dodgers



Prediction - Phillies in six

2009 Red Sox Review - Relief Pitchers

Infielders/DH on Monday, Outfielders and Catchers Tuesday, , Starting Pitchers earlier on Wednesday, I guess it is Relief Pitcher time.

Jonathan Papelbon – 1.85 ERA, 1.147 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9

Interesting Stat – Post All Star Break numbers – 1.86, 0.897, 10.9, 1.9

After a Matsuzakian first half Papelbon became what we expect in the second half. There was a lot of talk about some changes in mechanics that led to him saying in September that he felt better at that time of the year than ever before so it seems reasonable that the first half issues may have been caused by an adjustment to those mechanics. He remains one of the top three closers in baseball, Sunday’s failure notwithstanding.

Early 2010 Outlook – The Trade Jonathan Papelbon movement is afoot. Many are discussing it already and it is not as outlandish an idea as it may appear.

When trading there is only one question to be asked; “Does this trade make your team better?”

Theo Epstein is a smart guy and he knows this. The Sox should not be looking to dump Papelbon but if some team makes the Sox an offer that would improve them they should take it.

The fact is this is true of any player, no player is “untouchable.” You say you wouldn’t trade Jon Lester? What if the Cardinals offer Albert Pujols and Adam Wainwright? Practically that would never happen but dismissing something out of hand is a bad business model. The Sox should not enter the trading season thinking any player is untouchable, they should have a necessary value on the return in mind.

I expect Jonathan Papelbon to be the closer for the Boston Red Sox in 2010.

Ramon Ramirez – 2.84 ERA, 1.335 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 4.1 BB/9

Interesting Stat – Team best .266 BABIP. Some regression may be in order.

Ramirez was a real find for the Sox in the Coco Crisp deal. While Crisp played well before his injury he would not have had such a sizable role for the Sox while Ramirez became a trusted member of the bullpen. He also pitched significantly better on the road (.585 OPS) than at home (.840).

Early 2010 Outlook – He was less reliable in the second half but was still solid. He’s not the guy you want to be your top reliever but as a 4th reliever he is a pretty good fit.

Hideki Okajima – 3.39 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9

Interesting Stat – Allowed just 6 of 37 (16%) inherited runners to score – League Avg. 34%

Year after year Hideki Okajima does the job. He has become a steady contributor and one has to wonder if his health was the reason for Billy Wagner pitching the 8th on Sunday.

When you remove closers from the equation (anyone with 30+ saves) Okajima’s ERA+ of 173 over the last three seasons is fourth in the Majors among relievers with 150 or more innings pitched. Few hurlers are as good and dependable as the little lefty with the funny motion.

Early 2010 Outlook – My understanding is he is arbitration eligible but NOT a free agent like some Japanese players (Matsui) have been in the past. Bringing him back is essential as he is a critical member of the bullpen.

Manny Delcarmen – 4.53 ERA, 1.642 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 5.1 BB/9

Interesting Stat – Per PitchFX his average fastball in 2008 was 96 MPH, in 2009 it was 94.

What a disappointing year. Expected to be one of the key members of the ‘pen he regressed and his second half was terrible. Eventually he lost his roster spot for the post-season. I don’t know if he was hurt or what but he completely collapsed in the 2nd half, especially September.

Early 2010 Outlook – Manny may be a “change of scenery” guy. It has to be tough to play in your home town with old “friends” and family coming out of the woodwork and your buddies ribbing you a bit after a tough night when you just want to forget about it. I expect him to be back but he has some work to do to become a relied-upon member of the merry band of pirates.

Takashi Saito – 2.43 ERA, 1.347 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 4.0 BB/9

Interesting Stat – Allowed 61% of inherited runners to score

Saito was kind of the opposite of Delcarmen. With no one really sure what to expect he was treated like a porcelain doll in the first half but as time went on he became a trusted member of the bullpen. In my eyes he was a guy I felt very comfortable emerging when the door swung open.

Early 2010 Outlook – The Sox hold a $6 million option on him that everyone seems to expect will not be picked up. I’m not sure why this is the case as he was very good and seems to be in a good situation here. I hope the Sox bring him back, he adds depth to the bullpen.

Justin Masterson – 4.50 ERA, 1.347 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9

Interesting Stat – Best groundball/flyball ratio among relievers at 1.04

Masterson was good for the Sox but seemed to run into trouble at times. His control comes and goes leaving him prone to the big inning. After a strong April he posted a 5.04 ERA from May through July.

Early 2010 Outlook – N/A

Daniel Bard – 3.65 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 4.0 BB/9

Interesting Stat - .866 OPS to LHB, .545 to RHB

Whoosh. The sound of a fastball whistling by hitters became a familiar one to Fenway fans. Bard electrified fans but in fairness his numbers at the end were good but not great. Hitters caught up to him a bit and after July he had a 6.16 ERA with a 1.842 WHIP. During that time he still had an exceptional K rate of 29% which indicates his stuff was still very good.

Early 2010 Outlook – He’ll open 2010 as the primary right-handed setup man for Terry Francona. I would not automatically assume dominance yet but it would not surprise me one bit if he became a true stud coming out of the bullpen. To my untrained eye he looks like he could do with a little cutter or something to help him deal with lefties.

Billy Wagner – 1.98 ERA, 1.098 WHIP, 14.5 K/9, 4.6 BB/9

Interesting Stat – Led all MLB pitchers with more than 10 IP in K/9

The anti-Eric Gagne delivered for the Sox with his one stumble more the fault of Kevin Youkilis’ defense on Sunday than anything else. He arrived throwing strikes and overwhelming hitters and never really stopped.

Early 2010 Outlook – Expected to find a closer job (though he hinted at retirement according to Ken Rosenthal yesterday) but if he wants to return the Sox would do well to allow him to do so.

Hunter Jones – 9.24 ERA, 1.816 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 5.0 BB/9

Interesting Stat – Held lefties to a .604 OPS

Jones had a couple of impressive outings and more than a couple not-so-impressive ones.

Early 2010 Outlook – I would expect him to be in Ft. Myers trying to swing himself a LOOGY job.

Javier Lopez – 9.26 ERA, 2.486 WHIP, 3.9 K/9, 6.9 BB/9

Interesting Stat – 53% of pitches were strikes, worst on the team

It all came crashing down for Lopez this year. His control, never a strong suit to begin with went completely south and finally he too went south, via I-95.

Early 2010 Outlook – I can’t imagine he still has a role.

Fernando Cabrera – 8.44 ERA, 2.063 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, 6.8 BB/9

Interesting Stat - .467 BABIP, worst on team

Cabrera was roster filler and never really played a crucial role.

Early 2010 Outlook – His funky motion with his hands high above his head throws me. I wonder if he could become decent insurance with some mechanical adjustments, he seems to have a good slider.

Enrique Gonzalez – 4.91 ERA, 1.909 WHIP, 2.5 K/9, 4.9 BB/9

Interesting Stat - .583 OPS with Jason Varitek catching

OK, I got nothing here, sorry.

Early 2010 Outlook – Nope, still nothin'

Billy Traber – 12.27 ERA, 2.727 WHIP, 2.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9

Interesting Stat – Was third in the majors allowing all three runners he inherited to score. Only Clay Rapada of Detroit (4 for 4) and Masahide Kobayahsi of Cleveland (6 for 6) allowed more without stranding anyone.

For what it’s worth, he pitched better than the starter (Smoltz) did in his one game.

Early 2010 Outlook – A long shot at best for a LOOGY role.

Dustin Richardson - 0.00 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 0.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

Interesting Stat – Was 4th in the majors having faced 14 batters without striking anyone out.

The lanky lefty showed a little bit in his short tenure with the big club. I opined after seeing him late in the year that he needed to drop his arm angle to become an effective LOOGY but I think he might have a future.

Early 2010 Outlook – Barring an off-season acquisition I think he and Hunter Jones will be battling for the 11th pitcher role with Richardson having a slight inside track.

2009 Red Sox Review - Starting Pitchers

Infielders and DH on Monday, outfielders and catchers on Tuesday, what say we do those pesky starting pitchers today?

Josh Beckett – 17-6, 3.86, 8.4K/9, 2.3 BB/9

Interesting Stat – 64% of first pitches were strikes, best among starters

Beckett posted his third consecutive solid season while delivering a career high innings total. He hit a bit of an odd stumble in the second half but righted the ship in September. If you ever want to start a fight at the Baseball Think Factory suggest that Beckett is an “Ace” and I promise you won’t be disappointed.

I’m not sure if I’d term him an “Ace” but in the last three years he is 13th among all pitchers in ERA+ (min. 486 IP) and 21st in innings pitched. Of the 20 pitchers with more innings than him only seven have a better ERA+. I think it is fair to say that combination puts him in the top 15 of all pitchers at least and whatever label you give him that’s a pretty darned good pitcher.

Early 2010 Outlook – Despite the reputation for lack of health Beckett has not made less than 25 starts since 2002 (post-season included) and has hurled 200+ innings in three of his four seasons with the Red Sox. I expect more of the same in 2010 with a season similar to the one just past.

I also believe that his durability and talent make him worth an extension and that the Sox will make that happen.

Jon Lester – 15-8, 3.41, 10.0, 2.8

Interesting Stat – K rate increased to 26.4% from a career mark of 17.3%

It got lost in a bit of an odd, BABIP-driven start but Jon Lester went from good young pitcher to stud. Lester was very good in 2008 but he made tremendous strides in 2009 with the great leap in strikeouts while not walking more hitters.

He still works behind in the count a bit more than league average which is not good but he is nothing short of a true star.

Early 2010 Outlook – Jon Lester is one of the best pitchers in baseball and will continue to be such.

Brad Penny – 7-8, 5.61, 6.1, 2.9

Interesting Stat – From May 3rd to the All Star Break he went 4-3 with a 3.79 ERA

Penny’s year was an odd one. He started out looking pretty helpless getting knocked around pretty hard in his first four starts before settling in for a solid stretch of thirteen starts where he really gave the Sox a boost while they sorted things out.

I felt the Sox erred when they let him walk in late-August but they still comfortably made the playoffs and he would not have had a post-season role in any case.

Early 2010 Outlook – N/A

Tim Wakefield – 11-5, 4.58, 5.0, 3.5

Interesting Stat – 3.53 Pitches/PA was lowest on the team

He got there in a bit of a different path than usual but in the end, it was the typical Tim Wakefield season. Double digit wins, ERA+ slightly better than league average, it was Tim Wakefield.

There were some disturbing signs. His WHIP of 1.442 was his worst since 2000 and obviously the injury issue was a major concern. Just watching him during the pregame introductions on Sunday he was moving like an old man.

Early 2010 Outlook – For the first time in many years I do not feel comfortable saying that Tim Wakefield will be productive and useful for the Boston Red Sox. Supposedly he is planning off-season surgery that will straighten him out but he is going to be 44 next August. He’ll be back, but what he has to give is in question.

Clay Buchholz – 7-4, 4.21, 6.7, 3.5

Interesting Stat – 53.8% of batted balls against him were ground balls, 4th in the AL (min. 90 IP)

Buchholz had to wait patiently for his chance and when it came…he went “thunk.” While he had a 3.52 ERA in his first three starts his 1.76 WHIP was troubling. In his fourth start he got hammered by Baltimore and many were questioning if the Sox had blundered in not dealing him at the deadline.

So what’d he do? He turned things around. In his next ten starts he had a 2.37 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP before stumbling in his final two starts. If there was cause for concern it was a low K rate but his ground ball rate should help offset that.

Early 2010 Outlook – How is it possible that after all this time we still don’t know what the Boston Red Sox have here? I feel closer to an answer but there is still a lot of variance possible. Buchholz could become an Ace and he could be a 3rd starter. I am fairly confident that he won’t be a bust but anything is possible.

It would not surprise me if he were dealt this off-season as the Sox look to make a splash.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – 4-6, 5.76, 8.2, 4.6

Interesting Stat - .382 BABIP

After a sterling but somewhat fortunate 2008 some regression was forecast for Matsuzaka. What happened was not forecasted as Matsuzaka was horrendous in every sense of the word for his first eight starts. After effectively redoing Spring Training in July and August his final four starts were exemplary, 3-1, 2.22.

Early 2010 Outlook – In 2007 Daisuke was a fairly typical rookie with flashes of brilliance. In 2008 Daisuke had a tremendous season. It was par for the course to suggest that Matsuzaka wasn’t really that good in 2008 but that is unfair, he was excellent. From a predictive standpoint his 2008 season left a lot to be desired but the results for that season were excellent.

2009 was quite the opposite. From a predictive standpoint a lot of good exists but the results were undeniably awful. I joked recently that if you took the 2.90 ERA of 2008 and the 5.76 ERA of 2009 and just added them and divided by two you would get a 4.33 ERA and that would be a decent prediction for 2010.

I was joking but I think that might be a fairly accurate forecast.

John Smoltz – 2-5, 8.32, 7.4, 2.0

Interesting Stat – 66% of pitches were strikes, best on team

Smoltz got destroyed on a pretty regular basis. I kind of wonder if maybe he hadn’t had that start in Baltimore washed out (the night the Sox blew the 10-1 lead) if things might have turned out a bit different for him here.


It was a good gamble, it did not work.

Early 2010 Outlook – N/A

Paul Byrd – 1-3, 5.82, 2.9, 2.9

Interesting Stat – 16% line drive rate allowed (league average 19%)

Byrd pitched alright for the Sox with a couple of tough starts and a couple of solid starts.

Early 2010 Outlook – If he is interested in being available for a similar role in 2010 I’d keep him, well, if not on speed dial I’d at least have his page in the phone book marked with one of those sticky notes.

Junichi Tazawa – 2-3, 7.46, 4.6, 3.2

Interesting Stat – 1.291 OPS by RHB against him, .770 by LHB

Tazawa showed the poise predicted of him but his stuff did not look MLB ready. His best start, against the Yankees, was rife with good fortune.

Early 2010 Outlook – Tazawa showed some good signs, whether his stuff will be of Major League caliber is a question mark. He looks like he could use another year in the minors.

Michael Bowden – 1-1, 9.56, 6.8, 3.4

Interesting Stat – Allowed all nine runners at third with less than two outs to score

Bowden shone in the first couple of months at Pawtucket but drifted off a bit as the season progressed. His time with the big club was generally good with a couple of truly horrific outings.

Early 2010 Outlook – The Sox have missed the boat on Bowden. There is really no reason for him to still be on the roster. I wrote in March that “if the Sox could have traded him this off-season for Montero I believe they should have” and stand by that substituting most names for “Montero” (Miguel Montero, Arizona catcher).


Bowden does not appear to have the stuff or the control at the big league level to be successful and should be moved.

2009 Red Sox Review - Outfielders and Catchers

Infielders and the DH yesterday, outfielders and catchers today;

Jason Bay - .267/.384/.537

Interesting Stat – 48% of his hits were for extra bases, the highest rate of his career

Bay’s season was a great one. While he did not hit for a particularly high average his ability to draw the base on balls was pivotal in making for a great season. Despite having what seems to be a perfect Fenway swing his splits show a guy equally effective on the road as at home.

Defensively Bay is poor. Despite having fifteen assists his arm is weak and he has limited range.

Early 2010 Outlook – This is the question isn’t it? I think if he’s willing to accept a three year deal it’s a no-brainer to re-sign him at almost any price. If he insists on a five year deal I think it’s almost equally as certain a no-brainer to let him go. I don't know where I read it but I liked the idea of the Sox making the same offer to both him and Holliday and simply signing whichever one sends back the contract first.

Jacoby Ellsbury - .301/.355/.415

Interesting Stat – 3.77 Pitches/PA, league average 3.83

This was a strong year for Ellsbury. He improved his walk rate over past years a bit and most interestingly improved his walk rate in the 2nd half over the 1st half indicating some growth as a hitter. His speed was game-changing and while he improved his stolen base total by 20 over 2008 he was caught just one additional time.

On the defensive side he rates surprisingly lowly. What I see is a guy who has tremendous physical gifts but has yet to truly learn to read the ball off the bat and I expect him to improve in that regard.

Early 2010 Outlook – I think he needs to keep that walk and P/PA rate moving in an upward trajectory. He will never have a lot of power so he is dependent on his ability to reach base.

J.D. Drew - .279/.392/.522

Interesting Stat - .272/.381/.482 vs. LHP

I can’t stress enough what a great year I think J.D. Drew had. He was absolutely fantastic with a steady performance highlighted by a terrific final third of the season. On the defensive side of the ball I thought he made great strides covering more ground and his throwing, always a strong suit, seemed more accurate this year.

Early 2010 Outlook – J.D. Drew is J.D. Drew. He is going to produce the way he always has, play solid defense and have to miss some time here and there due to one injury or another. When he is on the field he is a top notch right fielder.

Rocco Baldelli - .253/.311/.433

Interesting Stat – .357/.438/.500 line as a pinch hitter

The Woonsocket Rocket started his Red Sox’ career in a strong fashion but he faded mightily in the second half. He was at his best coming off the bench (.980 OPS) while struggling (.687 OPS) as a starter. He didn’t seem as dynamic a defensive player as I remember him in Tampa.

Early 2010 Outlook – Baldelli hit lefties pretty well (.784 OPS) and is versatile enough to play all three outfield positions. On a club with at least two left-handed hitting outfielders this is a pretty valuable guy.

Josh Reddick - .169/.210/.339

Interesting Stat - .641 OPS as a starter

Reddick looked overmatched by MLB pitching particularly as time went on as he went 3 for his final 25 at bats. Just 22 years old he showed flashes but he’s not there yet.

Early 2010 Outlook – Reddick’s future is hard to figure. On the one hand he is a pretty exciting talent but on the other hand he is appealing in a trade scenario and if the Sox are going to make a move this off-season he is a guy likely to be packing his bags.

Brian Anderson - .294/.381/.647

Interesting Stat – Drove in 100% of runners from 3rd with less than two outs (2 for 2)

Anderson’s time with the Sox was short and uneventful. He is a strong defender who runs reasonably well though he is not a stolen base guy.

Early 2010 Outlook – I’d guess he’s on his way out though if he’s willing to stick around and spend some time in Pawtucket he would be a good guy as insurance.

Joey Gathright - .313/.353/.313

Interesting Stat - .500/.600/.500 with two outs in an inning

Gathright’s contribution to the Sox came mostly as a pinch runner on Sunday afternoon.

Early 2010 Outlook – Like Anderson, Gathright is a guy who might provide some use as an insurance policy or willing to hang out until September in hopes of participating as a post-season player.

Jonathan Van Every - .364/.462/.636

Interesting Stat – The Sox were 5-2 in games he played in

Van Every had one truly spectacular game in Cleveland and another in Boston against Cleveland.

Early 2010 Outlook - Depending on his health Van Every may get a chance to help out in a similar fashion in 2010.

Chris Carter - .000/.000/.000

Interesting Stat – He had one RBI giving him an RBI to hit ratio of ∞

Carter had a brief chance to make an impact and was unable to do so. He was later dealt to the Mets in the Billy Wagner trade.

Early 2010 Outlook – N/A

Jason Varitek - .209/.313/.390

Interesting Stat - .240/.343/.490 in his first sixty games

Varitek’s decline continued in 2009. He still hit lefties well (.807 OPS) and his performance in those first sixty games lend me to believe that he could help the team in a backup role.

Early 2010 Outlook – I can’t imagine the Sox will pick up their piece of the option so whether or not he chooses to pick up his piece of the option is the question. At $3 million he would not be so expensive as to be unable to be released if the Sox feel they have a better option.

Victor Martinez - .336/.405/.507

Interesting Stat – The Sox scored 5.1 runs/game before his acquisition, 5.8/game afterwards

What a terrific acquisition he turned out to be. His booming bat, his discipline at the plate combined with his seeming invincibility in the clutch (.440/.517/.720 in Late & Close situations) made him a fan favorite.

While the Sox lack that superstar bat they once had they were the only team in baseball with four players posting a .900+ OPS (Martinez, Bay, Youkilis, Drew).

Early 2010 Outlook – Peter Abraham of Extra Bases has the story right from Theo’s mouth;

“Victor Martinez is the catcher, period. As Epstein said, that was the expectation when they traded for him. "He's about as good as it gets,"

OK then. I still expect the Sox to use him a bit less than a true every day catcher though. Maybe 110 or so starts there with some time at 1st to spell Lowell and keep Martinez fresh.

George Kottaras – .237/.308/.387

Interesting Stat - .263/.326/.434 after April

After a bit of a rough start Kottaras became a solid backup backstop (say that three times fast). He may still grow into being a starter but he is surely good enough to be a backup and I thought he looked adept on defense.

Early 2010 Outlook – He is heavily tied to Varitek’s future. If ‘Tek returns, Kottaras will go elsewhere, if ‘Tek does not return, Kottaras is the likely backup.

Dusty Brown - .333/.500/1.333

Interesting Stat – Led all Red Sox pitchers in strike percentage

Brown had a forgettable year at Pawtucket and looks caught in the middle. I’ve liked him for awhile but with Kottaras in front of him and some quality guys behind him it is hard to envision a place for him in Boston.

Early 2010 Outlook – He would be a nice insurance policy but with Wagner already at Pawtucket and Exposito coming behind him Brown’s best bet for 2010 may involve being a part-time player at Pawtucket.

Philadelphia vs. Colorado

The Phillies rounded out the two LCS matchups with a thrilling come from behind victory over the Rockies in Denver last night. The game was a terrific pitchers’ duel with Cliff Lee of Philadelphia outpacing Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez and the game entered its final two innings with the Phils clinging to a 2-1 lead.

Things got funky from there. In the top of the 8th the Phillies loaded the bases with one out and sent Pedro Feliz to the plate. Feliz is a free swinger with a low OBP and can be frustrating but he’s not a bad guy in that situation. Because he swings so liberally he rarely strikes out and he led the Phillies in getting runs in from third with less than two outs.

Unfortunately he popped out and a subsequent pop up kept the game at just 2-1. Lee started the bottom of the 8th and that was the right decision in my book. A one out walk put him on the hook but then on Helton’s grounder Utley’s throw was not handled by Rollins, 1st and 2nd, one out and exit Lee, enter Ryan Madson.

Madson got a fly ball for the second out and Giambi pinch hit. Charlie Manuel elected to stick with Madson in lieu of Scott Eyre. I suppose the concern there was that Manuel would summons Iannetta to pinch hit for Giambi but I would much prefer Eyre vs. Iannetta than Madson vs. Giambi. Much as we all love the local kid Iannetta I think that’s a no-brainer. Sure enough, Giambi singled to tie the game and Yorvit Torrealba’s ensuing double gave the Rox a 4-2 lead headed to the ninth.

For the second straight day a road team staged an exciting comeback in the ninth. With two out and Victorino on first the Rockies were in good shape but Street walked Utley to bring Howard to the plate and it was decision time for Jim Tracy.

Ryan Howard is a prodigious power hitter but he does not hit lefties well at all. He had a .653 OPS against southpaws this year and while Huston Street handles lefties well I don’t know what Joe Beimel is doing on the roster if not for this moment right here. Jim Tracy made the move every other manager in baseball would have made but they are all wrong. If this had been any inning OTHER than the ninth, Beimel would have faced Howard. Instead Howard (1.086 OPS vs. RHP) faced Street and doubled to tie the game.

Tracy was not done hurting his team. With Jayson Werth coming up and first base open he elected to pitch to him.

With the pitcher’s spot on deck.

Yes, the Phils would have pinch hit and they likely would have sent Stairs to the plate but again you can counter with Beimel and now you are either facing Stairs with Beimel or the Phils lift Stairs for Miguel Cairo.

This is the bigger blunder in my book. Tracy stuck to the convention of the era in sticking with Street vs. Howard, to hammer him for that is a bit unfair. To let a hitter as good as Werth (.806 vs. RHP this year) face Street with a base open is the wrong move. Werth’s single put the Phillies on top.

In the bottom of the ninth Philadelphia skipper Charlie Manuel was unencumbered by convention due to Lidge’s struggles. He went to his southpaw Eyre and Eyre made things a bit hairy allowing two hits around two outs and putting the winning run on base. Lidge came on to get the save by striking out Tulowitzki to end it.

So the matchups are set, starting Friday we will see the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim against the New York Yankees and starting Saturday the battle will be the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers. Dreams of a Freeway Series remain intact.
*****************************************************************************
One can argue that Terry Francona faced a similar situation to Jim Tracy when letting Papelbon face Abreu on Sunday. To me there are two major differences;

1. Papelbon is simply a far superior pitcher to Huston Street. Nothing against Street who is a fine hurler in his own right but Papelbon is clearly a better pitcher.
2. Abreu has a very small platoon differential. His .735 OPS against lefties this year is fine and his career mark of .772 is very good. As recently as 2008 he hit lefties better than righties.

2009 Red Sox Review - Infielders/DH

So let’s get to it. While there is still baseball to be played the Red Sox ain’t playin’ it so let’s review the season. Today we start with the infielders and DH. I’m dispensing with grades this year because there is no useful way to do it.

The stats given with each player are the traditional slash stats, Avg./OBP/Slg and in the case of players who played with other clubs just the Red Sox stats are given.

1B/3B – Kevin Youkilis - .305/.413/.548

Interesting Stat - .381 batting average with two outs and a runner in scoring position

Youkilis posted his second great season in a row firmly establishing himself as an elite hitter. While there has been some talk that the Sox lack a truly great hitter Kevin Youkilis has the third best OPS in baseball the last two seasons eclipsed only by Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez.

That he has accomplished this while providing Gold Glove caliber defense at two different positions is what makes him valuable beyond his numbers.

Early 2010 Outlook - He is not going to the Hall of Fame but he has played at a Hall of Fame level the last two years and should be expected to do so again in 2010.

1B – Casey Kotchman - .218/.284/.287

Interesting Stat - .275/.350/.410 vs. RHP

Kotchman was a bit of a disappointment for the Sox as his experience playing on a sporadic basis resulted in sub-par numbers. His defense was still very good as he completed the season as just the third 1st baseman with a 1.000 fielding percentage with over 100 games played according to the Fenway scoreboard on Sunday (Garvey – 1984, Youkilis – 2007 were the others.

Early 2010 Outlook – I’d be a bit surprised if the Sox offered him arbitration. With Martinez/Youkilis able to man first base I would expect the Sox to look to fill that backup corner role with more of a potent bat.

1B – Jeff Bailey - .208/.330/.416

Interesting Stat - .400/.500/.720 vs. LHP

Bailey wasn’t able to seize his opportunity to move past the rap of “AAAA player” but that line (in 30 at bats) against lefties has to get someone’s attention.

Early 2010 Outlook – A nice guy to have around as insurance, I would imagine he’ll move on though.

1B – Mark Kotsay - .257/.291/.324

Interesting Stat - .500/.500/.583 in 3rd appearance vs. a starting pitcher

Kotsay was superfluous with the Sox depth this year as he seemed to have lost a step in the outfield.

Early 2010 Outlook – N/A

1B – Adam LaRoche - .263/.263/.526

Interesting Stat – Has played every game of his Red Sox career in Fenway Park.

LaRoche’s time here was brief and then he went on to pound away for the Braves. I still think the LaRoche/Kotchman switch was the move to make though as Kotchman’s glove added value that exceeded anything LaRoche would have done. LaRoche would not have gotten appreciably more playing time than Kotchman and the Sox were better off with Kotchman.

Early 2010 Outlook – N/A

1B – Aaron Bates - .364/.417/.545

Interesting Stat – Made his Major League debut on July 6th versus Oakland

Bates made a solid showing in a brief appearance in the bigs before injury slowed him down.

Early 2010 Outlook – Pending his health, he has a shot to contribute in some way.

2B – Dustin Pedroia - .296/.371/.447

Interesting Stat – Had a below average rate of productive outs (28% vs. league average of 32%)

Pedroia’s season was not the dream year of 2009 but it was still an excellent season. Pedroia’s defense continues to be steady and he has replaced Mike Lowell as the winner of the Player Fragile Freddy Most Wants the Ball Hit To in a Key Spot Award™.

Offensively Pedroia what looks to be shaping up as a standard Pedroia season. A solid batting average boosted by an acceptable and improved walk rate, gobs of doubles and enough home run power to be exciting. His stolen base percentage dropped this year though he still rates as a good base runner.

Early 2010 Outlook – No real reason to expect anything radically different from the last three years.

3B – Mike Lowell - .290/.337/.474

Interesting Stat - .322/.369/.483 line when playing the day after a day off, .278/.325/.471 when playing on a consecutive day

Lowell gutted out a tough season. Drastically slowed by his hip injury of 2008 Lowell’s performance was strong when he was on the field but he was forced out of the lineup somewhat regularly. Still, 111 games at that level of performance is nothing to dismiss.

Defensively he is a shell of what he was. While he still possesses the soft hands, accurate arm and lightning quick reflexes his range is virtually non-existent. If the ball is more than a step or two away he is likely to be unable to make the play.

Early 2010 Outlook – His final season with the Sox is likely to be one spent in a role similar to the one he played after the Martinez trade. An off-season deal for a big bat or a regular catcher will make him more of a luxury item.

SS – Nick Green - .236/.303/.366

Interesting Stat - .293/.345/.459 line from the time he inherited the starting role on April 12th through his walk-off home run against Atlanta on June 21st.

When you look at the way the season played out it is hard to envision how the season would have been successful without Green’s first half contributions. He made some defensive misplays that cost the club from time to time but overall he really saved the team for awhile.

Early 2010 Outlook – He’ll likely get an offer to go elsewhere in a utility role as the Sox presumably will go with Lowrie/Gonzalez at the shortstop/utility infielder spots. I imagine if he’s willing to go to Spring Training as the third man on that list he’ll have a job but I would expect some club to invite him with a promise of more playing time.

SS – Alex Gonzalez - .284/.316/.453

Interesting Stat - .306/.351/.569 at Fenway Park

With Nick Green having reverted to pumpkin status Gonzalez came in and did yeoman work. His defense showed little evidence of the rumored loss of range while his bat appreciated the return to Fenway.

Early 2010 Outlook – I would expect the Sox to pick up his $6 million option while hoping for Lowrie to be the starter with Gonzalez acting as a useful insurance policy/defensive replacement.

SS – Julio Lugo - .284/.352/.367

Interesting Stat – Worst UZR of any shortstop in baseball

Lugo’s bat was fine but his defensive ability went out the window. Never the most sure handed guy in the world he also appeared to have lost a ton of range and the Sox cut ties with the former big money free agent signing.

At this point he is probably the biggest mistake of Theo Epstein’s tenure.

Early 2010 Outlook – N/A

SS – Jed Lowrie - .147/.211/.265

Interesting Stat – BB rate decreased to 7.9%, below league average

What a disaster. Let’s see;

Play horribly? Check
Get serious injury? Check
Possibly lose your job? Check

Not much could have gone worse for Lowrie in 2009. At this point it is a bit unfair to evaluate him on his limited performances this season but combining his injury this year, the injury last year that limited him and his poor performance since mid-August last year I think relying on him as the answer to any question is a mistake.

Early 2010 Outlook – I think the Sox will hand him the job again in 2010 but with Gonzalez as insurance. I also would expect the Sox to pursue shortstop options beyond those two through the off-season.

SS – Chris Woodward - .083/.313/.083

Interesting Stat – The Sox were 0-2 in games started by Woodward

Woodward was roster filler. His one significant act was his failure to get a bunt down in the Clay Buchholz – Pinch Runner game in Texas. By the way, how did I forget to include that in my top ten list of games played this year?

Early 2010 Outlook – Someone somewhere will pay him to play baseball, maybe even the PawSox.

SS – Gil Velazquez - .000/.333/.000

Interesting Stat – Walked in 33% of his at bats in 2009

Another roster filler guy, he seems to be well-liked by the organization.

Early 2010 Outlook – Seems like he’s settling in as that “uh oh” guy who plays a couple of games every year before becoming Spring Training Coach for Life.

DH – David Ortiz - .238/.332/.462

Interesting Stat – Led the AL in homers from May 20th (the day of his first) through the end of the season.

It was quite the year for Ortiz. It started with tremendous struggles, saw controversy in the form of alleged steroid usage and featured a strong run of performance. His .250/.337/.517 line from May 20th on is probably more representative of his ability at this point.

Early 2010 Outlook – He has started slowly the last two years before breaking out so that will probably continue. One of these days that slow start is just going to mean he’s done but I do not think he’s there yet. I would expect a continuation of the job sharing situation where he and Lowell and the backup catcher split time among themselves while Martinez and Youkilis play virtually every day.

Ten and Five

Today we begin our look back at the 2009 season. The Sox had some good and some bad things happen. I want to start with just an informal listing; ten positives and five negatives that occurred this year. Why twice as many positives? If you are asking that you haven’t been reading Freddy very long.

Ten Positives

1. The continued growth and dominance of Jon Lester.

2. Clay Buchholz bouncing back from a horrific 2008 to put himself back on the map as a key contributor for years to come.

3. The emergence of Daniel Bard.

4. The flexibility of Terry Francona’s brain as he made the move away from Jason Varitek at catcher and mixed and matched rather adeptly among his corner infield positions.

5. David Ortiz’ ability to overcome the nightmarish first two months of the season.

6. Jacoby Ellsbury’s step forward from curiosity to legitimate leadoff hitter and game changer.

7. The dedication demonstrated by Daisuke Matsuzaka to return himself to game shape and contribute to the final three weeks of the season renewing optimism for 2010.

8. J.D. Drew’s marvelous all around season that blended top notch offense with an improved defensive performance.

9. Nick Green’s great effort in May and June when he really saved this team’s bacon.

10. The “old guard” guys continuing to shine. Beckett, Pedroia, Youkilis, Papelbon and Okajima continued to provide a core of talent around which the Sox can build.

Five Negatives

1. The continued decline of the heart and soul of two world championships; Jason Varitek.

2. John Smoltz’ inability to perform at anything approaching a tolerable level.

3. The lost year of Jed Lowrie.

4. The disappointing season of heavily hyped prospect Lars Anderson, a decline that will have further repercussions for this organization moving forward.

5. The declining health of Tim Wakefield who even yesterday during introductions was visibly struggling just to jog to the first base line.

AL Division Series Game Three Recap

LAA – 000 101 023 – 7 – 11 – 0
BOS – 003 200 010 – 6 – 7 – 1

LAA: Kazmir, Bulger (7), Jepsen (8), Oliver (8), Fuentes (9) and Napoli, Mathis (9)
BOS: Buchholz, Bard (6), Wagner (8), Papelbon (8), Okajima (9) and Martinez

Angels win series three games to none (5-0, 4-1, 7-6)

Another exciting season of Boston Red Sox baseball came to an end on Sunday October 11 at 3:58 PM. There were many terrific things that happened this year and some not so terrific things and in the end the 95 win, Wild Card winners came up short against a strong and deserving Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim team.

The game on Sunday was a terrific ball game. The first time through the order the Sox could not handle Scott Kazmir but they were patient and got him to throw 40 pitches. The patience paid off as the second time through they hit him hard going 5 for 9 and plating five runs.

The score was still 5-1 entering the 6th when Clay Buchholz loaded the bases on two hits and a walk and was lifted. Terry Francona made the right move at the right time tabbing 24 year old Daniel Bard for the most important performance of his young career.

Bard was dominant. He fell behind Rivera 3-1 but battled back and disintegrated Rivera’s bat to get a 5-4-3 double play. He then got Izturis to pop to left to end the inning before working a 1-2-3 7th. The performance was sensational and the Sox went to the 8th with a fairly comfortable 5-2 lead. The next twelve hitters ended the Red Sox’ season.

Against Billy Wagner Abreu started things in the 8th with a bouncer down the first base line that I thought Youkilis played into a tough hop. It seemed like a ball that should have been handled but it was not and it went into the camera well and was ruled a double.

Wagner then fanned Torii Hunter and walked Guerrero to bring the tying run in Morales to the plate. I felt with five outs needed that Francona should have gone to Papelbon right there but he stuck with Wagner who got a ground ball to Pedroia that maybe could have been two had Pedroia played it cleanly. He did not and so there were two on and two out and Papelbon was summonsed.

All year long Jonathan Papelbon had played with fire. This was particularly true in the first half but even in the second half his lack of a secondary pitch left him a bit crippled and predictable. If you keep putting people on eventually you are going to get bitten on the backside.

Rivera greeted him with a two run single and while Paps picked off the pinch runner Willits it was a 5-4 game. In the bottom of the 8th David Ortiz delivered a two out single and Joey Gathright pinch ran. I don’t normally like the pinch runner there but if you are going to do it, having him steal is the right move. The steal was successful and a moment later he was running across home plate with an insurance run on a Lowell single.

The 9th inning commenced in perfect fashion with a foul out and a fly out bringing up Aybar trying to keep the game alive. Papelbon got Aybar 0-2 but Aybar stroked a solid single to center.

Figgins was next and Papelbon’s control failed him as he went 3-0 on Figgins. I know it’s not always easy to just lay the ball in there but Figgins homers less than once every 100 at bats. Papelbon can NOT walk the tie run there and that’s what he did. Abreu then doubled off the wall and while Bay wildly overthrew the cutoff man Figgins was not able to score.

Which brings us to the move that will likely be analyzed by many; the intentional pass of Torii Hunter to bring Vladimir Guerrero to the plate. I liked the move.

Vladimir Guerrero – The Player, is no longer Vladimir Guerrero – The Name Brand. For comparisons sake I present the following 2009 numbers;

Guerrero - .295/.334/.460
Ortiz - .238/.332/.462

Hunter - .299/.366/.508
Martinez - .303/.381/.480

The point being that this is the equivalent of seeing Victor Martinez walked for David Ortiz. That move would surprise none of us were it made and without question walking Hunter for Guerrero was the right move. Guerrero did not hit the ball hard but his floater landed in center field for a two run hit.

If any mistake was made it was made by whoever controls the Red Sox’ outfield defense. Inexplicably Ellsbury was still in the “no doubles” defense playing closer to Jillian’s than home plate. In that situation not only should he be playing his normal depth but a step or two closer since a single is just as bad an extra base hit.

C’est la vie. In the end the Sox were beaten by a superior team and all credit to the Angels for that. Congratulations to them they are a deserving LCS participant. They are a deep and talented team that should provide a strong opponent for the Yankees in the ALCS once the Bombers dispatch the Twins.

Some other thoughts;

- Scott Kazmir looked very different to me. His motion was not the maximum effort, full throttle display I remember with Tampa Bay. He was much more controlled sacrificing some MPH for command it seems.

- In the 9th with men on 1st and 2nd Alex Gonzalez was dancing with Aybar at second and Papelbon at one point wheeled and looked at second. There was no reason for Gonzalez to do this, it was distracting to Papelbon and took him out of position. Papelbon simply had to retire Abreu to end the game and focusing on anything other than that was unnecessary.

- On the subject of Papelbon he has to either rediscover the splitter or make the slider a more viable option. Aybar, Figgins and Abreu all had two strikes but he was unable to put them away.

- I eyeballed this so I may have missed one but Sunday afternoon was the first time since October 2, 2005 that Jonathan Papelbon had been lifted mid-inning as a reliever (not counting the game he was injured in 2006).

- Daisuke Matsuzaka was doing anything he could to keep himself loose and ready to enter the game on short notice. He was casually tossing in the bullpen in the 1st and 2nd innings and a few times he came out between innings to act as a warmup partner to J.D. Drew.

- A contingent of Angel fans gathered near the Angel clubhouse after the game hooting and hollering and were rewarded as a few of the players came out to greet them one by one. I heard some of it and saw Erick Aybar jubilantly come out and wave his arms to the screaming fans. It was a nice scene.

Good: Congratulations and thank you to the 2009 Boston Red Sox. 95 wins and a playoff berth is nothing to be ashamed of and while they came up short of the ultimate goal they should wake up tomorrow morning to look back proudly at what they accomplished this year.

Bad: The end of another Red Sox season. What am I supposed to do for 176 days?*

Ugly: Jonathan Papelbon’s final appearance of the season certainly deserves the tab of “ugly.”

* - What am I supposed to do? Well, I’ve got some plans. This week I will begin looking back at 2009 with a look at every player who suited up for the Red Sox and then I will have some thoughts on what the Sox need to do to prepare for 2010.

During that time I will also have notes about the still on-going post-season games and series. In November I will take some time to do a review of all thirty teams in something I’m lamely calling “Freddy’s Two-a-Days.”

The point is if you’ve rediscovered me this year I’m glad to have you back and if you are new to Freddy well, welcome. I like to think I provide some interesting news during the off-season and will try to still have my six day a week posting schedule.

AL Division Series Game Three Preview

Time: 12:07 PM

Park: Fenway Park

Pitchers: Clay Buchholz (7-4, 4.21 regular season) vs. Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.89 regular season)

Stat of the Day: The Red Sox were 56-25 in home games, the second best record in baseball.

Thoughts: The Sox are up against it as October 11th dawns. The good news for the Sox is that they return to a place where their OPS jumps from .753 to .862. After two tough games in Anaheim if the Sox can get the offense going there is no reason they cannot win the next two nights.

I do not know what to expect from Clay Buchholz. He seems to pitch better when things seem to be not going so well. In games against Baltimore and Chicago where he was gifted big leads and the two meaningless games at the end of the year saw him pitch poorly. On the other hand, when his future was in doubt he rose up and pitched well.

The flip side to that is that he is a guy who has had issues with base runners and the Angels can cause problems for the most experienced of pictures.

The Sox just have to go back to the 2004 mindset of “win today.”
*****************************************************
St. Louis – Los Angeles

The Los Angeles Dodgers punched a ticket to their second consecutive LCS in impressive fashion. Former Red Sox hurler Joel Pineiro took the hill for the Cadinals but he did not have it on this night.

- Andre Ethier continues to be a star for the Dodgers. He had three extra base hits missing just the single in his quest to hit for the cycle.

- Vicente Padilla pitched excellently for Los Angeles. With the Dodgers needing to go to the enigmatic Padilla due to injury Joe Torre was rewarded with the great effort.

- Yadier Molina made a grotesque base running blunder in the 7th. With one out Molina was standing on second base when De Rosa grounded to short. Molina inexplicably broke for third base and was thrown out by quite a bit.

For all the talk the blunder was fairly meaningless. That late in the game the Cardinals needed a big inning. The difference between the result of the play (man on first, two outs) or the result had Molina stayed at home (man on second, two outs – it was a routine ground ball) was fairly minimal.

Because of this while Molina’s play was stupid you can argue that Furcal could have just gone to first and avoided any risk. Molina is so slow and was already committed to third base though so there was virtually no risk in Furcal going to third.

AL Division Series Game Two Recap

BOS – 000 100 000 – 1 – 4 – 0
LAA – 000 100 30x – 4 – 6 – 0

BOS: Beckett, Wagner (7), Papelbon (8) and Martinez
LAA: Weaver, Oliver (8), Jepsen (8), Fuentes (9) and Napoli

Angels lead series two games to none (5-0, 4-1)

For 6 2/3 innings we got a terrific pitchers’ duel with Jered Weaver and Josh Beckett battling away. Weaver was a bit better than Beckett even just through the first six but not appreciably so.

While Beckett was very good his curveball was not, it was flat all night and really wasn’t part of the solution. Throwing it to Izturis was a poor decision and resulted in the go-ahead single. Still, even after the Izturis hit gave the Angels the lead in the 7th he looked comfortable against Napoli when again he made a poor decision and threw a curve. This one hit Napoli.

Look, the rule about hitters needing to make an attempt to get out of the way just needs to be wiped off the books. It is just never called and is pointless. There is a case to be made that Napoli actually stuck his shoulder in the way of the pitch (though that would have been a harsh decision given the lack of clarity) but he surely made no effort to avoid the pitch. The bad pitch to Aybar put the game away.

I don’t think you can quibble with leaving Beckett in. I thought he was pitching alright despite a couple of hard hit balls and the plate appearance by Napoli showed a pitcher still looking good, he just made a bad pitch to Aybar.

The difference in this series really comes down to two at bats, the homer by Hunter in Game One and the triple by Aybar in Game Two. Sox pitching has permitted just 13 hits in two games which is quite good against a team like the Angels but the Halos are getting the big blows that the Sox are not. If that does not change Sunday afternoon, your Fragile Freddy off-season extravaganza will be in full effect.

- Jered Weaver was truly brilliant. For the second straight night the Angels got 7 1/3 innings of great baseball from their starting pitcher. The Sox could do nothing with Weaver leaving themselves in a big hole as they return home.

- I liked Mike Scoscia’s decision to pinch run Howie Kendrick for Vladimir Guerrero in the 7th. At this stage of their careers Vladimir Guerrero (.295/.334/.460 in 2009) and Howie Kendrick (.291/.334/.444) are pretty close as hitters.

Even if you nudge Guerrero up a bit based on his career accomplishment the speed increase on the bases while not completely conceding the DH spot is a no-brainer. This is not the old Grady Little classic of pinch running Damian Jackson for David Ortiz.

- I’m running a Conference for my company this week so several days of 5AM to 9PM days has kept me out of the loop on some things. I did not realize until today that the plan is to have Jon Lester pitch Game Four.

With that being the case what possible reason is there for Paul Byrd on the roster?

You’ve still got Matsuzaka as a long man and emergency Game Four starter if Lester had to throw 125 pitches Thursday night and the Sox could have carried Josh Reddick or even Chris Woodward, both players who would have been more likely to help in the series that Byrd would be.

Good: Mike Lowell made a sensational defensive play in the 4th robbing Torii Hunter of extra bases by diving to his right on a smoked line drive.

Bad: C.B. Bucknor was horrible behind the plate. To his credit his horribleness was even-handed and did not appear to impact the game but it seemed that with a lefty at the plate the pitcher just needed to throw the ball in the same ZIP code as the outside corner to get the call.

Ugly: I don’t like to be one of those guys who complains about the TV coverage but they keep doing such a poor job. Tonight the issue was some awful production values with constant static sounds flashing through. TBS just needs to start doing a better job.

Beyond that was Buck Martinez’ poor analysis work. First, he quoted anonymous scout(s) saying that Jason Bay had “above average” arm strength and Jacoby Ellsbury had “average” arm strength. Either he’s making stuff up or he needs new scouts to give him information because both of those statements are optimistic to the extreme.

Then, he said on both stolen bases that the runners had excellent jumps. TBS’ replays demonstrated that neither player had a particularly good jump.

Finally, in the third J.D. Drew grounded out to Weaver unassisted. It was a little bouncer to the right of the mound and Weaver came off the mound to grab it with Buck Martinez saying it was an easy play for Weaver because he falls off the mound to that side.

Buck Martinez was wrong. TBS had a nice replay they showed that saw Weaver sort of lazily bringing his back (right) leg forward and straight toward home plate. Weaver comes pretty straight to home plate and was able to make the play because it was a fairly easy play to make.